2021 Rotation

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  • #159378
    Avatargscottar
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    gscottar, my only quibble is that all playoff teams have good pitching and the teams without enough offense quickly drop by the wayside in the post-season. But getting there is the current quest.

    Yes, I view this team as a division winner but probably not anything more than that. We will need another good addition or two to be a serious world series contender.

    #159526
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    Oviedo posts a game score of 54 Wednesday evening and the string of plus starts continues, barely (SP’rs start the game with a neutral score of 50). Johan had held the Phillies to one run after facing their lineup twice through, but then Brad Miller in his third PA vs Johan took him deep and tied the score 3-3. Johan retired Hopkins to end the inning and his evening.

    5 IP, 3 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, 86 pitches, 49 strikes.
    ———-
    opposing batters have posted a .640 OPS vs our starters the first time through their lineup.
    A .690 OPS the second time through.
    A .831 OPS the third time through.

    Martinez and Wainwright have both been successful vs opposing lineups the third trip, to date.
    Carlos vs 28 batters has allowed a .549 OPS (which is outstanding)
    Wainwright vs 29 batters has allowed a .724 OPS

    And then the struggles begin:
    Flaherty vs 23 batters, 1.010 ops allowed third time through
    Gant vs 16 batters, 1.083
    PDL vs 3 batters, ).000 allowed
    KK vs 4 batters, 1.250
    Oviedo vs 2 batters, 2.500

    Because it’s early in the season and PDL / KK / Oviedo have limited starts, there are some dinky samples there. Overall, an .831 ops allowed by our rotation is high compared to the NL starters allowing a .743 OPS the third time through.

    #159531
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    He didn’t, he managed the inning. The next 13 batters made outs, and he did it without Yadi’s supervision. Hat-tip.

    Euro Dandy in response to this comment:

    Maybe working with Knizner was a positive in that situation. I recall CM being complimentary of Knizner earlier. Not saying Yadi is no longer effective with CM, but CM is not the most stable from a maturity standpoint and he might just a bit too comfy with Yadi these days. Having a different presence from a younger guy might make CM feel like he has to stand on his own two feet a bit more in the high stress moments.

    I think that he has something there so let’s see if CMart’s next start is as efficient. Has anyone seen any comments by Carlos regarding Knizner as his battery mate?

    #159651
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    KK posts a game score of 53 to continue the streak of above avg (50) starts by the rotation to eight. He did face the top three of the Phillies lineup a third time with three up and three down results.

    After 84 pitches KK was pinch hit for by Matt Carpenter, yielding a 3 run HR which put KK in line for a win. But A. Miller threw the Phillies right back in it during the 7th, with a pair of doubles while facing the three batter minimum, robbing KK of the W.

    This was KK’s third start on the season, recording game scores of 40, 63 and 53. During his last two starts he’s gone at least 5 IP allowing just one ER each outing, vs PHI and CIN, with an avg game score of 58. Yesterday afternoon he again “kept us in the game” until our bench players got to Nola.

    #159798
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    Gant posts a game score of 54 to continue the streak of above avg (50) starts by the rotation to nine. He did face the top three of the Pirates lineup a third time, recording a BB, ground ball DP and F8 flyout.

    Gant did himself no favors with a 5/2 BB/K ratio, needing 99 pitches to complete 5 IP. He allowed 3 singles and no extra base hits. One of Gants BB’s did account for his 1 ER allowed, with back to back walks in the 4th inning, followed by a single. The other three walks were nullified by two ground out DP’s, and two ground balls to end another inning.

    Gant is 2-2 on the season with an avg game score of 54 across 5 GS. His lowest Game Score has been 44, so far avoiding a real stinker of a start and “keeping us in the game”. His total for the season is 25 IP while allowing a .700 OPS. The lineup is averaging 1.8 runs during Gants IP, and 3.1 runs per 9 for the games he has started.

    #159799
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    I think you have to look at Gant as the guy who will eventually get replaced, either by Mikolas returning from injury or by Oviedo forcing Mo’s hand. He’s done an admirable job keeping the Cards in games, but his walk and K rates indicate that a reckoning is coming, sooner or later. Hopefully that happens in games where the offense picks him up.

    #159800
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    agree 25, the variable for me is, what’s best for Gants durability over the course of the season? Is this starting role more suited to keeping him healthy? Will that weigh in on the dugout brass decision on his role? I simply don’t know and am very curious to see how they handle Gants IP.

    #159802
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    I’m sure they will have some sort of decision to make there, but IMO you go with what gives the team the best chance to win at each juncture of the season. Certainly, a worn out Gant would be a concern for October but like anything, situations are fluid.

    For example, I could see a situation where our late season lefties in the pen could be Cabrera, Liberatore and Thompson and Oviedo could fill the Gant role for the team by then. Miller and Webb look very vulnerable, and if Gant wears down there are lots of good arms potentially available in Memphis.

    #159803
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    I’d just like to see Gant get to the postseason, he has no postseason stats for his career. We’ve been there in the last two seasons and Gants been unavailable. His usage as a reliever, up and down, every other day, etc., doesn’t seem to be favorable for his arm. But, he also may break down after 8 to 10 GS?

    We’re a better club with him, maybe it’s simply how many innings can we get from him before he does become unavailable again. Maybe that’s going to be his M.O. Glad it’s not my call 😉

    #159816
    Avatargscottar
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    Gant definitely needs to be in the pen. Not only is it a better fit for him but it is a better fit for the pen. Many of us assume we have a loaded pen but it actually is top heavy. Reyes and Gallegos are weapons but Hicks is still trying to regain his form, Cabrera and Helsley are wild cards, while Miller, Webb, and Ponce have been dismal. The pen needs Gant.

    #159817
    Avatarmudville
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    Grant made the comment after beating the Reds that he ‘loves starting’, and that he doesn’t like only being able to pitch an inning or two every now and then. He’s been pretty good as a starter, and if he keeps it up, he deserves to keep his spot in the rotation. Mikolas‘ pitch count needs to be increased gradually as a reliever, IMO. I could see Gant staying in the rotation and becoming trade bait either during or after this season.

    #159823
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    mud said:

    Mikolas‘ pitch count needs to be increased gradually as a reliever, IMO.

    Mikolas will not be activated until he is already ramped up to a starter’s pitch count. That prep will continue for the next few weeks.

    #159870
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    From the crazy good small sample size column, BR shows Flaherty receiving 10.3 runs support, per 9, after five games started. After his sixth start last night, his run support WENT UP! I know, that’s nuts. So when was the last 30 game winner? 😉 (a guy named Lolich is coming to mind)

    ——-

    Flaherty posts a game score of 55 to continue the rotations streak of above avg (50) starts to ten. Jack faced the Bucs lineup three times, throwing 104 pitches and yielding just a single the third time through their lineup.

    Jack went 6 IP, allowing 6 hits and 3 ER, improving his quality start % to 67%. Of his 6 hits allowed, one was a double and 5 singles. Versus Jack the Bucs went 5 for 9 on ground balls, over twice the BA mlb averages on ground balls. The Bucs accomplished a .400 BAbip vs Jack overall, largely on seeing eye ground balls, but his 2/9 BB/K helped him manage his innings with no DP’s being turned while Jack was on the mound.

    Flaherty is now 5-0 on the season with a game score average of 56.8 across six starts. He has logged 34.1 IP while allowing an opponents .617 OPS (.700 is league avg). His run support is now 10.6 runs per 9 in games started, and he’s averaging 5.7 IP per start.

    #159883
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    jj…. I like that you use Game Score as a measure of performance. I have been using it for years to track pitcher’s success and I also like WHIP as a ruler to measure pitcher’s efficiency. Two stats I keep in my back pocket. I always like to read your assessments.

    #159890
    Avatargscottar
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    I like WHIP also, in addition to batting average against. Those are two really good indicators of success.

    #159935
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    #159939
    Avatarblingboy
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    I’m not sure if Waino bringing up the rear is good or bad.

    #159942
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    Before todays start Martinez was a 4.76, lowering his ERA a full run in one fine start.

    #159943
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Carlos now leads the starters in WHIP, just slipping past Flaherty with today’s start.

    Martinez: 1.018
    Flaherty: 1.019
    Waino 1.256
    Kim 1.317
    Gang 1.560

    #159944
    AvatarPugsleyAddams
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    These last two CMart starts are more like what one would expect for a talented pitcher in a contract season. He should for the most part be on his best behavior until next February. If I had one and only one pitcher’s stat at my disposal, it would be WHIP….hands down.

    #159948
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    I’m a little less on the WHIP bandwagon, but would agree it tells exactly what it’s designed to do.

    #159950
    Avatarblingboy
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    Years ago, when we were all anxiously awaiting CMart to be called up for his debut, Brian referred to him as the Ferrari in the garage. We have seen glimmers of that ever since.

    #159951
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    Gant has the highest WHIP and lowest ERA. Why are the two stats conflicting?

    #159953
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Gant has the highest WHIP and lowest ERA. Why are the two stats conflicting?

    His walks are through the roof. KK is at 0.7 BB/9, Waino at 1.9, Carlos at 2.2, Jack at 2.6, and Gant at 6.5, entering today. When you’re giving up 0.72 walks per inning, it’s not hard for the WHIP to fly up there. Luckily for him and us, he’s had 6 double plays turned behind him. His BABIP allowed is a fairly normal .294. With men on base, however, he’s allowed a .163 average and with men in scoring position, an even better .154, allowing only 2 extra base hits with men on base and no homers. Hence the very good ERA.

    #159955
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    I knew it would be you 25, hat-tip. “Only 2 extra base hits w/men on base and no homers”

    WHIP charts baserunners per IP, as it’s designed to, but it has the “hits” flaw, just as batting average does. All hits are not created equal.

    Two starters throw in the first inning and both record three K’s, a hit and a BB. One pitcher gave up a two run HR and the other gave up a single. Same WHIP, different ERA.

    Gant has the lowest SLG% of the starters, the least total bases by %. With his GB% his walks have trouble scoring against a very stingy extra-base hit pitcher. This is why I like how GS looks at both OPS allowed and WHIP to get a picture of effectiveness.

Viewing 25 posts - 76 through 100 (of 134 total)
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