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Odds to Win the World Series
Tampa Bay Rays 6/5
Atlanta Braves 8/5
Los Angeles Dodgers 7/2
Houston Astros 40/1Because the offseason has officially begun, the first odds for the 2021 World Series are out, from @betonline_ag. The #stlcards are 33/1 to win it all next season after being 25/1 at this point one year ago.
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) October 28, 2020
I think their odds should be worse. They have already lost Hudson for probably the whole year. Mikolas is unknown with his injury. O’Neill, Bader, Thomas and Carlson did not show enough to prove they can provide an answer to the offense. Fowler and Carpenter are another year older and provided less than league average production in 2020. Molina and Wainwright are free agents. Wong is a free agent unless they pick up his option. Payroll is tight. There’s not a lot to optimistic about in 2021.
This is an interesting page to check out every now and then. Fangraphs keeps a running total of how the various teams project for the coming season by position by WAR. With the roster as it is right now, the Cards rank third in WAR in the division, eighth in the NL and 16th in MLB at 26.7 fWAR.
Worst positions are DH with a -0.2 and RF at 0.4. Best are shortstop at 3.3 and 1B at 2.9. They must be expecting a good season from DeJong.
Also interesting is that they have catcher (Knizner) at a very respectable 2.0 WAR, higher than Edman at 1.4 at second.
Does anyone ever check on their crystal ball? What were the Cardinal forecasts for last season? That would be interesting.
That’s accumulative fWAR by position BW. If you click the NL central / STL, they have Knizner at 1.1 and Edman at 1.7 overall. They like CMart and Gomber too. I hope Gomber gets those IP.
I think Gomber could become a real stud. I don’t know if we’ve ever had a lefty with a curveball that rises and drops like the one Gomber throws.
https://t.co/OioalZeEDw's @castrovince makes the #stlcards his too-early pick to win the 2021 National League Central Division. Why? Pitching depth. https://t.co/USfHFqDkID
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) November 15, 2020
Zips for 2021 is out…
ZIPS basically indicates the outfield is going to continue to be a big problem in 2021, with Fowler stinking and Carlson/O’Neill bringing less value that Edman/Sosa at 2B!
That’s a surprising and problematical forecast for the outfield.
Who’d have suspected it? A shock to many of us.If Fowler is going to be replacement level, I’d hope Shildt would have sense to bench him. Also, they have O’Neill as a below average fielder, which I’m pretty confident is not the case. But other than Bader, there’s not a lot good in the outfield from there. They are higher on almost every infielder than I would be, though. The catcher projection is laughable and off by 3-4 wins.
We need to rely on this outfield to help elevate us above that shameful #30 team ranking in HR, doubles, and total bases. Sure hope they can do that.
They’ll be playing a more normal schedule, so expect an offense more similar to 2019, bc. Middling power, solid on base skills, good on the bases. They should be around 15th-20th in runs. Pitching around 10th and defense top 5, especially if they bench Fowler. Should be around 80 wins if no Yadi, 85 with. Range of 75-90 wins.
It’s probably a one year reset, anyway. The money coming off the books after 2021 should allow the team to reload for a championship run in 2022-24.
Hoping for a short term band aid or two this off season. Like Pederson.
And just because they have a ton of money coming off the books in 2020 I don’t think they’re going to risk it on huge long term contracts to FA outsiders. Probably a Goldy/Heyward/Ozuna type trade or two. Pick up the last year or two on an existing contract, and extend if they fit in nicely.
Two of those trades turned out poorly for the team (and Goldy could end up there too), so hopefully they learned their lesson and don’t trade valuable prospects for players. There’s no way they run a $100M payroll for two years without getting absolutely roasted by fans and media.
There’s almost no one I’d be interested in trading significant prospects for in arbitration right now. It would be foolish to even try. Prospects+ money or money only? Super easy call, IMO.
His opening line is exactly what I said in the payroll thread regarding the Cardinal team building model. I am hoping next winter we finally take it up a notch.
Can we just say 87 wins and call it a day? It feels like that’s what I’ve been projecting for the Cardinals for the last 15 years or so.
I don’t mind paying big bucks for a player for a test drive. But if you don’t know him and you give him a 5 year contract (or longer) you’re taking a big risk. And Ozuna? The Cards should have extended him. He wanted to stay here. The perfect protection for Goldy.
But if you don’t know him and you give him a 5 year contract (or longer) you’re taking a big risk.
This isn’t 1975. You see almost every player at some point in a year, and scouts and other players can see how they play and what kind of teammate they are. I think the idea that you must get a player for a couple of years before it makes sense to commit to him is a good way to cost yourself wins. That’s the real risk.
Projections exist to help teams make such decisions. The Cards clearly have had some issues with theirs in the last couple of years.
“He wanted to stay here” so badly he declined the STL Q-offer and signed elsewhere for basically the same offer. Too funny.
ODDS BY Fox Bet
TEAM FUTURE
2021 WORLD SERIES CHAMPION
St. Louis Cardinals
+3500TEAM FUTURE
2021 NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPION
St. Louis Cardinals
+1700Just laying out BDW’s philosophy, 25 – get to know how a player plays under pressure, what kind of a teammate he is, how he interfaces with the manager and coaching staff, how he is with all the fans, and how he is within the community, does he care more about the name on the front of his uniform than the number on the back, etc.
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