Cardinals Odds and Projections

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  • #144503
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    The latest.

    Odds to Win the World Series
    Tampa Bay Rays 6/5
    Atlanta Braves 8/5
    Los Angeles Dodgers 7/2
    Houston Astros 40/1

    #145895
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    #145901
    Avatarforsch31
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    Free

    I think their odds should be worse. They have already lost Hudson for probably the whole year. Mikolas is unknown with his injury. O’Neill, Bader, Thomas and Carlson did not show enough to prove they can provide an answer to the offense. Fowler and Carpenter are another year older and provided less than league average production in 2020. Molina and Wainwright are free agents. Wong is a free agent unless they pick up his option. Payroll is tight. There’s not a lot to optimistic about in 2021.

    #147087
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    This is an interesting page to check out every now and then. Fangraphs keeps a running total of how the various teams project for the coming season by position by WAR. With the roster as it is right now, the Cards rank third in WAR in the division, eighth in the NL and 16th in MLB at 26.7 fWAR.

    Worst positions are DH with a -0.2 and RF at 0.4. Best are shortstop at 3.3 and 1B at 2.9. They must be expecting a good season from DeJong.

    Also interesting is that they have catcher (Knizner) at a very respectable 2.0 WAR, higher than Edman at 1.4 at second.

    https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team

    #147138
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    Does anyone ever check on their crystal ball? What were the Cardinal forecasts for last season? That would be interesting.

    #147146
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    That’s accumulative fWAR by position BW. If you click the NL central / STL, they have Knizner at 1.1 and Edman at 1.7 overall. They like CMart and Gomber too. I hope Gomber gets those IP.

    #147148
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Thanks for the clarification, 25. That makes more sense.

    #147152
    Avatarmudville
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    I think Gomber could become a real stud. I don’t know if we’ve ever had a lefty with a curveball that rises and drops like the one Gomber throws.

    #147386
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    #150257
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    #150267
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    ZIPS basically indicates the outfield is going to continue to be a big problem in 2021, with Fowler stinking and Carlson/O’Neill bringing less value that Edman/Sosa at 2B!

    #150268
    Avatarbccran
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    That’s a surprising and problematical forecast for the outfield.
    Who’d have suspected it? A shock to many of us.

    #150269
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    If Fowler is going to be replacement level, I’d hope Shildt would have sense to bench him. Also, they have O’Neill as a below average fielder, which I’m pretty confident is not the case. But other than Bader, there’s not a lot good in the outfield from there. They are higher on almost every infielder than I would be, though. The catcher projection is laughable and off by 3-4 wins.

    #150271
    Avatarbccran
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    We need to rely on this outfield to help elevate us above that shameful #30 team ranking in HR, doubles, and total bases. Sure hope they can do that.

    #150272
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    They’ll be playing a more normal schedule, so expect an offense more similar to 2019, bc. Middling power, solid on base skills, good on the bases. They should be around 15th-20th in runs. Pitching around 10th and defense top 5, especially if they bench Fowler. Should be around 80 wins if no Yadi, 85 with. Range of 75-90 wins.

    #150274
    Avatarbccran
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    Ouch, 25, that’s kind of depressing for this proud and extraordinarily success franchise.

    #150276
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    It’s probably a one year reset, anyway. The money coming off the books after 2021 should allow the team to reload for a championship run in 2022-24.

    #150277
    Avatarbccran
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    Hoping for a short term band aid or two this off season. Like Pederson.

    And just because they have a ton of money coming off the books in 2020 I don’t think they’re going to risk it on huge long term contracts to FA outsiders. Probably a Goldy/Heyward/Ozuna type trade or two. Pick up the last year or two on an existing contract, and extend if they fit in nicely.

    #150280
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Two of those trades turned out poorly for the team (and Goldy could end up there too), so hopefully they learned their lesson and don’t trade valuable prospects for players. There’s no way they run a $100M payroll for two years without getting absolutely roasted by fans and media.

    There’s almost no one I’d be interested in trading significant prospects for in arbitration right now. It would be foolish to even try. Prospects+ money or money only? Super easy call, IMO.

    #150285
    Avatargscottar
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    His opening line is exactly what I said in the payroll thread regarding the Cardinal team building model. I am hoping next winter we finally take it up a notch.

    Can we just say 87 wins and call it a day? It feels like that’s what I’ve been projecting for the Cardinals for the last 15 years or so.

    #150288
    Avatarbccran
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    I don’t mind paying big bucks for a player for a test drive. But if you don’t know him and you give him a 5 year contract (or longer) you’re taking a big risk. And Ozuna? The Cards should have extended him. He wanted to stay here. The perfect protection for Goldy.

    #150290
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    But if you don’t know him and you give him a 5 year contract (or longer) you’re taking a big risk.

    This isn’t 1975. You see almost every player at some point in a year, and scouts and other players can see how they play and what kind of teammate they are. I think the idea that you must get a player for a couple of years before it makes sense to commit to him is a good way to cost yourself wins. That’s the real risk.

    Projections exist to help teams make such decisions. The Cards clearly have had some issues with theirs in the last couple of years.

    #150294
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    “He wanted to stay here” so badly he declined the STL Q-offer and signed elsewhere for basically the same offer. Too funny.

    #150298
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    St. Louis Cardinals
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    #150304
    Avatarbccran
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    Just laying out BDW’s philosophy, 25 – get to know how a player plays under pressure, what kind of a teammate he is, how he interfaces with the manager and coaching staff, how he is with all the fans, and how he is within the community, does he care more about the name on the front of his uniform than the number on the back, etc.

Viewing 25 posts - 176 through 200 (of 224 total)
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