- This topic has 648 replies, 46 voices, and was last updated 1 week, 3 days ago by
.
-
Posts
-
If the Cards can again avoid significant pitcher injuries, the team could do about as well as last season. the 2025 team was around .500 all year so this year’s team could be also. Lack of depth, pitching and position player, is a factor, so injuries will make a difference.
The only reason i can see the cardinals being 500 by seasons end is if mlb is mostly made up of 500 teams or worse. Just going by our division i expect every team in our division to win more than us with the exception of maybe pittsburgh. Their ownership is even more clueless on how to win.
Take the under. Looks like a 65 to 68 win team and that may be too high. This is going to be remembered as a very dark time in the franchise history.
Are Mikolas, Fedde, and Arenado (at this stage in their careers) really that much of a loss?
I’m going to say that we get better numbers than they out up.
I’ll take over as long as Donovan stays and Walker is on the shortest of leashes.
As the roster sits today I’ll go 75 – 78 wins.
But what about the losses of Gray and Contreras and Helsley? Will they be covered by emerging players, too?
May, Libby, McGreevy, Leahy, Fitts, Dobbins, Mathews and “big sigh” Pallante > Gray, Mikolas, Fedde, Libby, “big sigh” Pallante and McGreevy.
Also, Mautz and Henderson could get 8-12 starts if May is moved, injuries, etc
The ERA of the 2026 Cardinals will be lower that the 2025 starters. If I could bet a $2 bill on that I would.
The Cards definitely won the Helsley trade, even with just the arms. And after seeing what he did in NY and he wasn’t signing here long term.
Unfortunately, Im definitely not as high on Jesus Baez after reading/hearing about him the last few months.Reminds me to much of Carlos Martinez.
Brian,
In the aggregate, yes I think those three guys production will be replaced.
A full year of Burleson at 1b probably doesn’t look that much different than Contreras.
Not having Mikolas and Fedde probably more that offsets the loss of Gray.
It’s the OF that has me spooked. Church, Scott, Walker to start the year (Noot probably not ready for the start of the season) is a bad an OF as I’ve ever seen. It’s just putrid. If The Cards keep Donovan and put him out there with Wetherholt taking second and I guess Gorman at third – that’ll help the OF. Maybe Bloom gets a ML average RH OF to shore it up out there as well.
I also think that as a rebuilding team that will likely be out of the playoffs anyway instead of just throwing in the towel and trying this or that prospect out at different positions the last month – I think the starting lineup will stay more or less intact for the duration which will likely lead to some ‘cheap’ victories late in the year to push the win total a little bit higher than you’d otherwise see.
It’s the OF that has me spooked. Church, Scott, Walker to start the year
I think Scott will take a big step forward this year on offense. His defense is already top tier, and I think he will develop into a force on offense as well. He seems to have good mechanics at the plate, and of course has the physical ability. Just needs to keep getting the reps, improve his contact rate, and then build the confidence.
Walker I do not have much confidence in. His plate mechanics are not good, and while his defense has gotten better he still has work to do.
Church did not impress me last year, but I need to see more of him to develop an opinion. Some on here are high on him.
Add Donovan to the OF and suddenly its not so bad. Church-Scott-Donovan. Not a great OF but you can’t go into the season with Walker penciled as a starter. He really needs to show that he can at least hit AAA pitching.
I’m with NY 100% regarding Walker starting in Memphis. Unless he crushes the ball in ST there is no need for it, plenty of FA reclamation projects out there that could be trade bait in July.
Both of Hayes and Andujar are surely in the budget along with a SP and LHRP.
Losing Gray hurts. We don’t have a replacement for him.
Losing Arenado’s defense hurts but replacing his offense shouldn’t be a problem.
Contreras was a good player but I think Burly will up to the task of replacing him.
Losing Mikolas, Fedde, and Helsley doesn’t bother me at all.
If we lose Donovan that will be hard to replace unless Wetherholt wins ROY.
I think we are a 75 win team right now. That is about as high as I can go.
Those who believe Burly will replace Contreras, I can understand it. But then who is going to replace Burly’s offense? Feels a bit like a shell game. In other words, where is the incremental offense coming from? Who are these new/better hitters, other than JJ, perhaps?
Who are these new/better hitters, other than JJ, perhaps?
Plus the likelihood Donovan is traded. 26 is shaping up as a “hope” season, and we all know that’s a bad plan.
It would have to come from Wetherholt and / or a league average hitting RH OF to replace whatever that is that Walker does at the plate.
There are a lot of ‘ifs’ for sure but all we are looking for is 75 wins lol – not a playoff team, not a contending team, not even a winning team.
If they can’t pull that off then oooof…
There are a lot of potential offense increases, but whether or not it happens is anyone’s guess. Among them:
Donovan – if he is here
Burleson – not too hard to think he can be better; shows a lot of ability
Herrera – needs to stay healthy, but is probably the guy who is most likely to put up much better numbers
Pages/Pozo – seems like Pages can be better; Pozo could really be good but hard to say unless he plays more regularly
Winn – should get better over the next few seasons
Wetherholt – a wild card
Scott – should improve over the next few seasons
Gorman – it’s all about improving his contact and pitch selection
Walker – the window is closing on him, but not shut yet – probably has one more shot to show something
Saggese – another one who should improve as he plays moreI have them at 75-79 wins right now. Starting pitching a bit better. Bullpen probably a little worse just because they were so good last year, but it’s possible they could be close to as good. Defense is around the same. Getting Burleson out of the outfield helps. Losing Arenado at 3B hurts. Wetherholt may be a slight upgrade at 2B. Burleson likely a slight downgrade at 1B just because Contreras played so well. The offense is the huge question mark:
Contreras is a huge bat to replace.
Donovan could be gone. That would hurt.
Walker can’t be worse. And if he is or just as bad, the leash should be short.
Scott can’t be worse.
Nootbaar is probably going to be better.
Wetherholt is somewhat unknown but should be good.
Gorman likely hits better than Arenado.
Herrera likely plays more and potentially gets at bats at catcher upgrading Pozo/Pages.It’s entirely possible the pitching and offense and defense are all improved from’25. Not likely we get all 3, but it’s not even much of a stretch that it could happen. Losing Donovan diminishes at least the offense and maybe the team all around.
But then who is going to replace Burly’s offense? Feels a bit like a shell game. In other words, where is the incremental offense coming from?
There is no increment to make up. Last year, Contreras, Burly and Herrera shared two lineup slots. This year, presumably, Burly and Herrera will occupy those slots.
Pages is my breakout candidate.
Herrera is in LF, Scott/Church CF, Noot/Walker RF.
DH utility is Donny, JJ at 2B. Burly 1B, Gorman/Saggese 3B, Winn SS.Donny & Noot will be “next” eventually, but we can prioritize positions now for the long term, with our core. These would be my runways the 1st half.
The W/L could get ugly the 2nd half (Donny/Noot) and if we trade chip the bullpen for debuts.
bling said:
There is no increment to make up. Last year, Contreras, Burly and Herrera shared two lineup slots. This year, presumably, Burly and Herrera will occupy those slots.
That seems plausible on the surface, but a quick check of the numbers refutes the assertion.
Last season, the three played in a total of 381 games. Dividing by two indicates the two remaining would have to play in 190 games each in 2026. As far as I can tell, that would be impossible. Whoever fills the gap will almost certainly not produce anywhere near what the three do.
The reason why is that the three played 89 games in total at positions other than first base and DH last season. They are 89 games that conceivably all three were in the lineup (though I did not check).
In 2025, the three totaled 1561 plate appearances. Dividing by two gets us to 780 PAs each for 2026. Last season, no Cardinal had as many as 600. The last time any Cardinal had as many as 700 PAs was in 2014. As a point of reference, Albert never had more than 700 in any season in his entire career.
In terms of production, the two remaining would have to incrementally hit 20 more home runs and drive in 80 more runs between them than they did in 2025. That would be a tremendous uptick that I do not think is realistic.
So, as I said, where is the incremental offense coming from?
Thinking of offense, the guy most likely to have a career year in my opinion is Donovan, and he might not even be on the club.
I would keep him, and hope to leverage his 2026 season into an even better possible trade chip for next year. Or if he does have a big year, we could do like Mozeliak did a lot and give him an extension and market him as the face of the franchise. Bloom might not be so generous though. 🙂
It certainly is plausible that both Winn and Scott boost their offensive totals from last year. That could help offset the loss of Contreras. I am counting on a boost from Wetherholt as well.
Of course we don’t know what the opening day roster is going to look like yet. Donovan could be gone but a new bat could be on the way. Time will tell.
ZIPs projections are not available for Arenado, but I imagine Wetherholt is 1.0-1.5 wins higher than Arenado. That is the only immediate position player upgrade I see as most of the rest are the same at the moment. Instead, we have to count on improvements from guys if the team wants to win more games. The rotation is probably about the same as last year with losing Gray but also addition by subtraction of Fedde and Mikolas.
There are paths for the offense to be better by a decent amount. The most readily available offensive improvement is Herrera if he can start at C over Pages. Pages is a serviceable C but Herrera is a 45-50 OPS+ improvement over Pages. For that to matter though, they need someone who can properly hit at DH which I imagine Gorman is slotted to start DH most days. Gorman drives me crazy as he has the potential and he had made improvements last year the 1st half with his approach and wasn’t swinging at so many bad pitches but that faded over the year.
Walker is the other DH option if he flounders in RF but does pick it back up with the stick. He was at a 116 wRC+ his rookie year. If he can get anywhere close to that it will be a massive improvement. Burleson has done much better than I expected but unsure if we should expect more than a 120 wRC+ from him. If he could get to a 135 wRC+ then that would be a major win for the offense.
Summarizing questions / possibilities on ways I can see the offense improving. Even half of these coming to fruition the Cards will be lucky. Ranking in order of potential improvement.
1. Can Herrera stick at C?
2. Can Wetherholt live up to the hype and be + MLB hitter?
3. Can Walker improve his bat in RF or DH?
4. Can Gorman up his game at DH?
5. How much improvement does Burleson have left?Winn and Scott have room to improve, but if they improve, they go from 8-9 hitters to more like 6-8 type hitters most likely. For the offense to really improve, they need a bopper.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.