Cardinals Odds and Projections

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  • #150305
    Avatarbccran
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    Yes, Ozuna wanted to stay here and was looking for a multi year contract from the Cardinals. When he didn’t get it,
    he looked for it among other teams. The qualifying offer (only) from the Cardinals burned the bridge on both sides.
    Neither party came back to the table. Too bad.

    #150381
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    get to know how a player plays under pressure, what kind of a teammate he is, how he interfaces with the manager and coaching staff, how he is with all the fans, and how he is within the community, does he care more about the name on the front of his uniform than the number on the back, etc.

    I know DeWitt is at the top, but this evaluation is certainly not part of Mozeliak’s strategy. I think he likes to go saber and the heck with what you have stated above.

    #150383
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    The reality that is ignored in the newest chapter of the same Ozuna rehashing is that the Cardinals did NOT want him back, on either a one-year deal or a multi-year deal. They made the QO only because they knew the odds were very high that he would not accept.

    Any bridges that were burned were torched over the prior two years, not after he became a free agent. Again, the Cardinals did not want Ozuna back. They were never at the negotiating table in the first place, so they wouldn’t come back to it later.

    As Ozuna explored his market, he found that he could not get a realistic multi-year offer – from ANY team. That confirms he perceived his value to be higher than it really was.

    It is great for him that he resurrected his value in Atlanta. Both sides lucked out that the DH was added later, which enabled him to maximize his contribution in 2020. Whether he could have or would have performed that well had he remained with St. Louis is anyone’s guess, however.

    We do know that Ozuna did not come anywhere near his 2020 level of offense in his two prior years with the Cardinals – or during his five years with Miami, either. Some wonder if his career-best 2020 was a 60-game anomaly. It seems a fair question. It will be interesting to see what the new contract he scores this winter looks like and how he goes on to perform in 2021.

    But no matter what, I don’t understand the revisionist view of his time as a Cardinal and how and why he departed – every time it is brought up.

    P.S. The last time Ozuna was raised, it was asserted that multiple sports writers had written that the Cardinals are interested in Ozuna THIS winter. When asked to share evidence of that, the discussion quickly ended – until popping up again here on yet another thread…

    #150405
    Avatarbccran
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    The fact of the matter is that people are in error when they say Ozuna didn’t perform here. If you want to compare it to his big year in Miami or his big year in Atlanta, sure. But in 2019 he had 29 home runs and 89 RBI in only 130 games. Playing with a sore shoulder. With no one protecting him in the lineup. If Fowler, Bader, O’Neill, or Thomas ever produced that, you’d be doing cartwheels.

    #150409
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    If Fowler, Bader, O’Neill, or Thomas ever produced that, you’d be doing cartwheels.

    Not Fowler, but if Bader, O’Neill or Thomas ever produced that they’d be 5+ WAR players because they’re not DHs like Ozuna. As is, Ozuna was a middling player here. Mediocre. Expendable. He burned his bridges with bad off-season preparation. I don’t understand at all why you continually defend a guy who showed that he didn’t care about what the front office asked him to do.

    #150414
    Avatarbccran
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    I guess because –

    1.) He showed his potential in Miami.
    2.) He was hurt here – maybe it affected his off season work out schedule.
    3.) He had no protection here behind him in the line up.
    4. Even with an injury and no protection he was one of the top hitters on the team.
    5.) He had won a gold glove, and could possibly return to being at least an average fielder when his shoulder healed.

    #150469
    Avatargscottar
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    Ozuna was OK with the Cardinals but they didn’t trade for him to be just OK. They needed him to be the player he was in Miami and Atlanta but he wasn’t. He put up decent offensive numbers but not great and on defense he looked like a bumbling little leaguer out there bouncing off walls and could only throw the ball 20 feet. And his off the field preparation looked like something CMart would come up with.

    #150473
    Avatargscottar
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    #150490
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    To translate, ZiPS has the Cardinals between 85-90 wins, with six wins being a pretty wide gap if you think about it. I guess four to nine wins over .500 is cause for celebration – at least when compared to Steamer’s dismal 78-win projection, three games under .500.

    Sort of like saying it feels so good – when you stop hitting your thumb with a hammer… 😉

    Seriously, 90 wins might take the division, but 85 feels like a return to Wild Card City and a first-round date with a better opponent. I think I know how it ends…

    #150492
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Seriously, 90 wins might take the division, but 85 feels like a return to Wild Card City and a first-round date with a better opponent. I think I know how it ends…

    Well, the Cards beat what most considered the better team in 2019 in the Braves, then were a bullpen implosion from beating the Padres last year. Anything can happen, although all in all you’d tend to go with the more talented team. 85 wins is my call for now but there’s still time to make a key move. We shall see.

    #150495
    Avatarbccran
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    All we need is to improve the offense to get to 90+. Especially that OF.

    #150524
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    ZiPS Has Good News for the Cardinals.

    Mozeliak must be damn proud of our right-fielder’s 0.1 and our third-baseman’s 1.7. If you look around there are many sub-2.0s. He would have to pick DeWitt’s pocket or convince him to fork over over some to fix this team for ’21. So far neither has occurred happened so they will keep wishing and hoping for all of our under-achievers to finally start playing at the level they are being paid.

    Why there are folks here defending his past record. 2021 is now (+- a few days). Our Ruler and this Cardinal team is fortunate to be in the NLC division where there is near below mediocre teams and all waning at the start of the new decade. The 2020 team was exposed in the play-offs against SD.

    #150526
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    The “fix” is said to be 1.1 Wainwright and 1.1 Molina. The sub-2.0s group may be getting larger.

    #150530
    Avatargscottar
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    I don’t see how any team in the NLC will make to 90 wins. It is going to look like the NFC East does this year in the NFL. Not pretty.

    • This reply was modified 4 weeks ago by Avatargscottar.
    #150960
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com predicts the Cardinals will win the NL Central with the Brewers a Wild Card if there are 12 teams in the playoffs. He doesn’t see the Cubs or Reds making it even if there are 16 teams (which is more than Manfred says he wants).

    https://www.mlb.com/news/2021-mlb-predictions

    #151039
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    There is never any methodology shown behind these, but MLB regularly publishes power rankings of all 30 teams. In their first 2021 rankings, here is now they have the Central.

    12. StL
    15. Cubs
    16. Cin
    18. Mil
    30. Pit

    https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-power-rankings-to-begin-2021

    #151043
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Those first set of MLB predictions are pretty bold. Blue Jays and Braves? I’d be surprised. But I do like the picks for the division winners for the most part. The Cards need one more upgrade to 3B, even a slight one, and I think they easily handle the Central.

    #151045
    Avatargscottar
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    Those NLC rankings look about right to me. The top 4 will be bunched together with the Pirates solidly at the bottom. I would probably flip the Brewers and Reds as I think having Yelich getting back to normal and having Cain back in the lineup will definitely help the Crew.

    #151046
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    For many of the other teams, this is too early in the offseason for me to put too much importance in these rankings. Some of these teams will be signing the top free agents ahead, which could change the balance.

    However, for the Central, it is too early for the opposite reason. They still have more time to dump players and reduce payroll further… 😉

    #151065
    Avatargscottar
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    #151717
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Did these guys miss all the talent that left Cincy? Or did Bauer re-sign and I just missed it?

    #151718
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    The Reds still have two very, very good starters and some quality position player talent. I wouldn’t say they are the favorites over the Cards, who have an overall better staff and at least equal position talent. But they are a team I have as 2nd in the division this coming year.

    #151719
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    Fangraphs lists CIN as losing 4.7 war from 2020, STL as losing 3.5

    Of course the betting lines are about who’s left, but the roster losses (edit) are closer than I would have thought.

    • This reply was modified 1 week, 3 days ago by jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl.
    #151723
    Euro DandyEuro Dandy
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    Free

    Odds to Win NL:
    Cincinnati Reds 33/1
    Chicago Cubs 22/1
    St. Louis Cardinals 25/1
    Milwaukee Brewers 33/1
    Pittsburgh Pirates 100/1

    Odds to Win World Series:
    Cincinnati Reds 16/1
    Chicago Cubs 40/1
    St. Louis Cardinals 40/1
    Milwaukee Brewers 66/1
    Pittsburgh Pirates 200/1

Viewing 24 posts - 201 through 224 (of 224 total)
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