Cardinals Odds and Projections

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  • #121406
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Wishing the ownership/front office would have done more has led to some folks devaluing what has already proven to be a good team simply because they wanted it to be even better. No difference between baby and bathwater.

    #121409
    Avatarbccran
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    Maybe the Cards fans just want a little more to cheer about on the offensive side of the equation –

    2019 –

    #19 in runs scored
    #28 in doubles
    #18 in triples
    #24 in home runs
    #25 in total bases
    #23 in batting average
    #23 in slugging percentage
    #21 in OPS

    And that’s with Ozuna’s 29 home runs and 89 runs batted in.

    Fans at the ballpark (and watching at home) like good pitching and defense, but they also like to cheer for their Cardinals running around those bases.

    #121417
    Avatarmspaid
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    I’m not sure how this team has proven to be a good one. I would suggest that 16, 17 and 18 were far from good years. In 19 they put on a push and won a weak division on the last day. They had no chance to win the WS against Dodgers, Nationals, Yankees or Astros. To be fair to the Cardinals…the Twins, Brewers and Braves had no chance to win the WS either. The Cardinals were in the lower half of the eight playoff teams. I want them to be in the upper four…a powerhouse but with Junior’s business model they’ll never be anything but competitive. The money is there and always has been. So, I or anyone else could easily “devalue” what they have done because they haven’t done enough. They traded for Goldschmidt…good but you can’t stop there. It clearly wasn’t enough. They need to acquire more talent like that or better from the outside. But they choose to bring up prospects hoping for a Pujols or Molina. Not going to happen. Rasmus was the second coming and now Carlson. Prospects have one purpose for me and that is to trade for “proven” good players from other teams. Yes, I want them to be better and I will devalue what they’ve done if they continue to fail to make the team a better one. True; making moves doesn’t guarantee success. But if you need to make improvements to make the team better it requires moves. You certainly are not going to get any better by doing nothing. Baby or Bathwater? On a mediocre team…what is the difference?

    #121419
    Avatarbccran
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    I disagree that you always need to trade prospects for proven major league talent. You do that to fill a hole or two as you’re continually building from within. That being said, I wish they had gotten one more short term bat for the OF ala
    a Beltran type. Just for a safety factor. If the kids don’t come through, they’ll have to add that bat at the trade deadline.

    #121433
    AvatarMinuteman3
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    <mspaid wrote: On a mediocre team…what is the difference?>

    Mediocre the Cardinals ain’t and haven’t been for a long time. To make it to the NLCS with a lack of offense is a good statement that something is working – defense and pitching. They have the tools for the offense but they need to produce or be gone. I foresee good things offensively this season. JMHO

    #121473
    Avatarbccran
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    I have the same hopes, minuteman.
    Where do you think the increased offense will come from?

    #121477
    AvatarMinuteman3
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    <bccran wrote: I have the same hopes, minuteman.
    Where do you think the increased offense will come from?>

    Well my hopes rest on the likes of Goldy, Edman, Wong, DeJong, Molina primarily but a touch or two of offense from Carpenter, Fowler, ONeil and other outfielders will be of great assistance. Overall I do see improvement. If none is seen then it may be time for new players or hitting coaches. I have never been a big Carpenter fan but he wears the birds on the bat so I am happy to see whatever he adds and, at times, last season he did come through. A lot more of that is necessary.

    #121479
    Avatarbccran
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    Minuteman –

    IMHO, the infield and catcher are fine. The offensive key to this coming season is in the OF.
    Here’s how the “candidates” did last season –

    Fowler – .238/.346/.409/.754
    Bader – .205/.314/.366/.680
    O’Neill – .262/.311/.411/.723
    Dean – .225/.261/.404/.665

    Thomas (AAA) – .268/.352/.460/.812
    Williams (AAA) – .353/.437/.608/1 .045 (only 102 at bats)
    Carlson – (AA) – .281/.364/.518/.882 (had 72 AAA at bats at the end of the season).

    Who’s going to step up and REALLY help this probable playoff team?

    #121524
    Avatar1982 willie
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    mspaid nails it on the head. you keep prospects when they are cant miss guys. very few of our guys have proven to be that for a while on the offensive side of things anyway. you trade em for proven talent. there will be guys there in the draft just as capable as them at putting up flashy numbers in the minors. like I say. teams like the dodgers, yankees, and a few others try to make moves to win. the cards ownership, they just sit back and hope. now a naïve person could say some of those teams haven’t won the world series in a bit but at least they are giving the effort and promoting the game on the national front at the same time. unless the cards have some bad deed going on, they hardly get mentioned. yea they might bring them up as a possible contender but not really pick them to get the job done.

    #122052
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system is not too impressed with the Cards…

    https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

    #122065
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Because PECOTA is a changing target, I did a screenshot of today’s view.

    null

    #122079
    Avatarbccran
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    When a team is in the bottom half of the MLB in 2019 in almost every offensive category, loses one of it’s top two run producers to FA, and doesn’t do anything to improve over the off season, the guys who rate your team are going to take all of those things into consideration.

    #122080
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    bccran, that is far from a unanimous view. Are the 2020 Cards really 11 wins worse than last year?

    You don’t even have to be that down on the team. You can go to your bookmaker right now and take the under on the Cards winning 88 1/2 games. Maybe you will get rich. 😉

    #122085
    Avatarmspaid
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    People are getting carried away with the Reds. They could better than last year but the division? That’s a stretch. As bad as the Cardinals offense will be this year, I would still pick them as first or second in the division because it is a weak division. I’d say 86 to 88 wins. Cubs could wake up and win it.

    #123583
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    #123608
    AvatarBob Reed
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    Thanks for posting those odds, Brian.
    At the Bookmaker.eu website the division numbers look like this:

    Cards +195
    cubs +205
    Reds +257
    Brewers +530
    Bucs +20000

    And to win the Pennant:

    StL +1085
    Chi +1269
    Cin +1912
    Mil +2547
    Pit +21500

    The Pirates to win the division would be the obvious value bet, if they had more than Ke’Bryan Hayes in the upper minors. As it is, I don’t see a real good wager, other than the over on the Cards’ win total — our boys have beaten the Vegas number by a cumulative 53 wins during Mozeliak’s 12-year tenure, or a whisker under 4.5 wins per season on the average. (Under Mo the very worst Redbird performance vs. Vegas was a decade ago, when they fell just 2.5 wins short of the number.)

    #123940
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

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    From betonline.ag:

    To Make the Playoffs – St. Louis Cardinals
    Yes +110 (11/10)
    No -130 (10/13)

    #123961
    AvatarBob Reed
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    Yeah, bets like that give me the heebie jeebies, Brian. We all know how a team can be very good and still via the caprice of Dame Fortune not make the postseason.

    Last year it was Cleveland with 93 wins. The year before Tampa missed despite 90 victories. While I don’t think the 2020 Senior Circuit will be deep in 90-win teams, well, to quote a famous St. Louisan you never can tell.

    #124952
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    An article defending the PECOTA prediction of 81 wins for the Cardinals written from a perspective that would make your average, run-of-the-mill Negative Nancy look positive, done while painting all Cardinals fans with the same broad insulting brush.

    #124958
    Avatarbccran
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    I have always been a glass half full optimist about the Cardinals.
    Ever since the early 1950s, when I first became a fan. And I think they will make the playoffs this season (if we have any sort of season). But if they do, it will be because of pitching and defense, which both have a chance to be superb. On the offensive side, there will probably be a lot of low scoring games. I guess I’m turned off a bit by an outfielder who has a silly little cutsy bat flip, a curly cue Mohawk haircut, and boldly states without humility that he’s the starting center fielder for the St. Louis Cardinals after coming off a disastrous
    .205/.314/.366/.680 season.

    #125095
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
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    Are there vegas odds on a restart date?

    #125098
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    This was as of this Monday from betonline.ag:

    Will the Next MLB Game be Played June 1st or Sooner?
    Yes +300 (3/1)
    No -500 (1/5)

    #125127
    AvatarSoonerinNC
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    The Cardinals improved last year because of improved pitching, defense and base running. Their biggest problems were too many strikeouts and too many fly ball outs. Also my own observation is that we didn’t have many hitters who fouled off the marginal pitches with two strikes on them. Actually Fowler was one of the best on our team. Possibly that is why he usually has a decent OBP. The better hitters in the game do a good job of fouling off marginal pitches rather than trying to put them in play.

    If I read Shildt right he will be looking to reduce those things and do a better job of advancing base runners. Whether Albert’s approach is effective is one of the keys to improvement.

    I am encouraged by what appears to be a more mature approach by Wong. Looking more and more like an effective leadoff hitter.

    I am encouraged by the better at bats by DeJong and his reduction of strikeouts.

    I have hopes that Carpenter will use the whole field more. Edman appeared to be more like the 2019 Edman the last week of spring training. Maybe not a big dropoff if any.

    I like Thomas late surge and Carlson’s overall spring. One of them could end the season in left field.

    I am concerned about the continued high strikeout totals by O’Neill and Bader. Appears that they have a hard time of reading the pitches or lack the discipline to lay off the bad ones. Maybe still trying too hard to be power hitters. Bader needs to bunt more. His base running and defense will keep him on the team. Even if he doesn’t win the center field job.

    Not sure how to read Goldschmidt. Fewer strikeouts in the spring but small sample. If he improves over last year it will help but players of his age usually fade as they get older.

    I feel that our bullpen will be stronger and potentially much stronger with Hicks and Reyes coming on later in the season. Whitley a wild card here.

    #125136
    Avatarbccran
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    Sooner –

    Excellent pitching staff –
    both the rotation and the bullpen.

    C – fine
    1B – fine
    2B – fine
    SS – fine
    3B – fine (MC/TE/BM)
    LF – question mark
    CF – question mark
    RF – question mark

    The 2020 Cardinals in a nutshell.

    #125172
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Just as a stake in the ground for later comparison, here is where betonline.ag has the Cards currently:

    TO WIN WORLD SERIES: 25/1
    TO WIN NL PENNANT: 15/1
    REGULAR SEASON WIN TOTAL: 88.5

Viewing 25 posts - 51 through 75 (of 184 total)
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