2020 Cardinals Odds and Projections

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  • #121406
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Wishing the ownership/front office would have done more has led to some folks devaluing what has already proven to be a good team simply because they wanted it to be even better. No difference between baby and bathwater.

    #121409
    Avatarbccran
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    Maybe the Cards fans just want a little more to cheer about on the offensive side of the equation –

    2019 –

    #19 in runs scored
    #28 in doubles
    #18 in triples
    #24 in home runs
    #25 in total bases
    #23 in batting average
    #23 in slugging percentage
    #21 in OPS

    And that’s with Ozuna’s 29 home runs and 89 runs batted in.

    Fans at the ballpark (and watching at home) like good pitching and defense, but they also like to cheer for their Cardinals running around those bases.

    #121417
    Avatarmspaid
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    I’m not sure how this team has proven to be a good one. I would suggest that 16, 17 and 18 were far from good years. In 19 they put on a push and won a weak division on the last day. They had no chance to win the WS against Dodgers, Nationals, Yankees or Astros. To be fair to the Cardinals…the Twins, Brewers and Braves had no chance to win the WS either. The Cardinals were in the lower half of the eight playoff teams. I want them to be in the upper four…a powerhouse but with Junior’s business model they’ll never be anything but competitive. The money is there and always has been. So, I or anyone else could easily “devalue” what they have done because they haven’t done enough. They traded for Goldschmidt…good but you can’t stop there. It clearly wasn’t enough. They need to acquire more talent like that or better from the outside. But they choose to bring up prospects hoping for a Pujols or Molina. Not going to happen. Rasmus was the second coming and now Carlson. Prospects have one purpose for me and that is to trade for “proven” good players from other teams. Yes, I want them to be better and I will devalue what they’ve done if they continue to fail to make the team a better one. True; making moves doesn’t guarantee success. But if you need to make improvements to make the team better it requires moves. You certainly are not going to get any better by doing nothing. Baby or Bathwater? On a mediocre team…what is the difference?

    #121419
    Avatarbccran
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    I disagree that you always need to trade prospects for proven major league talent. You do that to fill a hole or two as you’re continually building from within. That being said, I wish they had gotten one more short term bat for the OF ala
    a Beltran type. Just for a safety factor. If the kids don’t come through, they’ll have to add that bat at the trade deadline.

    #121433
    AvatarMinuteman3
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    <mspaid wrote: On a mediocre team…what is the difference?>

    Mediocre the Cardinals ain’t and haven’t been for a long time. To make it to the NLCS with a lack of offense is a good statement that something is working – defense and pitching. They have the tools for the offense but they need to produce or be gone. I foresee good things offensively this season. JMHO

    #121473
    Avatarbccran
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    I have the same hopes, minuteman.
    Where do you think the increased offense will come from?

    #121477
    AvatarMinuteman3
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    <bccran wrote: I have the same hopes, minuteman.
    Where do you think the increased offense will come from?>

    Well my hopes rest on the likes of Goldy, Edman, Wong, DeJong, Molina primarily but a touch or two of offense from Carpenter, Fowler, ONeil and other outfielders will be of great assistance. Overall I do see improvement. If none is seen then it may be time for new players or hitting coaches. I have never been a big Carpenter fan but he wears the birds on the bat so I am happy to see whatever he adds and, at times, last season he did come through. A lot more of that is necessary.

    #121479
    Avatarbccran
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    Minuteman –

    IMHO, the infield and catcher are fine. The offensive key to this coming season is in the OF.
    Here’s how the “candidates” did last season –

    Fowler – .238/.346/.409/.754
    Bader – .205/.314/.366/.680
    O’Neill – .262/.311/.411/.723
    Dean – .225/.261/.404/.665

    Thomas (AAA) – .268/.352/.460/.812
    Williams (AAA) – .353/.437/.608/1 .045 (only 102 at bats)
    Carlson – (AA) – .281/.364/.518/.882 (had 72 AAA at bats at the end of the season).

    Who’s going to step up and REALLY help this probable playoff team?

    #121524
    Avatar1982 willie
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    mspaid nails it on the head. you keep prospects when they are cant miss guys. very few of our guys have proven to be that for a while on the offensive side of things anyway. you trade em for proven talent. there will be guys there in the draft just as capable as them at putting up flashy numbers in the minors. like I say. teams like the dodgers, yankees, and a few others try to make moves to win. the cards ownership, they just sit back and hope. now a naïve person could say some of those teams haven’t won the world series in a bit but at least they are giving the effort and promoting the game on the national front at the same time. unless the cards have some bad deed going on, they hardly get mentioned. yea they might bring them up as a possible contender but not really pick them to get the job done.

    #122052
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system is not too impressed with the Cards…

    https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

    #122065
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

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    Because PECOTA is a changing target, I did a screenshot of today’s view.

    null

    #122079
    Avatarbccran
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    When a team is in the bottom half of the MLB in 2019 in almost every offensive category, loses one of it’s top two run producers to FA, and doesn’t do anything to improve over the off season, the guys who rate your team are going to take all of those things into consideration.

    #122080
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    bccran, that is far from a unanimous view. Are the 2020 Cards really 11 wins worse than last year?

    You don’t even have to be that down on the team. You can go to your bookmaker right now and take the under on the Cards winning 88 1/2 games. Maybe you will get rich. 😉

    #122085
    Avatarmspaid
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    People are getting carried away with the Reds. They could better than last year but the division? That’s a stretch. As bad as the Cardinals offense will be this year, I would still pick them as first or second in the division because it is a weak division. I’d say 86 to 88 wins. Cubs could wake up and win it.

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