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Euro:
There is an upside in that each game will be much more important. I think managers will manage accordingly and we’re starting out at the beginning of a pennant drive. More games will have a playoff feel about them. Maybe that means about the same amount of excitement compacted into a smaller space.
I tend to follow along with Euro’s thoughts. This is looking at glass that’s half full. After saying that, the genuine article of MLB will start in April 2021…. fingers crossed. But until then at least it will be something interesting to watch.
Totally agree, 14. A lot of things will shake out in this short season (both good and less than good), that will go into the calculation of what will be needed to prepare for hopefully a very successful normal season in 2021. I’m looking forward very much to watching games this season. But for different reasons than the norm. Mostly watching the development of various players.
Cardinals with a 37% chance to make playoffs, 21% to win division. Reds, Cubs and Brewers have better odds
2020 MLB Predictions | FiveThirtyEight https://t.co/RUERVAIQzs
— Bernie Miklasz (@miklasz) July 21, 2020
The problem with models like 538’s is that they like to jam everyone into the same mold and assume that average performance over time will continue indefinitely. I looked and saw that they said the Cards will have roughly average pitching for the division. I’m very confident that the Cards pitching will outpace the Cubs, Brewers and Pirates easily. If the Reds pitch to their capability, they might be close to the Cards, but that’s not a given in their band box.
New look from the gamblers…
Latest odds to win the World Series from @betonline_ag. LAD and NYY lead at 4/1. In NLC, CIN at 20/1, ChC at 25/1, #stlcards at 28/1, MIL at 30/1. #Cardinals odds slipped from 16/1 in the spring. Reds jumped from 33/1 and Cubs are same.
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) July 21, 2020
Latest from betonline.ag. I would bet the house on the over for CMart at 3.5 wins. Surely he will win four of 12 starts… Then again, there is a good reason I do not really bet…
St. Louis Cardinals Regular Season Props
Paul Goldschmidt – Total BA in the 2020 Regular Season
Over/Under .290Paul Goldschmidt – Total HR’s in the 2020 Regular Season
Over/Under 11.5Paul Goldschmidt – Total RBI’s in the 2020 Regular Season
Over/Under 34.5Paul DeJong – Total HR’s in the 2020 Regular Season
Over/Under 11.5Paul DeJong – Total RBI’s in the 2020 Regular Season
Over/Under 32.5Yadier Molina – Total HR’s in the 2020 Regular Season
Over/Under 4.5Yadier Molina – Total RBI’s in the 2020 Regular Season
Over/Under 25.5Jack Flaherty – Total Wins in the 2020 Regular Season
Over/Under 5Jack Flaherty – Total Strikeouts in the 2020 Regular Season
Over/Under 81.5Carlos Martinez – Total Wins in the 2020 Regular Season
Over/Under 3.5Miles Mikolas – Total Wins in the 2020 Regular Season
Over/Under 4Adam Wainwright – Total Wins in the 2020 Regular Season
Over/Under 4.5Dakota Hudson – Total Wins in the 2020 Regular Season
Over/Under 5On the projection side, ESPN made their updated predictions and though one guy mentioned the Cards as a team that benefitted most from the 10 to 16 team playoff format, he still didn’t pick them to make the playoffs. In fact, only one of the three picked the Cards to be in the top half of the teams in the NL.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29520355/mlb-16-team-playoffs-winners-losers-a-good-thing
Not even logging a .500 record and missing the playoffs would be quite a wake up call, especially with the relatively weak schedule.
The ESPN article was hardly an in-depth analysis, though…
According to updated odds from @betonline_ag, the #stlcards' line on winning the World Series jumped from 28/1 two weeks ago to 40/1 currently.
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) August 7, 2020
For future reference, it is always interesting to have these snapshots in time…
PECOTA Standings are blessedly now up to date incorporating current standings and ROS projections:https://t.co/aWqwftO4Zv
We've also got 1-day and 7-day deltas on playoff% available pic.twitter.com/jkuNur57hq
— Cronk is good. (@cdgoldstein) August 11, 2020
Dayn Perry of CBS scores the Cards season to date with an F-minus. I am pretty sure that is the very bottom. 😉
Postseason Odds, NL:#Dodgers 99.9% #Cubs 97.9%#Braves 94.6%#Cardinals 93.7%#Padres 92.5%#Nationals 67.3%#Mets 56.5%#Giants 41.8%#Brewers 40.5%
D-Backs 32.0%#Marlins 26.4%#Rockies 22.8%#Phillies 19.6%#Reds 13.5%#Pirates 0.9%— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) August 25, 2020
Odds of the #stlcards winning the World Series (40/1) and the NL (20/1) are unchanged from August 6 (just after the 1st COVID cases), per @betonline_ag. However, StL's odds for taking the NL Central raised from 13/5 on 7/22 to 13/2. The Cubs are now clear line favorites at 1/3.
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) September 1, 2020
For those of you curious about Magic Number scenarios for the @MLB postseason contenders… pic.twitter.com/aVSOozwllp
— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) September 15, 2020
Per betonline.ag, the odds for the Cards to win the division are longer now than on 9/1, but their lines to win the NL and WS are shorter.
Division 13/2 then to 8/1 now
NL 20/1 to 18/1
WS 40/1 to 33/1That ground they gained last week in the odds, they lost this week.
From last week to today, the #stlcards postseason odds are longer, per @betonline_ag.
WS win: from 33/1 to 40/1
NL pennant: from 18/1 to 20/1To make playoffs (current odds): 1/3 (yes),,12/5 (no)
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) September 22, 2020
Per betonline.ag, the Padres are 5/12 favorites and the Cards are 2/1 odds to win the Wild Card Series.
The Cards have the longest odds to win the NL at 18/1 and longest odds to win the WS at 40/1.
Get your bets in!
27 of 30 “experts” from ESPN pick the Padres to win the Wild Card Series.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29991008/expert-picks-2020-mlb-playoffs
10 of 12 MLB.com “experts” pick the Padres, with one of the two Cardinals selections coming from Will Leitch, who is very pro-Cardinals biased.
9 of 10 national staff from The Athletic pick San Diego.
Probability will have at least two dawgs winning their series, right?
I’ll take CLE and TOR…. and throw in the Cards (because I’m a very positive sort of guy).
Not that it matters, but I went on record this AM on the radio with LA, ChC, StL all winning, with Atl-Cin a tossup. I believe the latter will be the most competitive series of the four in the NL.
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