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Yahoo Sports, Scott Piaza “……despite most outlets choosing the St. Louis Cardinals to finish last in the NL Central,”
I know we won’t be world beaters this season, but I didn’t realize that there was this much doom and gloom out there………..I think we will be bad, but I wouldn’t put it past someone else in the Division to be worse.
Aren’t most of the other clubs in the division trying to win?
The players always want to win. The coaches and managers always want to win. The front office always wants to win. There are just varying degrees of effort each is willing to make to achieve that.
It is not as simple as “trying to win” or not.
Forced to choose, the DeWitts would rather not lose money on a team that does not appear to be capable of winning. What they are most trying to do is reload from within to become competitive again. So they are winning fewer games now and losing less money now while reinvesting to try to win more later. They are still trying, but in a different way than before (which included spending a lot of money that did not provide a good return – in October especially).
But we all knew that, didn’t we?
I understand that rebuilding periods are the new norm for small market clubs. However, consider this:
“AI Overview
The average career length for a Major League Baseball (MLB) player is roughly 5.6 years, though this figure is often skewed by players with long careers.(think Phat Albert at 22 years) Many, if not most, players have much shorter careers, with median figures frequently cited closer to 2.7 to 3 years. Nearly 20% of position players have a career of only a single year.
Key Aspects of MLB Career Lengths:
Median vs. Average: While the average is over 5 years, the median is much lower, meaning over half of all players have shorter careers.”Therefore, if you have a guy entering his third or fourth mlb season, it could very well be his last. What’s the point of going through a painful rebuild if you are not going to look at a lot of guys at the big league level? This is the year to take some chances, even though it could sacrifice some space in the standings.
Re:: “It’s not as simple….”
It’s still about the TV money disparity. Until that changes, we are a feeder club that at least has its own stadium for home games. Maybe Bloom can do a good Billy Beane game plan.
I don’t doubt Bill “wants to win”, but it will be on his terms before he “re-invests” in the player budget. He’s already showing he’s on the sidelines, it just took multiple seasons to whittle it down.
I think they take ’26 and ’27 to figure out all the internal options they have + really get the farm producing again and then in ’28 they will look at what they have and will be willing to add to their core roster via trades / free agents to put a team on the field that has an actual shot to get to the WS.
BrockLou, thank you for sharing that information. It is very interesting.
FWIW, I agree with you. More guys need chances, but having said that, I also don’t see a lot of guys in the upper minors who are screaming out as being MLB ready but are blocked. Crooks might be the only exception. Hopefully more will emerge during the season but rushing them won’t help anyone.
The Cardinals, along with many other teams, may have a plan in place today on how they want to build their team but that landscape could look different a year from now if/when a new CBA is in place. If a salary cap and floor system is implemented then the disparity in revenue is going to be much less of a factor. It will then be based on who is better at acquiring the right players and player development.
I am skeptical that a true cap and floor system will be implemented but at a minimum we should see tougher penalties on the current CBT system.
“Forced to choose, the DeWitts would rather not lose money on a team that does not appear to be capable of winning. What they are most trying to do is reload from within to become competitive again. So they are winning fewer games now and losing less money now while reinvesting to try to win more later.” (Emphases mine)
Per CNBC, the Cards in 2024 had revenues of $398MM, which ranked 12th in the sport. Then in 2025, the team CB Tax 40-man player payroll was just under $154MM. Seems like an awful lot of potential profit space, between revenues and player payroll, doesn’t it?
In 2025, the Birds made another $376MM in revenue. And we all know what’s happened to player payroll this offseason. So it’s very, very hard to imagine that the Cardinal owners have lost any money, at any point. There is a profound philosophical difference between owners trying to avoid *losing* money, and owners trying to maximize already robust profits. I say the above figures assert persuasively that the DeWitts are currently doing the latter — but I’m open to arguments to the contrary.
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“I don’t doubt Bill ‘wants to win’, but it will be on his terms before he ‘re-invests’ in the player budget.”
“I think they take ’26 and ’27 to figure out all the internal options they have + really get the farm producing again and then in ’28 they will look at what they have and will be willing to add to their core roster via trades / free agents to put a team on the field that has an actual shot to get to the WS.”
These statements touch upon the critical question: When if ever will player payroll become commensurate with revenues again under this ownership group? I don’t have a Post-Dispatch subscription so I may have missed it, but has Chaim Bloom or a DeWitt or anyone else at any point given so much as a strong hint, re a gameplan/timeline/payroll forecast going forward?
Refresher: From 1996 to 2022, the Cards’ revenues were typically around 10th in the sport, and player payroll fluctuated between 8th and 14th. For that 27-year period they had the 4th-most wins in MLB, trailing only the Dodgers, Braves, and Damn Yankees. The team won a lot of games and the owners made a lot of money. Good deal for everyone.
Updated win total over/under for #stlcards per https://t.co/NWDNKd4bJy has fallen from 73 1/2 in January to 69 1/2 currently. That is last in the NL Central.
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) March 23, 2026
Yea i think we could struggle to win 70 games. Im excited to see how they do but im more interested in seeing the team ĺmprove overall in areas as opposed to team wins. I know how things go around here. If the cardinals early on somehow win 3 games in a row, someone will be saying we are headed to the world series.
The win total doesn’t surprise me at all.
Last season the Cardinals were shutout 13 times. What is your over under with this light hitting offense? I say around 18.5. I’ll take the over and predict between 22-25 times they will fail to hang at least one run.
I’ll try to see some good here. At least there is the opportunity for JJ and a couple of others to have a pressure free learning year and build on that.
I don’t wager, bet, or gamble much even when I’m in Las Vegas but I may just have to jump on taking the over on that 69.5 win total.
ZTR – I’m not a gambler either. If I were though, that seems like a reasonable bet to take the over. 72.5 feels more like the right line.
I like our starting pitching better than last season. The bullpen probably is worse because last season felt a bit lucky there, but I feel like the pen is still a relative strength of this team due to everyone that could come up as a replacement. The defense will be just as good. Maybe even better if Burleson can be kept out of the outfield. The real question mark is the offense. Losing Arenado and changing to Gorman should be a slight positive. But losing Contreras and Donovan is difficult to replace. Fortunately, Wetherholt may pretty well replace Donovan. Therefore it really comes down to the outfield. Can they be any better than last season when they were mostly terrible at hitting (except Burleson). I don’t know. My best guess would be no. But we will see soon.
I generally go with jnevel’s analysis here. I’d add that last year a hobbled Noot got 509 ABs with an OPS of .686. That could well get upgraded. Herrera only had 388 ABs with an OPS of .837. More ABs from him could upgrade the offense.
Last year they got 78 wins. I’m betting 75 this year, but I think there are real error bars around the offense. If Weatherholt is indeed ROY material. If Herrera is healthier. If Gorman has figured things out so he is the in the OPS range of .722 to .867 (monthly June to August last year. If Walker can find his way back to the mid .750s like his first year. Well, that could be a quite improved offense. Unlikely, but possible.
Has anyone changed their mind on the Cards win total? I started at 75, and now I’ll up it to 77. Our bullpen is bad, and Walker won’t keep hitting like this. I am very disappointed in Svanson among others. I thought he’d be a mainstay.
I predicted 72 wins. That might be low but then again it might not be. It is hard to know much after 13 games. The back end of our bullpen is actually not bad. Jo Jo and O’Brien are predictably very good. They just need some help from the middle relief.
This is very relevant to the expectations discussion on the Friday game thread. The Cardinals are better than expected, except some fans are still not happy.
In the last two months, the #stlcards over/under win total per @BetOnline_ag has improved 10 games, from 69 1/2 to 79 1/2. That is tied for the second largest jump in MLB after Tampa Bay (+14).
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) May 28, 2026
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