2020 Cardinals Odds and Projections

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Viewing 25 posts - 126 through 150 (of 158 total)
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  • #132616
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    #132628
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    J.P. Hill did a two-part series on what should concern the Cards in 2020.

    Random variance not talent will have the biggest influence on this season.

    The Cardinals really shouldn’t worry too much about where they finish in the standings in an asterisk season. They should worry about the things that they can control. Like who and how they play.

    They should play to win, yes. But, they should play to win in 2021.

    Random variance is mostly injuries…. and to who.

    My conclusion is that 2020 is an excellent time to prepare for a hopefully normal 2021. Some money will be off the books and veterans not producing can be replaced by players costing much less opening the way for new contracts and free agent signings.

    If the Cards do well in 2020, great. If they don’t, I’m kind of thinking so what. @021 should be what we are aiming at.

    #132634
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    The words sound good but without specific examples, the points could be interpreted many different ways. Too generic to be meaningful, IMO.

    I think any “playing for next season” could appear be a by-product, depending on one’s interpretation of the moves made, but is clearly not the Cardinals mission in 2020.

    To a man, every Cardinal asked so far feels the 2020 championship will be at least as meaningful as any other. I bet players on other teams feel the same way. Three months of competing. Comments from Shildt deliver the message they are trying to win every game – and it seems sincere.

    In 1981, MLB played 1/3 of the season, had a stoppage for about 1/3, then played the final 1/3 of the season – with separate standings. They had the playoffs and the Dodgers won the World Series. Is there an asterisk by their title?

    That some fans feel the season is tainted is interesting I guess, but isn’t what is most relevant the views of those taking the risks to participate?

    #132647
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    An asterisk title would still be far better than no title at all. It makes sense to give it your best shot and see where the chips fall.

    No doubt Dodger fans would be pretty happy if they won the Series themselves this year after their long drought.

    #132649
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    … and without David Price…

    #132651
    AvatarMinuteman3
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    Well they are playing 37% of a regular season so that will have to be worked into averages and so forth. Much much higher than my mathematical skills.

    #132877
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    #132884
    Avatarbccran
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    If the Dodgers win it all this year, it will be considered an odd ball championship.

    #132895
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    “If (fill in the blank team) wins it all this year, it will be considered an odd ball championship.”

    Still, that club will have needed to do well in 60 games plus win the same tough 11 at the end, as every other post-season. My plan is to accept the 2020 season and enjoy it, no matter which team comes out on top.

    #132921
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    This is a fluff piece with little substance and thin commentary, but raises an interesting question. Will no fans hurt the Cardinals more than other teams this season?

    It also could be reworded as a ranking of the teams that benefit the most from fan support in the ballpark in normal times. The Cardinals are no. 2.

    #132925
    Avatarbccran
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    BW – with the shortened season, and players opting out, this season will lack legitimacy. But it will be a good long “training and positioning” period for a hopefully legitimate 2021 season. I’m anxious to see how our outfield shakes out.

    #132929
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Legitimacy is not a black and white matter. It is a personal opinion. I have mine and I respect yours even though we disagree.

    If teams shared your point of view that the season is nothing more than “training and positioning,” they would just play prospects, coddle the veterans, and not care if they win or lose. In fact, tanking for the 2021 draft could be the top priority. That is not reality.

    #132931
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    I agree, Brian. Perhaps teams will be a little quicker to pull the plug on a dud season if it looks that way, but it’s too early to say that with confidence. This season will be legitimate, no doubt about it.

    #132947
    AvatarMinuteman3
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    Consider it as you wish but I will never call it as anything but odd. I mean 60 games, no minor leagues, use of a DH, 1/3rd of your season against the American League while you only play 52% of your normal division games, and last but not least, that business of starting a runner on 2B during OT games. And I haven’t even mentioned the stuff required by Covid as well as the opt outs. Are we really ready for that kind of season. I guess they will start but I forsee troubles down the road with players picking up the bug and possibly stopping the season when too many cases are encountered

    #132948
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    When everything was in turmoil, I complained about the many lemons 2020 has brought, right along with everyone else. But now, it is either time to make lemonade or be a sourpuss all season long… 😉

    #132955
    Euro DandyEuro Dandy
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    Forecast how you think you will feel about this season (legitimacy or other factors), then compare that forecast with how you feel when it’s over. I wonder if it’ll be self-fulfilling prophecy, or if some end up changing their minds.

    I think one of the biggest negative factors will be the missing energy due to no fans attending. Most of us enjoy the non-game elements just the same (like stats, trades, drafts, contracts, rosters, etc.). The game experience will take a hit, though, because the game atmosphere is largely due to the fans. I think it’s likely going to feel a bit hollow.

    I also think this might impact the announcing. Announcers might feel compelled to force more energy into the game with more words. Al Michaels’ famous call comes to mind, “Do you believe in miracles? Yes!” After that, he went a full minute without saying another word, until he said “No words necessary.” The fan energy was telling the story, and Michaels has been frequently praised for allowing that to happen.

    #132957
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    On the changing minds point…

    “This season will not be legitimate – unless my team wins the World Series, of course,” said Joe Ficklefan. 😉

    #132967
    Euro DandyEuro Dandy
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    Joe Ficklefan rules.

    There are two sides to this. It is definitely odd, as MM3 said. There will be all kinds of asterisks (official or not) for things like individual awards, especially if an underdog wins one. They’ll be called fluke-ish.

    There is an upside in that each game will be much more important. I think managers will manage accordingly and we’re starting out at the beginning of a pennant drive. More games will have a playoff feel about them. Maybe that means about the same amount of excitement compacted into a smaller space.

    #132974
    Avatarmudville
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    Just an opinion. But what else can it be? I’m guessing that if there are playoff games and a World Series with fans allowed, MLB will have a hard time selling tickets for those games. And it won’t be because of the virus that’s been going around.

    #132975
    Avatarbccran
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    I’m not going to be a sourpuss, but I’m also not going to add legitimacy to a ridiculously short season with big name players opting out, etc. And just playing the prospects, and not caring about winning wouldn’t sit well with the sponsors, BW. They’re between a rock and a hard place. But how players perform and complete will go a long way towards training, positioning, and developing to prepare for a hopefully legitimate season in 2021.

    #132976
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    mud, a lot will change between now and October. Let’s hope there is more good than bad.

    #132978
    AvatarMinuteman3
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    I smile as I say we need to add (or subtract) the loss of 10 umpires opting out but NOT Joe West or Angel Hernandez. Gonna be a lot of rookie umps working games.

    #132979
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    On the umps, MLB rookies, yes, but Triple-A has a lot of very experienced umpires. Good to see new guys get a chance.

    #132997
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    MLB’s Mike Petriello puts the Cards in the fourth tier, called “Borderline Contenders,” due to concern about the offense.

    #132998
    Avatarbccran
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    Nothing but a declining veteran and unproven offensive players in the OF. That’s 37.5% of your offense in a normal season, and a third of your offense this season. The offense was inconsistent last season and Ozuna is gone. Petriello has it nailed.

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