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What is so great about winning the division? Do you get a special prize? Unless you are one of the top two in the league you get nothing but a trip to the wild card round. There is really no difference between finishing 3th, 4th, 5th or 6th. The Cardinals proved in 2022 that earning home field advantage doesn’t mean anything and on many occassions getting the top two spots aren’t an advantage either because the time off proves to be a momentum buster. In 2023 the Dbacks were the number 6 seed and went to the world series if memory serves.
And for those who think it is mandatory that we trade Helsley, Fedde, Mikolas, Matz, Maton, and Arenado even if we are in the playoff hunt what exactly are you expecting to get in return for those players?
My guess is that it would be similar to the return we received in 2023 when we traded Flaherty, Hicks, Cabrera, Montgomery, and Stratton.
Who did we receive?
Drew Rom
Adam Kloffenstein
Sem Robberse
Tekoha Roby
Thomas Saggese
Cesar Prieto
Sammy Hernandez
John KingA couple of those guys could still make an impact on the big league club but most are just AAAA depth players and utility types. Not exactly transformational nor do I think anyone we would acquire this year would be.
The facts are the facts, but does this mean they should not try to make further trades because one round didn’t work out as well as hoped?
gscottar said:
What is so great about winning the division? Do you get a special prize? Unless you are one of the top two in the league you get nothing but a trip to the wild card round. There is really no difference between finishing 3th, 4th, 5th or 6th…
A good point. To me, the real question is if we could see this team going deep into the playoffs, even with an addition or two. If not, adding players with a focus to win this year would seem to be throwing good money after bad.
The facts are the facts, but does this mean they should not try to make further trades because one round didn’t work out as well as hoped?
No but I would not throw away a chance at the playoffs because conventional wisdom says that the Cardinals must be sellers this year whether they are contending or not.
A good point. To me, the real question is if we could see this team going deep into the playoffs, even with an addition or two. If not, adding players with a focus to win this year would seem to be throwing good money after bad.
I don’t know how one would know that for sure or not. Most people probably thought the Dbacks had no chance to advance in 2023. We might have our preconceived notions about this team but as of today the standings say that we are only two games worse than the Dodgers and Mets and only three games worse than the Cubs and Phillies. How do we know that we would automatically lose to those teams in the playoffs?
The good news is that there are two more months to go before those decisions must be made.
Some would seemingly be happy with a return to the playoffs after two years away and continue the DeWitt strategy of getting there and then hoping to get lucky. The chances surely aren’t zero, but neither are they very good.
Current odds of the Cards winning the WS are 60/1, per ESPN. (https://www.espn.com/sports-betting/story/_/id/38801876/2025-world-series-odds-mlb-baseball). The Dodgers are best, at about 28%.
Personally, I am tired of that approach with them being stuck in the middle, taking long shot chances that lead nowhere. That has resulted in a total of one playoff series win in the last 10 years. But my opinion means nothing.
Ultimately, it is Mo and the DeWitts who are in charge and their track record is pretty well established. Here comes Erick Fedde and Tommy Pham to save the season!
Can ownership generate more revenue with a playoff push and attendance increasing? Or is a hard sell better for the bottom line?
Odds should favor ownership following the best case monetary return, going forward, based on recent frugality.
Personally, I am tired of that approach with them being stuck in the middle, taking long shot chances that lead nowhere. That has resulted in a total of one playoff series win in the last 10 years. But my opinion means nothing.
I agree with that. I don’t like that approach either. But are we sure that is what this push would be? Is this team different or is this current level of play a mirage? I would also say that adding a bunch of AAAA players in trade returns will do very little to break out of the “get in and hope for a miracle” strategy.
Myself, along with many others, predicted this team to finish 4th in the division with around 75-80 wins and would definitely be sellers. Perhaps we were wrong. Perhaps we were wrong by a large margin. As the old saying goes “that is why they play the games.” Who could have predicted that Leahy, Liberatore, Herrera, Scott, and Matz would all have career years at the same time? Baseball is a funny game sometimes.
Myself, along with many others, predicted this team to finish 4th in the division with around 75-80 wins and would definitely be sellers. Perhaps we were wrong. Perhaps we were wrong by a large margin. As the old saying goes “that is why they play the games.” Who could have predicted that Leahy, Liberatore, Herrera, Scott, and Matz would all have career years at the same time? Baseball is a funny game sometimes.
I will take credit for maintaining that this year’s team was better than last year’s team and pushing back against everyone that was so down on them. But I still had them likely finishing in 2nd or 3rd as a mid 80’s win number and I didn’t have any of those guys you mentioned in line for a big year. My thoughts were mostly that they’d be better because guys would play more games in the right role (e.g. Burleson against righties and not in the outfield, Contreras at 1B, Donovan mostly at 2B, Pallante, Fedde, and McGreevey for a full year in the rotation rather than Lynn and Gibson, and that we wouldn’t be getting the same 2 months of a promoted way before he was ready VSII).
I still believe that’s about where we end up and even if that’s a playoff team, it’s probably not a great one on paper. But you never know. And that’s the point. The Mets have spent a fortune trying to just make the World Series over the past 5 years and have nothing to show for it. Throwing money at a problem can help or hurt. I do know that this team is starting to make me more of a believer. I absolutely love Brendan Donovan and I’m getting there with Winn. And you guys already know I love Pages for all the intangibles he brings. I also believe in Jordan Walker and will continue to preach patience. Gray, Contreras, Helsley, Maton, and probably Arenado are great vets to have around. My jury is still out on most of the others. But maybe this all could play out well. If nothing else, watching games has at least been fun again.
And I’ll take credit for selling this edition short…In any event, although it’s still May, I never thought the ’25 edition of the Redbirds would be perched at 8 games over even going into the month of June. I learned a long time ago that my favorite team isn’t going to win every season, but if they’re still in the mix in late August or early September I’m reasonably happy. What’s no good at all is when my favorite team is relegated to the status of insignificant before Independence Day, and that’s been the case the last couple of seasons. We’ll see what happens, but at least I’m having fun watching.
Just from my far view on this team since i dont get to watch them much, i still feel they are short pieces to get a championship down the road. Whats the use of havibg any baseball iq built from years of being a fan if you are going to abandon it just because the team is suddenly in contention for post season. True trades dont always work out but that doesnt mean you stop doing them. Things will be clearer 2 months from now. But i still prefer to be better in the future, not hope for greatness now.
Yeah, Willie, in another 60 days things will take on shape at the trading deadline which is the proverbial quarter pole of the baseball season in the sense that it’s the time in which teams will be formulating a strategy to position themselves favorably for the stretch run. We all like to talk about a long season, but the net bottom line is that it’s no different than a 2 minute horse race…Haha!
“Win and develop at the same time”.
As the Cardinals motor through May, they're showing that it's possible to win and develop at the same time. They're just doing it with different players than they perhaps first envisioned.
How Iván Herrera and Alec Burleson have earned more playing time:https://t.co/87f3gctaM3
— Katie Woo (@katiejwoo) May 30, 2025
They looked really bad with a W/L record of 10-16 in April which has been offset by a scorching 18-7 record for the month of May, so they’ve been competitive for a month. It’s encouraging to see, but I’m not at all ready to pass judgement concerning whether or not they’ve been competitive for a year. But if I knew what was going to happen, I wouldn’t bother to watch. We’ll see what happens…
If I just counted right, the Cards lost 4 games in the first 23 in which they blew saves, a stretch where they went 9-14. I don’t think they’ve had such a game since, a stretch in which they have gone 23-10. One source indicates they have blown 7 leads total. I don’t know when those were. I’m inclined to think that part of the slow start was the pen and that this was a somewhat fixable issue so that the team we see now is more like what we will see than is the team we saw at the beginning. Assuming they stay healthy.
And in additon to what you mentioned, Galiano, the 0-4 record in extras obviously hurts. An even record in extras would place then at 10 games over .500 and only 1 game off the pace in NLC. In any event, extra innings are nothing other than a bad joke with the silly new rules, but what’s fair for one is obviously fair for the other.
Gags I think you are right. This team took off after we sent Fernandez, O’Brien, and Munoz down.
I still think Helsley is shaky but Maton, Leahy, and Matz have been terrific and JoJo is now much better than the first few weeks. The bullpen is a strength of this team.
Remember 2024. The team didn’t want to add any payroll unless it subtracted some payroll. My guess is this is exactly what they would do should a trade(s) happen.
Latest from betonline.ag:
To Make the Playoffs – St. Louis Cardinals
Yes +250
No -325
Note: Odds imply a 76.5% chance team won’t make the playoffs.A quantification of the improvement of the #stlcards compared to pre-season expectations, per https://t.co/nKeeQV9jck. The odds of them making the playoffs improved from 20% on 1/15 to 29% now.
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) July 15, 2025
Fangraphs has the Cardinals ZIPs projections up now. Dan notes that ZIPs still actually sees the Cardinals as around a .500 team.
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