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I have a feeling we will finish with a better record than a few of those teams ahead of us, specifically the ones in our division.
I really hope you’re right ATM, but I don’t see that much position talent on this team that could start for any of the top tier teams in either league. Contreras as a DH or Donovan as a Jack of all trades utility type.
I’m hoping someone finally thinks Arenado is the final piece of their puzzle. I’m not as down as some are, (sill a heck of a glove), but the decline in power the last 2 years makes me wish he was some other teams to deal with.
Sure we could squeak in, but what’s the point? I would have preferred a full blown rebuild.
It is hard to predict anything since we don’t know what the opening day roster will look like. We know they have to field a team, but we know next to nothing beyond that. Besides any trades that get announced, the next chance at any intel will be whatever may come out during WWU. I’m glad BW will be on site sniffing out undercurrents, noting body language and other sleuth stuff.
As of now I view us as a 4th place team. A little bit better than the Pirates but clearly worse than the Cubs and Brewers. I give the Reds the edge over us for 3rd because of Francona.
I agree GScottar. My opinion is today we would be 4th place and about 5 games better than the Pirates. I don’t think there’s much of a gap to the Red’s and Brewers though. Maybe 5 games. The Cubs are probably 10 games better than us assuming no Arenado.
All in all, it’s still anyone’s division. The gaps aren’t that big to overcome. But none are likely to get far in the playoffs. At least not right now. Any of these teams could still get better. I expect the Cubs to do so. The Reds likely will do something too but I’m not sure it will make them better. Not sure about the others.
1. Winn – SS
2. Donovan – 2B
3. Contreras – DH
4. Burleson – 1B
5. Nootbaar – LF
6. Herrera – C
7. Walker – RF
8. Gorman – 3B
9. Siani – CFRH starter. LH starter doesn’t change much except Contreras is 1B, Burleson is out, and right now I’d DH Baker and swap him and Herrera in the lineup.
Walker and Gorman can move up if they show they can hit once again.
I think they could go with that. Unless somebody catches fire in a big way, its not a lineup that will help sell tickets. It will get real fun once there are a couple guys on the IL. But I get the need to stand down.
What happens if catching Herrera just isn’t tenable because the running game is out of control?
That could be a real issue Bling. My guess is if Herrera runs an OPS over .780, then they won’t care. But if he doesn’t hit well and struggles to throw out runners again, then there’s a real problem. The knee-jerk reaction would be to bring Crooks up too early. The other alternatives are play Pages a lot more and further hurt the offense or return Contreras to catching. I don’t think the latter happens unless it’s a true emergency.
That lineup could be solid. It could also be bad. But I agree that the backup options for injured players is thin. Saggese can play 2nd and Donovan can cover corner outfield. I’m fine with that option. But after that it’s really shaky. Koperniak, Vilade, L Baker, Fermin . . . Lots of very unproven hitters with potentially questionable fielding.
I think what will happen is they will start off with Herrera, and a lineup like you have above. But letting too many singles and walks turn into a man in scoring position just won’t work for a team that doesn’t score a lot. So then I think they will insert Pages, but probably want to keep Herrera’s bat in the lineup as much as possible, and frankly, they will need to keep his bat in the lineup. They will want him to get turns at 1B and DH, which will shift other guys our of their slots. So it will be like Minnesota Fats shooting the cue ball to breakup that nice orderly grouping and send them ricocheting around the table. Marmol will be trying to restore order while simultaneously dealing with the relentless ‘help’ from analytics advising him on all the optimum matchups. The lineup and defensive alignment will be scrambled, and the Chinese fire drill will commence.
MLB dot com's new Power Rankings have the #stlcards at #26 of 30, same as ESPN last week. Below them are Angels, Rockies, Marlins and White Sox. https://t.co/rKGeqzdjQU
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 9, 2025
Not surprisingly, Jim Bowden grades the Cardinals offseason an “F” and projects them to finish last in the division.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6049125/2025/01/10/mlb-offseason-grades-signing-trades-predictions/
Yeah the team hasn’t done anything other than some minor league FAs and waiver guys. Then they have also went in circles on their plans and probably decreased any value they could get from Arenado while also making it really awkward for next year if he stays. I don’t see how the off-season could have been any worse really.
Measuring the off season moves of teams that have different objectives with the same yardstick is pointless. The Cardinal’s objective is to reduce payroll and open up opportunities for young players (presumably to showcase for the Bloom era). So far that is going decently. There is room for pitchers, and on the position player side, some bench sots are open, the outfield is not locked down, and first base has been opened up for the gaggle of poor fielders to get some play time.
The goal for this winter is being accomplished. Building a roster will commence after the 2025 season.
The Cardinal’s objective is to reduce payroll and open up opportunities for young players (presumably to showcase for the Bloom era). So far that is going decently.
I don’t know how it’s going decently. All they’ve done is not resign their free agents.
They haven’t traded any expensive players for payroll reductions. They haven’t traded any guys on expiring deals for prospects.
I would give them an F in alignment with their stated objectives of shedding payroll, opening playing time and competing again in 2026 and thereafter.
So far the offseason has been nothing but low hanging fruit payroll shedding. It took exactly zero effort. The heavy lifting (Arenado) thus far has been bungled by both player and team. And the messaging from the team has been inconsistent and scattered. I would give them a D so far but there is still some time until opening day.
PECOTA projections are now available. They have the Cards as a few games under .500. Cubs are projected to win the NL Central. These are just projections though as I honestly see the Brewers winning it still. Tucker for the Cubs helps a lot, but the Brewers find talent from random places.
That looks about right.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/02/poll-whos-winning-the-offseason-in-the-nl-central.html
Which NL Central Team Has Had The Best Offseason So Far?
Chicago Cubs 60.64% (5,153 votes)
Cincinnati Reds 22.6% (1,920 votes)
Milwaukee Brewers 8.8% (748 votes)
Pittsburgh Pirates 4.06% (345 votes)
St. Louis Cardinals 3.9% (331 votes)Total Votes: 8,497
ZIPs projections also came out today. They have the Cards at 79 wins with the Cubs also winning the division but with only 84 wins versus Milwaukee’s 81.
https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings
Well, according to ZIPS it looks like the NLC is going to be a photo finish with 3 horses at the wire on the last day of the regular season. I’m not sure what “ZIPS” is, but if they’re at all affiliated with the USPS, I’d say they’re unreliable and inefficient.
In The Athletic’s Power Rankings, the Cards are last in the NL Central and 24th overall.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6194240/2025/03/17/mlb-preseason-power-rankings-2025/
Opening day full season win totals from sportsbetting.ag:
NL Central (prior)
Chicago Cubs 86½ (85½)
Milwaukee Brewers 82½
Cincinnati Reds 79½ (78½)
Pittsburgh Pirates 75½
St. Louis Cardinals 75½
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