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Players with history of getting better are a good bet to get better. Players with a history of not getting better have stalled and are not likely to get better. Yes, they are probably going to get worse.
Libby and ZT are two guys I think will be better than they have been. Younger guys still working there way up. Matz probably not better than he has been.
Teams with the largest change in playoff odds since Opening Day (via @fangraphs)
BETTER
Phillies 56% -> 91% (+35)
Orioles 52% -> 87% (+35)
Cubs 41% -> 69% (+28)WORSE
Astros 86% -> 39% (-47)
Marlins 28% -> 1% (-27)
Cardinals 50% -> 26% (-24)— Foolish Baseball (@FoolishBB) May 6, 2024
Latest MLB win totals for #stlcards are out from @betonline_ag. Dropped from 84 1/2 at start of season to 77 1/2 wins currently. Fall of -7 wins third largest in MLB.
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) May 14, 2024
Granted, it's high at 35/1, but still surprising that #stlcards' Oli Marmol has fourth-lowest odds for NL Manager of the Year, per @BetOnline_ag. Earlier, he was among the leaders for Most Likely to be Fired. Pat Murphy leads at 5/6. Counsell is not listed. Shildt is 3rd at 10/1.
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) July 9, 2024
Latest odds from @BetOnline_ag have the #stlcards at 13/2 to win the division, 33/1 to win the NL and 55/1 to win the World Series.
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) August 1, 2024
At The Athletic, Jim Bowden ranked the 18 non-playoff teams as he sees them positioned for 2025. The Cardinals came in 13th, or sixth from the bottom in MLB, and last in the division. The only teams worse in his view are the White Sox, Angels, Rockies, A’s and Marlins.
Not a great neighborhood to reside in…
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5829389/2024/10/09/mlb-teams-missed-playoffs-ranking-2025/
Considering that the Cardinals have already signaled that they’ll take a step back, they probably should be near the back of the pack.
Then again, with the TV situation in flux for about a third of the league, it wouldn’t be surprising to see others “step back” as well. Good year to be a big dog team looking at the free agent market.
I don’t get excited about the baseball draft because other than a very very rare outlier – it takes 3-4 years to develop players.
Sure, you can argue that young prospects are trade capital – and you’d be right – but that no longer applies to the Cardinals at least for the near future.
Bloom has been around long enough to have his own circle of peeps. Randy might be running out of chances to draft the next Mark Appel. I assume he will be in charge this year, but he might be gone in time for the 2026 draft.
Unless you are in the top 5 of the draft it does not really matter for the next three seasons who they draft. Those guys will not be contributing at the major league level for at least that amount of time.
Post-Winter Meetings odds to win the NL Central in 2025:
Cubs 8/5
Brewers 11/5
Reds 5/1#stlcards 7/1
Pirates 15/2Only the slightest difference between the last two.
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 12, 2024
I don’t think this team is as bad off as many think, especially if they hold onto Helsley. Starting off the season the rotation looks like Gray, Mikolas, Pallante, Fedde, and Matz. Sure, Gray and Matz could get injured, Mikolas could continue just riding out his contract, Pallante and Fedde could get ‘figured out’ by the rest of the league. But Matthews, Hence, and McGreevy are waiting in the wings. And who knows? Maybe the Cardinals will find a way to sign Roki Sasaki who isn’t yet eligible for free agent money. There are possibilities.
Well i think this team is what it looks like, a below average team. But there is possibly a lot of teams like that so maybe just bt dumb luck we will record wise look better than we are. Now my 50 years of baseball knowledge doesnt tell me that but one can always hope i guess. Some like to look at the glass half full, some half empty while others like me look at it where they see it but thats what these predictions are for.
These predictions make me feel terrible! Knowing you’re gonna suck before spring training starts is a real downer! I think Cards4ever is about right though! Hoping we can stay away from triple digit losses at least!
Steve …. I know how you are feeling. This is what happens when the owner won’t spend money until the team looks like a winner, a POBO who at one time was pretty good but now is poor at best, a GM that isn’t heard from and a manager that, to be kind, doesn’t make matters better.
Without even talking about the players…. what kind of success could you possibly hope for?
ESPN posted its 2025 MLB Power Rankings. The #stlcards are ranked 26th after they were 18th to finish 2024. Only Angels, Rockies, Marlins and White Sox are now worse. https://t.co/WKOBtXuXhT
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 3, 2025
Keep your chins up guys, its darkest just before dawn. I’m not exactly confident about this odd sort of old boss new boss reset thing, but disaster is not the only possible outcome.
I have a feeling we will finish with a better record than a few of those teams ahead of us, specifically the ones in our division. I really like Skenes, but the Pirates have a horrible offense without anyone that looks like they will be an improvement over last year. The Reds seem over-hyped to me. De la Cruz is a very talented young player and so are Matt McClain and Hunter Greene. But outside of them, the Reds look quite bad at many positions and their bullpen will likely end as one of the worst in MLB.
I think the Cards will likely start the year off very badly. But as time goes on and young players grow and we call up pitchers like Mathews to take the spot of dead weights like Mikolas, the team will win more games. I don’t expect us to be great, but mid-70s wins while hopefully setting up for more success 2026 and beyond. In general, 2025 will be an interesting year. Give as much playing time to the young players and see which ones are keepers and which aren’t. I wouldn’t worry about losing and hope the ownership sees a path to sell tickets for an exciting young team. I will be interested to see how the Cards market themselves as they have always marketed the Cardinal Way, but I think they need to embrace the young energy of players like Winn and try to market them and tell the youngs guys to play with excitement.
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