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Good news and bad. Latest 2024 win totals from @betonline_ag have the #STLCards at 84 1/2 wins. Still, that is co-tops in the NL Central with the Cubs. Reds are 80 1/2, Brewers are 78 1/2 and Bucs are 72 1/2. Of course, the off-season is not over.
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 11, 2024
So 83 wins might win the NLC? That sounds like a dream come true for DeWitt and Mo.
projected 2024 wins (rounded) @ fangraphs right now:
97 ATL
96
95
94
93 LAD
92
91 HOU
90
89 NYY
88
87
86 SEA TB
85 TOR PHI
84 MIN BAL ARI
83 STL
82 TEX BOS
81 MIL MIA NYM SD CHC
80 CLE
79 DET SF CIN
78 LAA
77 PIT
76
75 KC
74
73
72
71 OAK
70
69
68 CWS
67
66 WSH
65
64 COL— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) January 30, 2024
83 is a stretch for me. I see us in the 75-78 range.
But we do have several young players that could be much better in ‘24 than last year. It is not unrealistic to think that at least two out of Walker, Gorman, Winn, Nootbaar, Burleson, and perhaps Baker or Herrera, will make great strides and provide a lot of production.
A little better work from the vets and decent pitching would get us into the 80s in wins. But I am maybe 60/40 on the side of that not happening.
One drag on our club for me is the manager. I just don’t see Ollie being a difference maker. He does not have that dynamic personality or style that takes charge and inspires people. At least from a distance he does not come across that way, to say nothing about his questionable lineup and pitching decisions.
That 83 puts us one win better than one of the WS teams and one win worse than the other one. I think Cardinals ownership considers that a bullseye. Mo’s work this winter couldn’t have gone any better.
The 83 wins also has them winning the NL Central. Wouldn’t that be something? 1st to 5th back to 1st.
PECOTA has the Cards at 85.5 wins, five games better than any other team in the division (but the Cubs may not be done yet). Usually, they are down on the Cards (and last year, they would have been right).
85.5 wins would also not be close to taking any of the other five divisions in MLB.
So what does this all mean to you?
PECOTA standings projections are live! https://t.co/aWqwftO4Zv
— Crank Mountain (@cdgoldstein) February 6, 2024
The schedule changed last season to playing division foes only 13 times each instead of 19 didn’t it?
If correct, that is 24 fewer games inside the division.
In ’22 the Cards had 93 wins so in ’24 the 85-86 wins seems to represent about the same level of okay as the NL Central was pretty weak in ’22 wasn’t it? I think giving up those 24 games for games outside the division means (for now) a slightly tougher schedule?
85.5 places the Cardinals with the 3rd best predicted record in the National League. That would be quite a turnaround, especially since it was other teams that signed all the high priced talent.
There are 7 American League teams projected with a better record, so that puts the Cardinals 11th out of 30. It puts the Cards within the next group after the 5 or 6 best teams in MLB.
The other thing I notice is that if you take away the Dodgers and Braves, the NL East and West don’t look too much superior to the Central. We may want to reconsider that weak division narrative. The central doesn’t have either of the two good teams. We could say that instead.
The DBs are projected to win about the same as last year. I didn’t follow what they were doing this winter, so I don’t know if they’re being underestimated or not.
I have to say that I think the Cardinals projected to have the 3rd best record in the NL is going overboard. I do think we will be better than last year, but everyone except the Dodgers and Braves isn’t going to be clustered within a few wins either way of a .500 record like Pecota has it. Its just their lame ass way of not committing to anything beyond the obvious.
Kind of surprised at all the optimism by these projection sites. I just don’t see it. A healthy Sonny Gray will help. And hopefully we see big improvements from a couple of young position players.
But we could just as easily see regression from the vets. If Lynn and Gibson pitch like last year, balls will be flying all over the place.
These projections are obviously counting last year as an abnormality, and they view the Cardinals more like they were in 2021 and ‘22 then they were in ‘23.
Hopefully I am wrong, but I only see marginal improvement, with bigger steps taken in ‘25 and ‘26 as guy like Winn and Walker become studs, the young pitchers step in, and we have a veteran skipper showing them the way. Oops, forget that last part. 😉
It’s difficult for me to afford any credibility whatsoever to a projection that forsees 85.5 W’s. How in the world does any team win half a game?
The Cards have more variation in their projections than most teams. The average lands at 85.5, which I think is fair. But the way the graphics look, there are lots of possibilities for both good and bad. Our graph of outcomes is wider than most teams. And it’s wide and flat at the top. So there’s almost as good of a chance that we win 93 games as there is we win 75. And I think that also seems fair. After all, we have lots of young players with not as much history to demonstrate where they’ll be. And, we have a lot of old starters who might be durable and hold up because they are mostly durable guys. But they could just as easily have 3 starters on the injured list at the same time.
I went back on TCN’s postings to see what the Cardfs were expected to do last season:
February 18, 2023 at 2:18 pm#212842REPLY
Bob Reed
2023 regular season win over/unders came in today from betonline.ag…
NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals 88½
Milwaukee Brewers 85½
Chicago Cubs 77½
Pittsburgh Pirates 67½
Cincinnati Reds 65½Cards 89.5
Brewers 85.5
cubs 77.5
Pitt 66.5
Redlegs 64.5Overall top O/U totals
Hous 96.5
Dodgers 95.5
Yanks 95.5
Braves 95.5
Mets 94.5
Padres 93.5
Toronto 92.5February 18, 2023 at 2:18 pm#212842REPLY2023 regular season win over/unders came in today from betonline.ag…
NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals 88½
Milwaukee Brewers 85½
Chicago Cubs 77½
Pittsburgh Pirates 67½
Cincinnati Reds 65½Yup, no big surprises. Thanks for relaying the info, Brian. Those numbers are quite close to those that my website (bookmaker.eu) came up with:
Cards 89.5
Brewers 85.5
cubs 77.5
Pitt 66.5
Redlegs 64.5Overall top O/U totals
Hous 96.5
Dodgers 95.5
Yanks 95.5
Braves 95.5
Mets 94.5
Padres 93.5
Toronto 92.5
Cards 89.5
Phils 88.5
Milw 85.5************************************************************************************
These projections were way off for some teams. But that was what they put out for ’23.
Buyer beware.December 27, 2022 at 9:31
ESPN+ coming out with initial Power Rankings via Steamer with some tweaks from the author (Doolittle). Cards are #4 in the NL with around 92-93 projected wins. Mets are currently first overall with about 103 (that’s with Correa), Padres are 2nd with 100(!!) mostly due to giving Tatis Jr a 5-6 WAR projection despite all the extenuating circumstances and Soto winning the MVP, and Braves round out third with 99. Here’s the top 10:
1. Mets (102.8)
2. Padres (99.9)
3. Yankees (99.4)
4. Braves (99.2)
5. Rays (94.4)
6. Houston (93.2)
7. Cards (92.3)
8. Jays (89.9)
9. Dodgers (89.7)
10. Guardians (88.7)Good insight jnevel. That makes sense that our average is decent, but we have a high standard deviation of results. If the vets and new pitchers perform well and a couple of youngsters take big strides we actually could be good. But we have a lot of risk with depending on older pitchers, and younger guys without much of a track record.
In my experience when you get past three ‘ifs’ when projecting a team’s performance as in; if this guy stays healthy, if this guy improves, if this guy rebounds from an off year…. the planets dont properly align and the team falls short.
I always look at it as how many guys are you counting on to do what they have so far not done. Last year we were counting on several pitchers to stay healthy and stick in the rotation, we were counting on DeJong and O’Neill to be healthy and productive. We were counting on Walker and Contreras to hit the ground running.
This year, guys mostly just have to do what they have been doing. The exceptions are Winn needs to hit some and Matz needs to stay healthy.This year, guys mostly just have to do what they have been doing. The exceptions are Winn needs to hit some and Matz needs to stay healthy.
Matz is the X-factor for ’24. He has the potential to exceed expectations and over-achieve. This would not surprise me at all. ***IF healthy.
Matz is the X-factor for ’24. He has the potential to exceed expectations and over-achieve. This would not surprise me at all. ***IF healthy.
Unfortunately we heard the same thing regarding him in 2022 and 2023.
I said that based on some sound starts at the end of ’23. If he can carry that into ’24 remains to be seen but he’s due for a comeback, healthy season.
Mo unloaded all the Il regulars he could. I assume he would have unloaded Matz too if he could have. But they really hate to eat contract. All we can do is hope he stays healthy. If not, we get to see Liby or Thompson again. We know how that goes.
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