Cardinals Odds and Projections

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  • #212849
    1toughdominican
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    I’ll also add something I’ve commented on before…The Cubs ran the table at 6-0 last season against the team that deafeated the Cardinals during the first round of the ’22 post-season. Moreover, they swept the Mets in a 3 game series played in NY in Sept. of ’22 and finished up the regular season by winning 16 of their final 22 games in which their pitching staff allowed more than 3 runs only 3 times. They always seem to play the Cardinals well, but I expect them to do the same with a lot of other teams in ’23.

    #212895
    Brian Walton
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    bling said:

    It suggests the possibility that the mechanism used has a bias towards bunching them up.

    I believe the intent is to adjust the odds to keep the money being bet as close to 50-50 over-under as possible.

    #213289
    Brian Walton
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    #213313
    Bob Reed
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    So, Corbin Carroll twice as likely as Walker. That makes sense to me, as CC is a guaranteed starter from Day One. Walker, far from it. But at any rate, here’s the odds from my website:

    ROOKIE OF THE YEAR – NATIONAL LEAGUE 2023 (ALL IN)
    MLB 2023 AWARDS (ALL IN)

    Andrew Painter +4000
    Bobby Miller +3559
    Brennen Davis +8000
    Brett Baty +3559
    Cade Cavalli +1816
    Eguy Rosario +10000
    Elly De La Cruz +1200
    Eury Perez +3300
    Ezequiel Tovar +1053
    Francisco Alvarez +1410
    Jared Shuster +5000
    Jordan Walker +285
    Kyle Harrison +3500
    Matt Mervis +3559
    Matthew Liberatore +3559
    Michael Busch +4500
    Miguel Vargas +804
    Noelvi Marte +2500
    Quinn Priester +8000
    Ryan Pepiot +4000
    Sal Frelick +3044
    Spencer Steer +2224
    Corbin Carroll +385
    Kodai Senga +854

    Eury Perez opened at 60-1 last week, so that was the best value in my opinion. (Of course, he ain’t 60-1 now.) Hey, what did the dachshund get when the kid dropped his ice cream cone? Frelick.

    But truly, the Brewers have some serious outfield prospects. Jackson Chourio in particular, and Frelick is no slouch.

    #213981
    Brian Walton
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    #218258
    Brian Walton
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    #218261
    blingboy
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    There is something called Pythagorean W-L record. It is defined by Baseball-Reference as the expected record given the number of runs scored and allowed. The Cardinals’ Pythagorean record is 13-14. Our actual record is 10-17, which puts us 3 games behind our Pythagorean record. Baseball-Reference calls this a luck factor of -3. We are tied with the Cubs and Rangers for the worst luck. The takeaway seems to be that we are both bad and unlucky. A perfect storm.

    #218262
    ZTR
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    Interesting. Yes being both bad and unlucky – to date – is a bad recipe.

    #218270
    blingboy
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    BW points out on another thread that opponents are a combined 129-108. So, we are bad, unlucky and playing an especially hard schedule.

    #218326
    ZTR
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    Cool and if the Cardinals were bumping along at around .500 then ok. But they aren’t – they are way underwater so what does that tell us?

    #218535
    Brian Walton
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    #218538
    blingboy
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    A team 10 back and playing like it having 4-1 odds is a compliment to the players on the roster as well as a nod to the organization’s reputation earned over a long time. I hope the current roster/management/ownership lives up to it.

    #218541
    Euro Dandy
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    So you have to lay down $400 to win $100, and you collect if the Cards don’t win the division. That seems like more than a fair bet for those so inclined.

    It also brings up a curiosity for me, especially if high stakes are involved. Suppose you wanted to bet $4MM to win one. Do the sportsbooks provide payout at the end of the season, or when the bet is mathematically determined. That could be a difference of several weeks if the Cards fall way behind, and the time value of $4MM would not be insignificant.

    A 4-week T-Bill on $5MM would earn about $15K. I think that gives me the answer!

    #218543
    BrockLou
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    Actually, a positive or negative Pythagorean has nothing to do with luck. If negative, it means either that when you win, you win by a relatively large margin, and you lose the close games.
    When you have blown saves and one run losses, you will most likely have a negative Pythagorean ratio.
    It could also mean that when you are losing a game, and therefore there is relatively little pressure on your relievers to pitch well in that game, they pitch well, keeping the game relatively close. That is in play for this club. No pressure, pitch well. Lots a pressure, pitch poorly.
    That isn’t luck, it is mental toughness

    #218676
    Card4Ever
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    On a pace for 56 wins… Yikes!!!

    #219837
    Brian Walton
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    #220670
    since1948
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    I saw an article, how well sourced I know not, that said, of all the teams who have started the season at the same abysmal pace as the Cardinals, none finished with a winning record for the total year. I think they were about 10-24 at the time.

    I predict, by All Star time, folks will be asking if the Cards will win it all.

    #226295
    Brian Walton
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    #226886
    Card4Ever
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    That could and should be 80,000/1 and I still wouldn’t put up $10.00.

    #236729
    14NyquisT
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    Early ’24 odds From Draft Kings: This is pre-Mozeliak working out a couple of miracles.

    Cubs
    +300G

    Brewers
    +4000

    Cardinals
    +4000

    Reds
    +4000

    Pirates
    +6000

    #239264
    Brian Walton
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    #239266
    blingboy
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    The optimistic take is the odds maker thinks we only have one team to catch.

    #239282
    14NyquisT
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    VEB WS winner

    CHC 25/1
    STL 35/1
    MIL 40/1
    CIN 40/1
    PIT 60/1

    About 2 weeks ago the Cards were 40/1.

    #240659
    Brian Walton
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    #240664
    Brian Walton
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    ZiPS is fairly kind to the 2024 Cardinals. Based on track record, is this a positive or the kiss of death?

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