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I’ll also add something I’ve commented on before…The Cubs ran the table at 6-0 last season against the team that deafeated the Cardinals during the first round of the ’22 post-season. Moreover, they swept the Mets in a 3 game series played in NY in Sept. of ’22 and finished up the regular season by winning 16 of their final 22 games in which their pitching staff allowed more than 3 runs only 3 times. They always seem to play the Cardinals well, but I expect them to do the same with a lot of other teams in ’23.
bling said:
It suggests the possibility that the mechanism used has a bias towards bunching them up.
I believe the intent is to adjust the odds to keep the money being bet as close to 50-50 over-under as possible.
According to odds just published by @betonline_ag, here are the top three favorites for NL Rookie of the Year:
Corbin Carroll 3/1
Kodai Senga 5/1
Jordan Walker 6/1— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) February 27, 2023
So, Corbin Carroll twice as likely as Walker. That makes sense to me, as CC is a guaranteed starter from Day One. Walker, far from it. But at any rate, here’s the odds from my website:
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR – NATIONAL LEAGUE 2023 (ALL IN)
MLB 2023 AWARDS (ALL IN)Andrew Painter +4000
Bobby Miller +3559
Brennen Davis +8000
Brett Baty +3559
Cade Cavalli +1816
Eguy Rosario +10000
Elly De La Cruz +1200
Eury Perez +3300
Ezequiel Tovar +1053
Francisco Alvarez +1410
Jared Shuster +5000
Jordan Walker +285
Kyle Harrison +3500
Matt Mervis +3559
Matthew Liberatore +3559
Michael Busch +4500
Miguel Vargas +804
Noelvi Marte +2500
Quinn Priester +8000
Ryan Pepiot +4000
Sal Frelick +3044
Spencer Steer +2224
Corbin Carroll +385
Kodai Senga +854Eury Perez opened at 60-1 last week, so that was the best value in my opinion. (Of course, he ain’t 60-1 now.) Hey, what did the dachshund get when the kid dropped his ice cream cone? Frelick.
But truly, the Brewers have some serious outfield prospects. Jackson Chourio in particular, and Frelick is no slouch.
New odds from @betonline_ag have the #STLCards at 5/11 to make the playoffs, or a 68.8% chance.
Brewers 11/10, 41.7%
Cubs 13/4, 18.2%
Reds and Bucs both 14/1, 3.2%— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) March 13, 2023
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