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I’ll also add something I’ve commented on before…The Cubs ran the table at 6-0 last season against the team that deafeated the Cardinals during the first round of the ’22 post-season. Moreover, they swept the Mets in a 3 game series played in NY in Sept. of ’22 and finished up the regular season by winning 16 of their final 22 games in which their pitching staff allowed more than 3 runs only 3 times. They always seem to play the Cardinals well, but I expect them to do the same with a lot of other teams in ’23.
bling said:
It suggests the possibility that the mechanism used has a bias towards bunching them up.
I believe the intent is to adjust the odds to keep the money being bet as close to 50-50 over-under as possible.
According to odds just published by @betonline_ag, here are the top three favorites for NL Rookie of the Year:
Corbin Carroll 3/1
Kodai Senga 5/1
Jordan Walker 6/1— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) February 27, 2023
So, Corbin Carroll twice as likely as Walker. That makes sense to me, as CC is a guaranteed starter from Day One. Walker, far from it. But at any rate, here’s the odds from my website:
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR – NATIONAL LEAGUE 2023 (ALL IN)
MLB 2023 AWARDS (ALL IN)Andrew Painter +4000
Bobby Miller +3559
Brennen Davis +8000
Brett Baty +3559
Cade Cavalli +1816
Eguy Rosario +10000
Elly De La Cruz +1200
Eury Perez +3300
Ezequiel Tovar +1053
Francisco Alvarez +1410
Jared Shuster +5000
Jordan Walker +285
Kyle Harrison +3500
Matt Mervis +3559
Matthew Liberatore +3559
Michael Busch +4500
Miguel Vargas +804
Noelvi Marte +2500
Quinn Priester +8000
Ryan Pepiot +4000
Sal Frelick +3044
Spencer Steer +2224
Corbin Carroll +385
Kodai Senga +854Eury Perez opened at 60-1 last week, so that was the best value in my opinion. (Of course, he ain’t 60-1 now.) Hey, what did the dachshund get when the kid dropped his ice cream cone? Frelick.
But truly, the Brewers have some serious outfield prospects. Jackson Chourio in particular, and Frelick is no slouch.
New odds from @betonline_ag have the #STLCards at 5/11 to make the playoffs, or a 68.8% chance.
Brewers 11/10, 41.7%
Cubs 13/4, 18.2%
Reds and Bucs both 14/1, 3.2%— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) March 13, 2023
Per Baseball-Reference, last night’s loss dropped the Cardinals’ odds of making the postseason below 50% for the first time in 2023.
— Dayn Perry (@daynperry) April 29, 2023
There is something called Pythagorean W-L record. It is defined by Baseball-Reference as the expected record given the number of runs scored and allowed. The Cardinals’ Pythagorean record is 13-14. Our actual record is 10-17, which puts us 3 games behind our Pythagorean record. Baseball-Reference calls this a luck factor of -3. We are tied with the Cubs and Rangers for the worst luck. The takeaway seems to be that we are both bad and unlucky. A perfect storm.
BW points out on another thread that opponents are a combined 129-108. So, we are bad, unlucky and playing an especially hard schedule.
Cool and if the Cardinals were bumping along at around .500 then ok. But they aren’t – they are way underwater so what does that tell us?
According to the latest odds from @betonline_ag, the #stlcards have dropped to third in the NL Central.
Odds to win division:
Brewers 10/13
Bucs 15/4
Cards 4/1
Cubs 5/1
Reds 60/1— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) May 1, 2023
A team 10 back and playing like it having 4-1 odds is a compliment to the players on the roster as well as a nod to the organization’s reputation earned over a long time. I hope the current roster/management/ownership lives up to it.
So you have to lay down $400 to win $100, and you collect if the Cards don’t win the division. That seems like more than a fair bet for those so inclined.
It also brings up a curiosity for me, especially if high stakes are involved. Suppose you wanted to bet $4MM to win one. Do the sportsbooks provide payout at the end of the season, or when the bet is mathematically determined. That could be a difference of several weeks if the Cards fall way behind, and the time value of $4MM would not be insignificant.
A 4-week T-Bill on $5MM would earn about $15K. I think that gives me the answer!
Actually, a positive or negative Pythagorean has nothing to do with luck. If negative, it means either that when you win, you win by a relatively large margin, and you lose the close games.
When you have blown saves and one run losses, you will most likely have a negative Pythagorean ratio.
It could also mean that when you are losing a game, and therefore there is relatively little pressure on your relievers to pitch well in that game, they pitch well, keeping the game relatively close. That is in play for this club. No pressure, pitch well. Lots a pressure, pitch poorly.
That isn’t luck, it is mental toughnessLatest lines from @betonline_ag have the #stlcards at 23/10 odds to make the playoffs and 10/29 or 74.4% chance they will miss. That is dramatically different from the opening line which implied a 68.8% chance they would make the playoffs.
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) May 9, 2023
I saw an article, how well sourced I know not, that said, of all the teams who have started the season at the same abysmal pace as the Cardinals, none finished with a winning record for the total year. I think they were about 10-24 at the time.
I predict, by All Star time, folks will be asking if the Cards will win it all.
According to @betonline_ag, in the last month, the odds for the #stlcards to win the 2023 World Series went from 28/1 to 80/1 now. They were 18/1 last November.
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) July 3, 2023
Early ’24 odds From Draft Kings: This is pre-Mozeliak working out a couple of miracles.
Cubs
+300GBrewers
+4000Cardinals
+4000Reds
+4000Pirates
+6000Current 2024 National League odds, per @betonline_ag:
Cubs 12/1
Reds 20/1
Brewers 20/1#stlcards 20/1 (unchanged from Nov.)
Bucs 28/1— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 7, 2023
New Power Rankings from https://t.co/OioalZeEDw have the #STLCards 18th overall and 4th in the division, only ahead of Pittsburgh. https://t.co/HU7gpNwhcf
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 2, 2024
ZiPS is fairly kind to the 2024 Cardinals. Based on track record, is this a positive or the kiss of death?
2024 ZiPS Projections – St. Louis Cardinals, are now live at @FanGraphs.https://t.co/fDHpyeNWBr#ZiPS24 #Cardinals
— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) January 2, 2024
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