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Per oddsmakers, the National League Central Division Champion #STLCards are favored to advance beyond the Wild Card Series. @sportsguy409 outlines some of the reasons why. (free) https://t.co/534TrI9NfC pic.twitter.com/EERoZDH6Jw
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) October 7, 2022
So Fangraphs has their ZiPS projections for next year up and the good news is…the Cards have the second best projection in MLB, tied with the Dodgers. They have them easily outpacing the Brewers.
I wish you wouldn’t have told me that, stlcard25. It’s no fun to watch when you know what’s gonna happen…Haha!
ESPN+ coming out with initial Power Rankings via Steamer with some tweaks from the author (Doolittle). Cards are #4 in the NL with around 92-93 projected wins. Mets are currently first overall with about 103 (that’s with Correa), Padres are 2nd with 100(!!) mostly due to giving Tatis Jr a 5-6 WAR projection despite all the extenuating circumstances and Soto winning the MVP, and Braves round out third with 99. Here’s the top 10:
1. Mets (102.8)
2. Padres (99.9)
3. Yankees (99.4)
4. Braves (99.2)
5. Rays (94.4)
6. Houston (93.2)
7. Cards (92.3)
8. Jays (89.9)
9. Dodgers (89.7)
10. Guardians (88.7)What do you think about the 92.3 gw? That would put us well ahead of any other team in the NLC… but ya still gotta play the games. Or we can just go to the playoffs using the analytics.
I think 92ish wins is a fair projection, given the relative weakness of the NL Central. Despite the more balanced schedule, they’ll still play more games against the Central than anyone else. The rotation is a weak point and probably limits them to that sort of record, barring an ace stepping up out of nowhere.
ZiPS still likes the 2023 Cardinals.
Ummm….with full projections ZiPS *really* likes the Cardinals. It usually likes the Cardinals more than other projection systems but it really really likes the Cardinals more, I imagine, than other projection systems this year.
— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) January 18, 2023
All the guys on the MLB Netword like the Cardinals as well. They said last night that St. Louis and Houston are the two teams most likely to repeat as division champions.
A sneak peek at the ZiPS x FanGraphs Depth Chart for the next team in ZiPS, the St. Louis Cardinals.#ZiPS23 #Cardinals pic.twitter.com/WbWrKjGrxc
— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) January 18, 2023
Using ZiPS to Rank the National League Contenders
ZiPS projections came out last week. Can we use them along with Depth Charts to project NL standings? Sure we can! And you’ll love the results. https://t.co/2RZPtbaHaO
— viva el birdos (@vivaelbirdos) January 28, 2023
The Dodgers have a minuscule .2 WAR edge over the Cardinals for second place in the NL. That was surprising to me. All offseason we’ve heard how the Dodgers are intentionally taking a step back for salary purposes. The Cardinals only added Willson Contreras, have a bunch of unused budget space, and admitted they failed to do everything they wanted to do.
How are these two teams who intentionally had quiet offseasons not only keeping pace with the NL’s biggest spenders but are sitting a hair’s width ahead of them?
I wonder if the answer is found in the way both teams have approached roster construction. The Cardinals and the Dodgers have their share of superstars but they’ve surrounded them with a very complete and deep supporting cast. We’re right back to that gut-feeling argument I make above. A deep team with a high floor can virtually guarantee a baseline of quality production regardless of the certainty of injuries and underperformance.
This is the kind of arrangement that the computers, and this system of simply adding up computer projections, is going to like. When you go 30-35 players deep – and all rosters will use that many players over the course of a season – having more 2.0 WAR players even if you have fewer 4.0 WAR players means something.
The Cardinals are projected to get under 1.6 WAR from just 2 places on their depth chart – their number 6 & 7 starters. The Dodgers also have just 2 players below that total – left field and their #6 starter.
This is the kind of arrangement that the computers, and this system of simply adding up computer projections, is going to like.
The computers like us. We’re doomed.
PECOTA standings have the #STLCards with 87.5 wins, just behind the Brewers with 87.6 wins. File this one away for later reference… https://t.co/D4bjbXdLwQ
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) February 14, 2023
I took a look at team rank by WAR on fangraphs which might be as current as it can be. The Cardinals rank 20th in pitching WAR. That’s down amongst the dregs and is going to be hard to brush off unless you’re a homer.
Look to the gambling websites for the best information, as they of course have to be very good or they lose money. They do not like to lose money.
Per the website that regularly takes my donations, the Cards are basically twice as likely to win the division as the Brewers. It’s ten bucks to win eight, for the Birds. And 10 to win 16 on Milwaukee. It’s more or less a reversal of last year’s pre-season odds, when I bet the Cards at nearly 2-1.
One very strange thing is, there’s no over/under Totals yet, on my site. Lots of prop bets for individual players, and misc. MLB wagering possibilities. But no regular, boring Totals betting. I can guess from experience, though, that the Birds will be 88.5 or so, and the Brewers two or three below that. And since the Cards are either 7-2-1 or 8-2 (depending on the odds source) against the line since LaRussa retired, it’s a pretty safe wager that they beat the number.
2023 regular season win over/unders came in today from betonline.ag…
NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals 88½
Milwaukee Brewers 85½
Chicago Cubs 77½
Pittsburgh Pirates 67½
Cincinnati Reds 65½You can instantly tell that these O/U odds hold no credibility whatsoever simply by the fact that there’s no such thing as a half win…
If all the teams were exactly as good in 2023 as in 2022, would the new harder schedule this year cost the Cardinals 4 1/2 wins? 88 1/2 vs 93? Just off hand, that seems reasonable.
I think the low 90s is a reasonable win number for the Cardinals. The big difference maker will be starting pitching. If say 2 of the group of Hudson, Matz, Liberatore, and Flaherty step up and have real good years, we could be looking at 96-99 wins. But then if the injury bug bites like it has to say Mikolas, Flahery (again), Wainwright, or any combination of two or three, we could be down in the 80s somewhere.
All in all I would take the over on the 88.5 win number.
With Tim McCarver passing, I have been reading quite a lot about those Cardinals teams. Going into the 1967 season, the Cardinals were predicted to be middle of the pack, as their starting pitching was a big question mark. There was no one to speak of behind Bob Gibson in the rotation. The bullpen had two good lefties, Joe Hoerner and Hal Woodeshick, but not much else. Turns out some young guys surprised a lot of people – Dick Hughes, Steve Carlton, Nelson Briles, and Ron Willis to name a few. Maybe we will see that this year.
2023 regular season win over/unders came in today from betonline.ag…
NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals 88½
Milwaukee Brewers 85½
Chicago Cubs 77½
Pittsburgh Pirates 67½
Cincinnati Reds 65½These numbers look accurate to me, although I would probably have the Cubs around 80 or 81. As Bob Reed said the other day, when you are looking at prognostications go with the guys who actually have money on the line (betting sites) instead of the self proclaimed analytic gurus (Fangraphs, Pecota, etc…)
2023 regular season win over/unders came in today from betonline.ag…
NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals 88½
Milwaukee Brewers 85½
Chicago Cubs 77½
Pittsburgh Pirates 67½
Cincinnati Reds 65½Yup, no big surprises. Thanks for relaying the info, Brian. Those numbers are quite close to those that my website (bookmaker.eu) came up with:
Cards 89.5
Brewers 85.5
cubs 77.5
Pitt 66.5
Redlegs 64.5Overall top O/U totals
Hous 96.5
Dodgers 95.5
Yanks 95.5
Braves 95.5
Mets 94.5
Padres 93.5
Toronto 92.5
Cards 89.5
Phils 88.5
Milw 85.5I don’t see many value bets there. I did place a shekel against the Padres making the playoffs, since I got nearly 4-1 on that. For more conventional wagering, I’d probably feel safest betting the over on the Mets, as Showalter is one of the best regular season managers in recent MLB history. (October, not so much.)
Like BikeMike, I’d definitely take the over on the Birds at 88.5 — but I don’t bet Totals more than once or twice a decade, it’s not a strength of mine, and 88.5 isn’t egregiously low by any means. I just wish there were a prop bet for picking the precise win total for a team. Say, 10-1 or so. Then I’d take the Cards at 92. Boring but probably about right.
Checking the 2022 final standings vs the prognostications above, every team in the division is projected to close the gap on the Cardinals. I don’t see that as likely. It suggests the possibility that the mechanism used has a bias towards bunching them up.
I’m probably going to create the impression that I’ve been frequenting the dispensaries, but I forsee the the Cubbies as not only being relevant as a contender in the NLC up until the end of July, but also finishing up the ’23 regular season at or near sea level. That may very well be wishful thinking on my part because I feel like the Cardinal season is always a better one when they play the Cubs when both teams are in contention, but I really do feel like they’re going to be a .500 sort of ballclub in ’23.
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