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I’ll say at least one of those Wild Card projections by mlb doesn’t make it and we slot into that WC slot. I just can’t choose which team. They all either had injury issues, clubhouse issue of flat out overachieved. Maybe even 2 of them don’t make it as the Phillies look to replicate the old Orioles team from days past and put out a lineup that can’t field very well, are station to station runners and hit 3 run jimmy jacks. They might be the biggest question mark heading into 2022. Bullpen sucks as well!
I know the rotation is a concern due to age, injuries ect… Honestly I’d be a little more worried about the pen. Gallegos has not closed a full season and has thrown a ton the last 2+ years. We also have some turnover and some hope that old faces return to form and some new guys produce. Doesn’t always work that way.
According to the latest from @betonline_ag, the over-under win total for the #stlcards has dropped from 85 1/2 at opening to 84 1/2 now. Brewers remain at 89 1/2 with the rest of the NL Central way under .500. Cubs 74 1/2, Reds 73 1/2, Bucs 66 1/2.
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) April 6, 2022
Bobby, Stlcard25 & Scotty are right in the ballpark with their high 80’s victory projections. Even minus Flaherty for an extended period of time, this ’22 squad is a 90+ win team. Both the starting and bullpen crews will prove to be a tick above average, the defense superb and the hitting……the hitting is going to be very very potent.
Bob Reed,
I’m talking about the period since LaRussa left. A shift occurred when LaRussa and Luhnow left and Mo became exposed. It took a few years to start seeing the effects.
Blake Newberry with a very good perspective.
Are the Cardinals Being Underrated this Year? https://t.co/4aH96qHDdU
— viva el birdos (@vivaelbirdos) April 10, 2022
Funny, not sure who did the projections but on the MLB Network last night it had the following projections for the AL East:
New York 88-74
Toronto 88-74
Boston 88-74
Tampa Bay 88-74We won’t know if we are being underated or overated for a while. We may be rated just right. I’ve thought all along that our pitching was going to be an issue. Hanging hopes on guys coming back from injuries is always a gamble. Matz may end up being ok but he’s just as big a gamble. I don’t see any young arms ready to save us if things go sideways. Waino as long as he’s healthy, I’m sure of, every thing else starting wise is a question mark. You can talk all you want about an improved offense but if our starting pitching fails for whatever reason, it’s not going to matter. Right now history is on our side to have a better than 500 record but we will see.
If Flaherty, if Mikolas, if Matz, if, if, if….
If wishes were horses beggars would ride as the old saying goes.
I’ve found that if you get past three IFs you are probably in a spot of trouble – took a 17 game win streak to bail out the boys last season.
This team should be at least a little better than last year’s team due to player maturation.
This team will likely make the playoffs as that just became easier than ever before – and once you are in the tournament anything can happen as long as you have 2 frontline starters and a deep bullpen.
Honest question. How much more do you invest in a team that currently has a roughly 1/3 chance of even getting into October, let alone win it all? (when you know it will potentially cost future wins by dealing away prospects)
NL playoff chances, per Fangraphs:
Dodgers 99.7%
Mets 98.9%
Braves 97.7%
Padres 88.5%
Brewers 86.7%
Phillies 52.5%
Cardinals 35.5%
Giants 33.7%
Marlins 6.6%
Cubs 0.2%
Diamondbacks 0.1%
4 teams 0.0%https://t.co/aW7oAjgFzc— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) July 10, 2022
Currently, the #STLCards are on pace to win 94 games (actually 93.7). Latest odds from @betonline_ag have them at 92 wins. The Cards opened at 85 1/2 wins a long time ago.
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) August 29, 2022
It would take a fairly hideous collapse by the Cardinals to lose the division at this point. They have played themselves into a pretty good spot.
Would be nice to get into the #2 spot but that will take playing at a torrid pace for the balance of the regular season.
I think our pace is about 95.
Fangraphs
As long as one switches to “season to date“ as the projection method (near the top). The problem with the default method is two-fold. 1) calculating strength of schedule from their initial projections 2) not updating team projections for injuries, trades, etc.ZTR I agree. But as the 3rd seed we get the worst of Phillies/Padres/Brewers, at home. And Hader seems cooked. 23 era as a Padre with a 4.0 whip. Plus Padres have a very tough schedule (.573). They could be odd man out.
Hader: 12 hits , and 7 walks in 4.2 innings. Watch it and cringe.
Times have sure changed in San Diego in a month. The Tatis news had to piss off about everyone in the organization and city, add in Haders performance, remaining SOS and I could definitely see the Brewers over taking them.
I see that you can still get 22 tô 1 odds on the Cards tô win the WS. I think that is a good value bet. If Flaherty comes back as the old Flaherty and Martz gets an uptick and is better out of the pen than starting then the pitching starts tô stack up near as good as anyone’s. The hitting is already there. Those two conditions are probably less than 50% but still at 22 tô 1 Worth the Gamble.
I see that you can still get 22 tô 1 odds on the Cards tô win the WS. I think that is a good value bet.
CC, how much shall we bet?
Seriously, I’ve thought about laying down a chunk on this type of bet over the years even though I’m not a bettor. You might be right that this is a good value. Seems to make more sense than people laying down $ every paycheck on the lottery.
Seems an unmistakable pattern…
Cardinals PECOTA wins:
2013: 84
2014: 88
2015: 89
2016: 82
2017: 76
2018: 84
2019: 87
2021: 81
2022: 77Cardinals actual wins:
2013: 97 (+13)
2014: 90 (+2)
2015: 100 (+11)
2016: 86 (+4)
2017: 83 (+7)
2018: 88 (+4)
2019: 91 (+4)
2021: 90 (+9)
2022: 93 (+16)— Quinn (@QuinnSTLCards) October 5, 2022
I guess there is something to be said for consistency. 😉
Seriously, though, why wouldn’t they try to learn from their mistakes and adjust their formulas over time to try to become more accurate? This track record is terrible.
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