Cardinals Odds and Projections

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  • #173328
    Euro Dandy
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    Carioca,

    Yep, things looking much better for the Cards today compared to a short time ago. That data you pulled is old, though. I’ve been tracking this on betting sites and others. BR has current WC odds at the following:

    LA: 67.9% (because they still have chance at division)
    StL: 98.6%
    Cin: 0.9%
    Phi: 0.3%
    NYM & SD: both < 0.1%

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2021-playoff-odds.shtml

    #173868
    Brian Walton
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    The Cardinals take a bow…

    #174309
    Brian Walton
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    #180107
    Brian Walton
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    Last year, PECOTA had the Cards 81-81. They went on to win 90. this year, they have them at 77-85, in third place. That doesn’t seem credible as the Cardinals have finished below .500 just once in the the 2000’s – the last 22 years. The last three full seasons, they won 88, 91 and 90.

    #180108
    blingboy
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    77-85 is an eyebrow raiser. I’m not a BP subscriber but would like to know what sort of holes they see as being that serious. Maybe reliance on injury returns and level skippers for a rotation? Shortstop, catcher, leadoff, DH? Manager?

    #180120
    Nathan Leopold Jr.
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    Reverse the 77-85 would make sense.

    #180138
    CardsFanInChiTown
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    Just for comparison’s sake…..

    FanDuel is at +1800 for the WS
    +950 NLP
    +210 to win the NLC, with MIL at -125

    DraftKings is at +2500 for the WS
    +1200 NLP
    +205 to win the NLC, with MIL at -125

    Pointsbet is at +2200
    No NL odds listed
    +225, Brewers at -105
    “Nola” (not kidding, they spelled his 1st name that way) Arenado at +3000 for MVP, TON at +4000, Goldy at +5000 and DeJong at +10,000….. that might be worth a $1 bet and root for a turn around even more!

    #180141
    gscottar
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    77-85 makes zero sense. This should easily be an 87 win team and perhaps better if we don’t get hit too hard with injuries.

    #181668
    Brian Walton
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    USA TODAY has the Cards finishing in second place with 89 wins good enough to tie for the first and second wild card.

    #181674
    1982 willie
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    I don’t know. So much depends on our pitching and health. Right now I feel we are worse off to a degree than last year at least starting out. We got lots of ifs. Is Hudson going to stay healthy coming off injury. Mikolas, is he going to stay healthy. Flaherty is a question mark. Matz I’m not sold on. Lots of ifs but who knows. I’ll take 500 and go from there til we get going and see more

    #181692
    gscottar
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    So the AL East could have four playoff teams? There is something about that that seems off. If we are going to have divisions then there should be limits to how many teams per division can make the postseason. Otherwise just have a NL and a AL with no divisions and take the top six from each league.

    #181737
    Card4Ever
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    Cards 83/84 wins. Brewers win the division, Cubs better than expected. (And yes I have bile in my mouth typing that.) Thankfully the Reds and Pirates are tanking. Maybe a wild card. I hope.

    I’m sorry, Matz is a #3 starter if he repeats last year, much worse in previous years, (plus Mo overpaid for a free agent, AGAIN). The 3 RP / Swing starters are nobodies and Dickerson is meh… I hope Albert does well as the RH DH. I have been a Cardinal fan since my 1st game 65/66. I am over 60 and really want them to win. I just don’t think they have done anything to REALLY improve themselves.

    I hate the whole make the Wild Card and pray for lightning in a bottle business model. It just seems they are doing the 3 Amigos farewell tour to make as much $ as possible. I have seen posts here and on other sites about fans making their voices heard by not buying tickets. This will not work, unless they are willing to wait years. Too many tickets bought by corporations to be given away as freebies. Empty seats don’t matter if the seat is already paid for.

    Damn, I don’t remember going into a season as pessimistic. I really hope I am wrong.

    #181745
    sjeff70
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    Card4Ever,

    Yup, with the philosophy of building your team around home grown talent you have to make better draft picks and you have to be able to evaluate and build the talent you have better. They know what they want they just don’t know how to get there.

    Just look at the rankings of the different farm systems out there over the last 10 years.

    Look at how Carlson first came up and the hitting philosophy he had at the plate. They should be getting these guys ready to hit at the MLB level. You cannot take minor league at bats at the MLB level.

    #181754
    14NyquisT
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    IMO, the Cards have two X-factors opening this season, DeJong and Hudson. If both perform at higher than expected level the team will surely be improved. Barring any more major injuries (Flaherty) I can see STL winning the division. The rotation is loaded with question marks and a bit vulnerable to injury. Let’s see how the early going plays out before letting the doom rule.
    There is always the chance that there will be some significant help from the farm.

    #181765
    gscottar
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    I hate the whole make the Wild Card and pray for lightning in a bottle business model.

    Which is why the players’ union didn’t want to add too many wild card teams. If a front office knows they can get in the playoffs with 82 wins why spend more?

    #181810
    Card4Ever
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    Which is why the players’ union didn’t want to add too many wild card teams. If a front office knows they can get in the playoffs with 82 wins why spend more?

    I don’t blame them, though I hate it more for giving Mozeliak cover of saying “We made the playoffs” and so many think that is a great point.

    #181812
    Ratsbuddy
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    Flaherty is the proverbial wild card in the 2022 equation. If he can regain some health and make 25+ starts I think the Redbirds can win 90+ games and contend for the division. If not, well, the Brewers take the NL Central with around 95 wins.

    r/Esteemed Rat

    #181815
    Bob Reed
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    “Just look at the rankings of the different farm systems out there over the last 10 years.”

    Not precisely the past 10 years, but MLB Pipeline rated farm systems for the decade of 2010-2019, and placed the Cards 7th in all of baseball. And that was almost certainly too low, as Pipeline ranked the Cubs 4th, and the Cards’ farm system generated almost 25% more MLB WAR than the Cubs’ during that decade.

    You can read about this in more detail, in this thread from November of 2019. It’s just a 2-page thread, and most of the minor league stuff is on the second page. https://thecardinalnation.com/forums/topic/mlb-team-of-the-decade/page/2/

    Basically, I would argue that the Cards stopped being a great franchise after 2015 because they stopped trusting their own player development system, and not because their system didn’t produce enough talent to remain great. Mo was very, very smart from 2009-2015. Then from 2016-Goldschmidt he was one of the absolute worst General Managers in the sport at evaluating talent — all types of talent, including coaches, players, and managers. It was a truly bizarre turn of events.

    But I do think Mo has largely returned to his smarter ways — misguided Marmol hiring excepted. Anyway, as far as predictions & projections are concerned, I see the Birds going 88-74. Since they’ve won at least 86 games in 12 of Mo’s 13 seasons, that seems like a reasonably modest prediction to me.

    #181846
    Brian Walton
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    73 MLB.com writers pick the Cardinals to miss the playoffs.

    https://www.mlb.com/news/2022-division-winners-and-world-series-predictions

    #181893
    Card4Ever
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    Hate to say it, but I can’t disagree.

    #181896
    mudville
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    Five Gold gloves, a future HOF catcher behind the plate. Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt at the infield corners, possibly one of the best overall outfields in the game. Middle relief looks capable, and Gallegos, Helsley, and Hicks ought to be able to handle the late innings. The only weakness I see on this team is starting pitching. And that’s because we don’t have a true number one guy. But heck, Kershaw was the Dodgers number one guy for years, and the Cardinals owned him the whole time.

    I think this team will win the Division and go deep into the playoffs. IMO, the Cardinals have as much chance as any other team to go all the way to the World Series. I’m guessing 92 wins for this team.

    #181897
    so_cal_cards_fan
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    I’ll wait for the probabilistic approaches. The same panel (raw votes are not revealed) might give the Cardinals a 20-30% chance of making it in. The same panel might give itself only a likelihood of 10% of having picked all 12 playoff teams correctly.

    #181902
    Bob Reed
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    “73 MLB.com writers pick the Cardinals to miss the playoffs.”

    ———————————————-

    I checked the article and those 73 panelists picked the Padres, Mets, and Giants for the N.L.’s trio of wildcard slots. Let’s do a quick historical overview.

    The Padres haven’t won 80 games in a season since 2010. The Cards have won 86+ games in 12 of Mozeliak’s 13 full seasons in charge. And Fernando Tatis, Jr. is hurt.

    The Mets have had a better record than the Cardinals once in the past 13 years — that was in 2016 when NYM won exactly one more game than St. Louis. And Jacob DeGrom is hurt.

    I won’t quibble with the Giants pick. Because seemingly anything could happen there. I strongly suspect that nobody at MLB.com or anywhere else — including Frisco’s own organization — has any idea what to expect in 2022, since they just had the flukiest season in major league history, finishing 48 games over .500 with an old mediocre roster after four consecutive losing seasons.

    —————————————————

    So I don’t know how good the Birds will be, but I very much doubt they’ll be worse than all three of the Friars, Frisco, and Mets. My feet to the fire, I’ll stick with 88 wins. (The only prediction/projection that concerns me at all is the Vegas over/under at a depressingly modest 84.5, as the Redbirds are typically 2-4 wins higher than that in March. Vegas knows ballclubs better than PECOTA or ZiPS or anyone at MLB.com, in all likelihood. They have to.)

    #181909
    stlcard25
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    I’m in agreement with Bob. I don’t see the individual votes but I’d be surprised if the Cards aren’t right in the thick of it to the end. They pretty much always are. They have a very similar team to last year’s squad and although you can’t predict another long winning streak, they were likely better than their record at the start of the streak. I’d pick them to win 86-88 games and probably get a Wild Card.

    #181916
    gscottar
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    I have the Cards at 89-73, second in the division, and in the wild card round. I could see us winning a wild card series but probably not much after that. If Mo would ever get aggressive at the trade deadline I would feel better about advancing deep in the playoffs but he rarely ever does.

    My predictions for the NLC:

    1. Brewers 92-70
    2. Cards 89-73
    3. Cubs 81-81
    4. Reds 75-87
    5. Pirates 68-94

Viewing 25 posts - 351 through 375 (of 387 total)
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