Cardinals Odds and Projections

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  • #156700
    forsch31
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    Free

    Considering this thread was started to discuss odds makers and Cardinal team projections from different sites, I don’t see where the OF discussion belongs here.

    There are threads for 2021 BOLD PREDICTIONS, 2021 projections, 4/1 game, Bader to miss 4 weeks, and Our Young Outfielders that seems more appropriate, IMO.

    #156703
    bccran
    Participant

    I project that the Cards will again have offensive issues at SS and in CF.
    Is that better, Forsch?

    #156705
    forsch31
    Participant

    Free

    No. It goes in the predictions thread, IMO. Why do we need to re-hash the same thing in yet another thread? I’m pretty sure you started a thread on the whole offense last year that is still out there. It wasn’t specific to just 1 year.

    #156712
    bccran
    Participant

    Okay, Forsch. Thank you for your specific advice and instructions.

    #156715
    forsch31
    Participant

    Free

    Np

    #156722
    bccran
    Participant

    You make a good moderator, Forsch.

    #156839
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    In case anyone cares about the purpose of this thread…

    23 of 37 ESPN staffers pick the Cardinals to win the NL Central. From among them, Jesse Rogers is among two who thinks the Cards will reach the World Series and one of the 37 (not clear who) predicts they will win it all.

    Also, Flaherty got one Cy Young vote and Carlson five for Rookie of the Year.

    https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/31157915/2021-mlb-season-predictions-division-champs-world-series-picks-mvp-cy-young-favorites

    #156845
    forsch31
    Participant

    Free

    I would consider those to be fair projections. Considering only 1 thought the Cardinals would win it all and only 2 to reach the World Series, that would be in line with my thinking. The Cardinals have a team that could win it all but everything has to come together for them to do it.

    #157860
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    MLB.com’s Power Rankings drop the Cardinals from 10th to 13th (of 30).

    https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-power-rankings-after-week-1-2021

    #160571
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Not close to the Dodgers, but second-best in the NL.

    #170578
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    #170588
    PugsleyAddams
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Wow, 1.9 seems much too low and the Reds’ 76.8 way too high. I’d put us at 12% and Cincy about 22%. Wonder why they hate our chances? Don’t answer that, Nate!

    #170608
    mudville
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    Paid - Annual

    The surging Yankees at a mere 3.8%? TLR and the White Sox at 6.3%?

    #170613
    mspaid
    Participant

    Free

    I’m going to venture an answer despite Pugsley’s admonition that I should remain silent. I think 76.8 and 1.9 are ridiculous numbers. Pugsley’s numbers are more realistic. I don’t know why Baseball reference does not like our chances but I am dubious every year because they only do enough in the off-season to remain mediocre. Junior calls it competitive. They never go far enough to make the Cardinals a tier one team. But they never promise to go all in and spend big to make the team better so they are truthful.

    #170756
    PugsleyAddams
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    As usual, Nate’s (MSPaid to you newbies) post was money in the bank. And just for the record, since it has not been mentioned for a few years, Nate has a documented 182 Intelligence Quotient (IQ). Back in ’06, at The Birdhouse, for some strange reason, all of we posters revealed our IQ’s in a particular thread. My IQ does not warrant a revisit like Nate’s.

    #170762
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    OK, if you prefer Fangraphs instead, they have the Cardinals’ odds double that of B-R – a whopping 4.2%. Reds are 63.5%. Feel any better?

    https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

    #170766
    blingboy
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    So they think we stink too.

    #170776
    bccran
    Participant

    They took a look at our schedule in September, BB.

    #171406
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Latest Cardinals odds from BetOnline.ag:

    Win World Series: 50/1
    Win NL Pennant: 28/1
    Win NL Central: (off the board because of Milwaukee’s big lead)

    #171842
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Current odds for second Wild Card, according to Baseball-Reference:

    55.0 Reds
    22.7 Padres
    11.8 Phillies
    2.6 Mets
    2.4 Cardinals

    #171849
    bccran
    Participant

    Looking back on the positive predictions from April, what happened? Was it more injuries or underperformance? Which would you pick?

    #171855
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Injuries and lack of depth. We were in first place until our rotation turned into a MASH unit.

    #171864
    ZTR
    Participant

    Free

    Injuries, lack of quality depth, overpaid, under performing veteran taking a spot.

    #173317
    CariocaCardinal
    Participant

    Paid - Monthly

    Current odds for second Wild Card, according to Baseball-Reference:

    55.0 Reds
    22.7 Padres
    11.8 Phillies
    2.6 Mets
    2.4 Cardinals

    Those odds dont seem to look too acurate anymore lol.

    #173321
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    VEB had a good piece about the Edman 6-24-21 thoughts regarding his critique of the team’s performance.

    FILED UNDER:
    CARDINALS ANALYSIS
    “Four Critical Failures” Revisited: Have the Adjustments Worked?

    PRE-EDMAN —- POST-EDMAN
    Win% .480 —– .595
    wRC+ 84—— 106
    wOBA .291—– .326
    BA .225—– .257
    OBP .298—– .325
    SLUG% .373—- .432
    BB% 8.2—– 7.9
    K% 22.7—- 21.9
    fWAR 5.4—– 14.9

    Apparently things have improved.

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