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Considering this thread was started to discuss odds makers and Cardinal team projections from different sites, I don’t see where the OF discussion belongs here.
There are threads for 2021 BOLD PREDICTIONS, 2021 projections, 4/1 game, Bader to miss 4 weeks, and Our Young Outfielders that seems more appropriate, IMO.
No. It goes in the predictions thread, IMO. Why do we need to re-hash the same thing in yet another thread? I’m pretty sure you started a thread on the whole offense last year that is still out there. It wasn’t specific to just 1 year.
In case anyone cares about the purpose of this thread…
23 of 37 ESPN staffers pick the Cardinals to win the NL Central. From among them, Jesse Rogers is among two who thinks the Cards will reach the World Series and one of the 37 (not clear who) predicts they will win it all.
Also, Flaherty got one Cy Young vote and Carlson five for Rookie of the Year.
I would consider those to be fair projections. Considering only 1 thought the Cardinals would win it all and only 2 to reach the World Series, that would be in line with my thinking. The Cardinals have a team that could win it all but everything has to come together for them to do it.
MLB.com’s Power Rankings drop the Cardinals from 10th to 13th (of 30).
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-power-rankings-after-week-1-2021
Not close to the Dodgers, but second-best in the NL.
World Series chances after 10,000 SportsLine simulations 🏆
LAD 36.0%
HOU 8.4%
OAK 6.8%
CWS 6.3%
STL 6.2%
ATL 5.1%
TOR 4.0%
SD 3.9%
NYY 3.8%
MIN 3.2%
TB 3.1%
MIL 2.7%
NYM 2.1%
BOS 2.1%
CIN 1.8%
CLE 1.4%
WAS 1.1%— SportsLine (@SportsLine) May 8, 2021
NL Postseason Odds:
Dodgers >99.9%
Giants >99.9%
Brewers 99.8%
Braves 86.2%
Reds 76.8%
Padres 16.7%
Phillies 16.5%
Mets 2.1%
Cardinals 1.9%All other teams under 0.1% https://t.co/oCOudnqwxP
— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) August 24, 2021
Wow, 1.9 seems much too low and the Reds’ 76.8 way too high. I’d put us at 12% and Cincy about 22%. Wonder why they hate our chances? Don’t answer that, Nate!
I’m going to venture an answer despite Pugsley’s admonition that I should remain silent. I think 76.8 and 1.9 are ridiculous numbers. Pugsley’s numbers are more realistic. I don’t know why Baseball reference does not like our chances but I am dubious every year because they only do enough in the off-season to remain mediocre. Junior calls it competitive. They never go far enough to make the Cardinals a tier one team. But they never promise to go all in and spend big to make the team better so they are truthful.
As usual, Nate’s (MSPaid to you newbies) post was money in the bank. And just for the record, since it has not been mentioned for a few years, Nate has a documented 182 Intelligence Quotient (IQ). Back in ’06, at The Birdhouse, for some strange reason, all of we posters revealed our IQ’s in a particular thread. My IQ does not warrant a revisit like Nate’s.
OK, if you prefer Fangraphs instead, they have the Cardinals’ odds double that of B-R – a whopping 4.2%. Reds are 63.5%. Feel any better?
Latest Cardinals odds from BetOnline.ag:
Win World Series: 50/1
Win NL Pennant: 28/1
Win NL Central: (off the board because of Milwaukee’s big lead)Current odds for second Wild Card, according to Baseball-Reference:
55.0 Reds
22.7 Padres
11.8 Phillies
2.6 Mets
2.4 CardinalsLooking back on the positive predictions from April, what happened? Was it more injuries or underperformance? Which would you pick?
Current odds for second Wild Card, according to Baseball-Reference:
55.0 Reds
22.7 Padres
11.8 Phillies
2.6 Mets
2.4 CardinalsThose odds dont seem to look too acurate anymore lol.
VEB had a good piece about the Edman 6-24-21 thoughts regarding his critique of the team’s performance.
FILED UNDER:
CARDINALS ANALYSIS
“Four Critical Failures” Revisited: Have the Adjustments Worked?PRE-EDMAN —- POST-EDMAN
Win% .480 —– .595
wRC+ 84—— 106
wOBA .291—– .326
BA .225—– .257
OBP .298—– .325
SLUG% .373—- .432
BB% 8.2—– 7.9
K% 22.7—- 21.9
fWAR 5.4—– 14.9Apparently things have improved.
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