Cardinals Odds and Projections

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  • #155054
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    #155057
    Avatarbccran
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    Is that the Arozarena that we traded, when we could have traded O’Neill, Bader, Thomas, or Williams, etc. instead?

    #155058
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    Only those involved in the trade discussions would know for sure if the names you specified were interchangeable. Any quotes to support your claim that they were interchangeable?

    #155059
    Avatarblingboy
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    Look at positives cranny. We got a pitcher who looked good in A ball. Needed one of those.

    #155061
    Avatarbccran
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    Yes, JJ. After the playoffs, Mo was asked directly if he could have included another outfielder in the trade besides Arozarena. He reluctantly said yes. Then followed by saying that they were reviewing the way they evaluate talent.
    We could have had both Arozarena and Carlson in the OF right now.

    #155066
    Avatarforsch31
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    Then maybe we need to get rid of Mo.

    Wait, that is also the same man who just traded for Arenado. He gave up a bunch of players that are either a long way from the majors or there is a lot of doubt whether they will be difference makers.

    So what are we complaining about again????

    #155070
    Avatarbccran
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    I’m complaining because they traded RA instead of HB, TO, or LT. That’s all. No big deal.

    #155071
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    There is absolutely nothing to indicate that the Rays would have taken any of the players you mention, bc. There have been numerous articles written on how the Rays zeroed in on Arozarena from the start. So yes, Mo could have traded someone besides Arozarena in the deal. That person’s name would be Dylan Carlson. Those are the facts.

    #155078
    Avatarbccran
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    I don’t believe that’s correct, 25. I believe they would have taken TO or HB in lieu of RA. Mo alluded that he could have sent someone else. It probably wouldn’t have been LT or JW. That wouldn’t have worked for TB.

    #155079
    Avatarmudville
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    MO did allude to that, and if that’s true, then the Rays weren’t ‘zeroing in’ on Arozarena. I have always believed that what the Rays were really after was what they initially said they were after, a cheap, right—hand DH. They paid a pretty steep price to get one. (I hope Jose Martinez sticks with the Mets. I always liked him.)

    BTW, let’s see how RA does after the scouts pick apart his swing.

    #155080
    Avatar858booyah
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    They wouldn’t have taken Bader.

    #155082
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    A whole lotta speculation being offered here as supposedly having substance…

    Read this:

    https://www.mlb.com/news/randy-arozarena-trade-to-rays-from-cardinals

    #155083
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    I don’t believe that’s correct, 25. I believe they would have taken TO or HB in lieu of RA. Mo alluded that he could have sent someone else. It probably wouldn’t have been LT or JW. That wouldn’t have worked for TB.

    I relistened to Mo’s season ending call, and the question came up if there were other names being tossed around or if Tampa was focused on Arozarena. His exact quote: “I’ve never really reopened my notes on that trade, but I do believe there were other names being tossed around.”

    Now, perhaps you take that to mean that Tampa would have accepted those other names being tossed around. I read articles like this:

    https://www.mlb.com/news/randy-arozarena-trade-to-rays-from-cardinals

    Here’s a snippet from it for you, since you don’t like links.

    “We’ve done this several times in other trades,” Ibach said. “We identify a player, maybe earlier in his career and for some reason, we don’t line up with that team at that time. It’s an opportunity to learn about a player, about a team’s appetite to move a certain player. You keep scouting the player and stay with him, you build history with players that way. Then maybe there’s a deal that does come together and you’re not scrambling to do your homework.”

    Taken with the rest of the article (if you take time to read it), it sure doesn’t read like Tampa was willing to accept other players as the same value as Arozarena in a trade. Perhaps they would talk about it, then circle back to the guy they really wanted. Like I said, Dylan Carlson, Randy or bust. We don’t get to keep both.

    #155084
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Here is another snippet from the same article, which 25 and I reference independently.

    “The Rays only made the deal because Arozarena provided both short- and long-term potential, even if they didn’t know just how dramatic the former would be.”

    We are back to playing Whac-A-Mole on Randy. I have lost track how many times this pet subject has come up on how many different threads.

    #155085
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Ha, great timing!!

    Fwiw, I believe the Cards probably took the same approach to Liberatore that the Rays took toward Arozarena, if they were being honest. It was rumored that they liked him a lot in 2018 before the draft and were disappointed when the Rays took him just ahead of them. They were probably happy to get a second chance at him. Hopefully the trade works out well for both teams.

    #155086
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Back on the subject of this thread, ESPN (subscriber article) has a new stock watch.

    Cubs at 89.7 wins
    Cardinals 84.8 (37% playoff odds)
    Brewers 81.7
    Reds 76.7
    Bucs 62.5 (#29, only ahead of COL)

    https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/30950569/mlb-stock-watch-first-look-win-projections-playoff-odds-more

    #155088
    Avatarbccran
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    Rays trying to say how smart they were scouting and insistent on RA in the trade? Sure they’re going to say that. Makes them look good rather than lucky.

    By the way, you guys obviously forgot to include Mo’s comment after he said that other names were tossed around. You know, the one about how they’re going to have to re-look at the way they value players?
    That’s sounds to me like an admission that he included the wrong guy in the trade.
    Doncha think?

    #155093
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    No, it could just as easily mean that they undervalued Randy compared to the Rays and wished they understood that so they could have gotten more for him. But you have proven over time that your views are rigid and overly repeated. So I will leave it at that.

    #155094
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    By the way, you guys obviously forgot to include Mo’s comment after he said that other names were tossed around. You know, the one about how they’re going to have to re-look at the way they value players?
    That’s sounds to me like an admission that he included the wrong guy in the trade.
    Doncha think?

    He didn’t say that then. I’ll let you go find it if you can figure it out.

    I also don’t think it means that they could have traded someone else in place of Randy. The Rays wanted Arozarena for years, as referenced in the article above.

    #155095
    Avatarbccran
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    “You’ve proven over time that your views are rigid and overly repeated.”

    Very nice, Brian. Thanks for the compliment. Maybe we should stay away from personal insults?

    #155098
    Avatarforsch31
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    How could it have been a personal insult? Haven’t you stated your views that the Cardinals could have included a different outfielder instead of RA in that trade on many different threads? Even when presented with good evidence that things COULD be different than your view, you still insist your view is absolutely correct. You do the same thing with Bader and the outfield in general.

    Why do you think there have been sooo many times that Brian, 25, jj and myself have went to the lengths that we have to dispute these claims?

    #155105
    Avatarbccran
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    Do you mean gone to great lengths, Forsch?

    You forget that many times I back up what I say with facts. And I did that with RA as far as his AAA and MLB numbers. They were better than all the other young outfielders. What I didn’t understand was that we were shallow in proven outfielders and fairly deep in pitching. So we trade an outfielder who had the best numbers for another starting pitcher. And there’s a huge outfielder donut hole at AAA, AA, and A. Still is. Am I happy we got Liberatore? You bet. But we didn’t trade a surplus for a need, in my humble opinion.
    It was an opportunist trade for a want.

    #155106
    Avatargscottar
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    Back on the subject of this thread, ESPN (subscriber article) has a new stock watch.

    Cubs at 89.7 wins
    Cardinals 84.8 (37% playoff odds)
    Brewers 81.7
    Reds 76.7
    Bucs 62.5 (#29, only ahead of COL)

    I still think the Cubs are being overvalued. Yes, they still have most of their offensive core so it is possible that Bryant, Baez, and Rizzo rebound and put up big numbers but their rotation could be very bad.

    Jay Jaffe of Fangraphs recently published an article about who might be after Odorizzi and this was their assessment of the Cub rotation, which is almost verbatim what I posted on February 23.

    Woof. Outside of Kyle Hendricks, the Cubs don’t project to have a single pitcher worth 2.0 WAR or even one that will fan more than 7.6 per nine, and while the quality of their defense mitigates that somewhat, this is particularly grim. Arrieta, Alec Mills, Trevor Williams and Adbert Alzolay may each have a facet or two that inspires hope of outpitching his projection: Arrieta, a former Cy Young winner, was an ace in Chicago; Mills threw a no-hitter last year; Willams was excellent in 2018; Alzolay “has mid-rotation upside assuming good health,” according to Eric Longenhagen. But together, that group projects for 3.7 WAR in 481 innings, which again, woof. Given how tight the NL Central should be, any upgrade could have an outsized impact, though it seems unlikely that cost-cutting Chicago is willing to travel that route.

    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-remaining-market-for-jake-odorizzi/

    #155136
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    When any poster has no credibility to lose, it’s a license to type anything.

    #155139
    Avatarforsch31
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    bc, I agree that you back up most of what you say. However, I think a lot of times it is with very weak arguments. As an example, I haven’t seen anything that says the Rays would have agreed to a trade without Arozarena. I have seen Mo’s comments that could mean several things: 1) He shouldn’t have traded Arozarena at all, 2) He should have gotten more for Arozarena, or 3) He needs to re-evaluate his scouting department. Just because other names were discussed doesn’t mean Tampa Bay would have accepted those other players unless it was Carlson. I guarantee you Tampa Bay would have made the trade for Carlson instead of Arozarena. And I don’t have anything to back up that last statement except for my gut based on Carlson’s scouting reports.

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