Cardinals Odds and Projections

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  • #154230
    blingboy
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    Interesting distinction, thanks.

    As to touted prospects, they can reasonably be expected to do more than they have. No argument there. I don’t know the historical figures, so I don’t know the odds that a particular one actually will play to reasonable expectation. One out of two maybe. Just a guess. Maybe less.

    The argument starts to get a bit more contorted as time passes and stats pile up. Bader at 1000 PAs requires some additional rationalization. DeJong at 1700 PAs more still. I am not a statistician, but I suspect that the odds of them actually performing to “expectation” declines as the number of past PAs they must outperform increases.

    #154233
    jj-cf-stl
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    Bling, your last sentence was was a very tactful way of saying downwards trends since 2018 don’t get reasoned away by a 2020 shortened season. Well done.

    #154234
    stlcard25
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    Bader is not a really important part of the offense so I don’t really have any rationalization for him. He’s a platoon bat and I hope he gets treated like one this year.

    Regarding Dejong, here are the results since 2018:

    2018-First half: .258/.341/.440
    Second half: .228/.292/.429

    He played 66 of the last 67 games

    2019-First half: .258/.343/.442
    Second half: .202/.285/.447

    He played 159 total games, 72 of 74 post AS break

    2020-July/August: .321/.362/.509
    September: .202/.312/.363

    He missed 11 games on his COVID break, then played 45 of the other 47 games with his off games being the 2nd game of a DH against Cincy and one against KC.

    The data is pretty obvious and I hope Mo/Shildt have paid attention. If Dejong plays 145ish games they could have an .800 OPS, 5ish WAR SS. If they try to push him out to 155+ games again (or whatever the pace is when he’s not on the IL), he will be the <.750 guy with the tanking second half he has been the second half of every year. He’s not ironman, and that’s ok. Play Sosa against some lefties. Let Marp play 2B on a getaway day sometimes. This idea of running Dejong into the ground cost the team precious games last year and definitely in 2019 (remember the thrown away balls in September that cost at least one, maybe two games against San Fran and IIRC the Mets).

    #154237
    blingboy
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    I do hope DeJong gets regular breaks and benefits from it as you suggest. We could see massive production from the middle of the order if Dejong , Carlson and Edman perform to expectation.

    #154249
    blingboy
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    There is also the pitching side of things to consider in the 2021 projection. There is a meaningful chance that we won’t get much out of the large majority of the pitching end of the payroll. Mikolos, Martinez and Miller soak up most of the money. I don’t think we can realistically project Mikolos until we see what happens here once things get under way and start hearing something. Martinez, it doesn’t matter what we see/hear on day 1 as it has little predictive value as to what we will see on day 2, or 3, etc. Will Miller have a healthy season? Will he be a home run derby pitcher again? Who knows.

    Flaherty has to return to form. Kim’s kidney issue has to be a one and done thing. And a bunch of young guys have to play to expectation.

    So just like on the position player side, a lot has to go right and a lot less has to go wrong. I am not sure how the odds stack up there. We do have history of pulling a rabbit out of a hat on the pitching side though. I have my fingers crossed.

    #154252
    stlcard25
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    The Cards were 4th in the league in ERA last year with well over 10% of the innings taken up by guys who had no reason to even be pitching in St Louis under normal circumstances (Oviedo, Elledge, Woodford, Crismatt, Sanchez, Kaminsky, Ramirez, Meisinger, Cruz).

    I have far less concern about the pitching than the offense. There are a lot of quality arms. Flaherty never left form unless you count that one start against Milwaukee that would have been papered over in a normal year (remember how he mowed down the vaunted Padres lineup in October? Yeah, he’ll be fine). Mikolas, Kim, Waino, Carlos, Ponce, Reyes…all have some question marks, sure. It seems like your “expectation” is decline, not staying steady, BB. While it’s possible, of course…is it really likely?

    #154254
    blingboy
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    “The Cards were 4th in the league in ERA last year with well over 10% of the innings taken up by guys who had no reason to even be pitching in St Louis under normal circumstances . . .”

    Yes exactly. And for some reason these 2020 pitching performances should not be discounted as with the offensive side of things?

    #154257
    stlcard25
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    Yes exactly. And for some reason these 2020 pitching performances should not be discounted as with the offensive side of things?

    So if we discount them, where do we go? In 2019, they were 2nd with basically all the same pitchers. 6th in 2018. I see nothing that says that things should change dramatically. Again, it seems you expect decline when there’s not really any reason to think it should happen.

    #154264
    gscottar
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    I think some of these projections like Pecota are really missing the boat on how good the Cards will be with pitching and defense. Even after losing Wong this could be the best defensive team the Cardinals have had in a decade or longer.

    Molina: mutliple gold gloves and still solid.
    Goldy: mutliple gold gloves and still elite.
    Edman: a question mark but should be better at 2B than he was at 3B.
    DeJong: very solid with the potential of being a future gold glover if he gets enough rest.
    Arenado: multiple gold gloves and still elite.
    O’Neill: gold glove winner and still elite.
    Bader: elite CF and should be a gold glove winner.
    Carlson: has all of the tools to be a very solid corner OF.

    I think our rotation is the best in the division and I feel that our bullpen is vastly underrated. I would put Hicks, Gallegos, Reyes, Miller, and Gant up against anyone.

    #154275
    stlcard25
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    Another casualty of 2020…base running. Per Fangraphs, the Cards were 18th in the majors in base running in 2020 (which would include steals vs caught stealing, first to third on hits to the OF, tagging up, scoring from 2nd on singles, etc). In 2019 they were 2nd in the entire majors. In 2018, 3rd. Losing Wong and adding Arenado may hurt slightly, although not a huge amount.

    It’s not as big a deal as pitching or hitting, or even defense, but the Cards could and maybe should be very good or better on the base paths in 2020. The rest of the division is hardly a bunch of juggernauts, so even average pitching, below average hitting and very good defense and base running should put them solidly at or near the top of the NL Central. And that’s the realistic worst case scenario. Best case is top 5 pitching, defense and base running with a middle of the pack offense. That’s a team that can win the Series with some decent luck and timing.

    #154295
    shakenbake McBride
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    Can anyone out there find stats that indicate whether or not the constant shifting of infielders has made certain infield positions more or less valuable defensively that in previous years?

    #154305
    Brian Walton
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    This makes sense…

    #154319
    gscottar
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    Those projections look spot on to me.

    #154359
    mspaid
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    90 wins? Because of one acquisition? A good acquisition to be sure…an all-star but there are still many holes in the Cardinals roster. Win the division? Probably but we need to play the season first.

    #154364
    Brian Walton
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    Well, nate, I actually agree with you this time. If we wait until after the season to make the predictions, they will be far more accurate! 😉

    #154371
    1982 willie
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    I think 90 wins is very attainable if we take care of business within the division. If we just go 500 with our own division, I say it’s a struggle. I just don’t expect it if out main guys on both sides perform up to par, I’m not taking about exceeding their potential.

    #154649
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    I guess this bit of player projections belongs here…. what I want to do when I have more time is to sort these 800 by team. Should be interesting. ps…. Edman is higher than DeJong.

    Fantasy 2021: The Top 800 players this year
    February 19th, 2021
    Thomas Harrigan

    https://www.mlb.com/news/fantasy-baseball-2021-player-rankings?partnerId=zh-20210220-156906-MLB&qid=1026&bt_ee=FQBGeUtgDQMPf2MsN2XeO2UEmmdNz9aaSVMok8BmwjIj2taNeTpMV%2FqqpgwlwoBl&bt_ts=1613824907391

    #154657
    mspaid
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    Brian:

    Clever as always. My point was actually, very simple. Wait until the season is played before claiming exceptionality. We need more than just Arenado.

    #154716
    Brian Walton
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    #154728
    bicyclemike
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    Looking at 2021 I am going to take the over on 90 wins, but barely. I think we will be around 92. This club could be really good if Arenado, Goldschmidt, Flaherty and Mikolas are close to the top of their games, just to throw a few names out there.

    And you figure there is room for improvement from a lot of guys – DeJong, Bader, O’Neill, Carlson, Reyes, Cabrera, Martinez. Some of those guys should have pretty good years.

    Now there will be subpar seasons from some of those listed, and possibly others like Molina and Wainwright who are long in the tooth. Then I wonder how much better the Arenado-Edman duo will be than Edman-Wong. It could be anywhere from much better, to where we look back the WAR value is only a 1 or 2 game difference.

    But overall I think this club will be real good, with a range being from a juggernaut outfit that wins 100 games, to a disappointing group that has a hoard of injuries and poor seasons to come in at 85 victories.

    #154752
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    to a disappointing group that has a hoard of injuries and poor seasons to come in at 85 victories.

    You can figure that there will be injuries from a historical viewpoint but you just can’t predict who and when. No major injuries and this team will be considered WS candidates. Stay healthy lads.

    #154756
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    Pecota: NL CENTRAL 2/15/21

    Milwaukee 88.9 73.1 .549 795 727 54.1
    Chicago 85.3 76.7 .527 847 804 28.1
    St. Louis 80.7 81.3 .498 754 765 11.0
    Cincinnati 78.8 83.2 .486 795 818 6.8
    Pittsburgh 61.0 101.0 .377 671 862 0.0

    Really For sure?

    #154757
    Brian Walton
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    Did they have a monkey pick numbers out of a hat?

    #154760
    stlcard25
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    I believe that their model has undershot the Cards win total 8 of the last 10 years and only been accurate twice, not overestimating even once. I’d guess it’s because they project regression from the Cardinal veterans, overrate the funky 2020 and never take defense into account. I fully expect 90ish wins.

    #154805
    gscottar
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    Pecota’s projections are putrid. Yes, we were on pace to be a 84 win team last year but you have to take into account the brutal schedule we played due to covid. So this year they have us at 81 wins? Huh? Yes, we lost Wong and Hudson but we are adding Mikolas Hicks, and some guy who is usually top 10 in MVP voting. Maybe they are dinging us because we lost Fowler and Wieters.

    I can somewhat understand the expectations for the Brewers. I think they have an underrated roster but the Cubs? I don’t think so. Maybe Bryant, Rizzo, and Baez all have bounce back years but their rotation is atrocious. They have Hendricks and a bunch of number five starters. Zach Davies? I would rather have Ponce. Jake Arrieta? This isn’t the 2015-16 version. Alec Mills? He threw a no hitter but the rest of his season was garbage. He is basically Jose Jimenez or Bud Smith. Adbert Alzolay? He is their version of Johan Oviedo and I would rather have Oviedo. Trevor Williams? Again, I would rather have Ponce.

    Pecota should be embarrassed.

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