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All of this discussion just serves as a reminder that no Cardinal fan should be concerned if Ozuna returns or not. Sure, having 25 HR’s and 90 RBI’s in the lineup looks good but why pay $15 to $20M per year for that when we should be able to come close to that production for much cheaper?
Some will ask “how can you be so confident the young guys can replicate that production?” The reason I am confident is that we aren’t relying on just one young guy to do it. We have a Plan B, C, D, etc….. Between O’Neill, Thomas, Arozarena, Williams, and Carlson we don’t need all of them to be hot at the same time. We really only need one. Surely out of that group Shildt can keep a hot bat in LF everyday, and that doesn’t even include Edman.
Great summarization, gscottar. It will be interesting to assess the production of Carp and DeJong over the 1st several months. I agree it would be great if Carlos and Alex came through on the pitching side, but we should be deep enough in starters and in the bullpen that we’ll be okay in any event.
I’ve seen them all come through Memphis as a season ticket holder. I say give O’Neill a shot in left and Arozarena a shot in center. O’Neill has tremendous power, a good glove, good arm and is almost as fast as Bader. If he can’t figure out major league pitching by June 1 dump him and call Carlson up. If O’Neil is hitting he’s good to have come up after Goldy. Arozarena is just great in the clutch. I never see him hitting a bunch of HRs but down here he’s always come through just when you’ve needed him to. The Curt Flood type. Let him and Bader fight over center. I guess we’re destined to see Fowler in right, could he just maybe bat over .250.
Thomas has just been average down here though he shows pop every now and then. He needs a bit more everyday play. I don’t give Fowler or Carp much leeway with Edmans around.
gscottar, I suspect your summary is how the Cardinals are looking at it, but they also know a segment of the fan base is still angry they didn’t sign Bryce Harper and release Dexter Fowler. They will soft pedal on Ozuna and only bring him back if he falls into their lap.
The Cards are always better with players they know – how they are as a teammate, with the manager and coaches, front office, fans, in the community, etc. If they really want to bring Ozuna back, I believe they will.
In spring training, throw ONeil 10 sliders in a row making sure each one is a foot outside the zone. If he swings at one trade him. Bader was taught a lesson on that pitch but soon forgot it. Sliders are real killers in the game now.
bccran said:
If they really want to bring Ozuna back, I believe they will.
Only if they are willing to meet his demands. For how much money and how many years? Seems crystal clear that Ozuna wants more than he is being offered. To close a deal, one side of the other would have to change their position.
O’Neill, Arozarena, Carlson, Thomas – I guess I just don’t get what some people are seeing in these guys? What have they ever done to make anyone think they can hit .270/25/90 in a full year?
Its sort of a dilemma for us. If – IF – we knew Ozuna would average .275/30/100 for the next few years I am sure we would offer him a nice contract. I don’t think any of those young guys would come close to that. And folks, we need offense and we need it bad! Some are counting on Goldschmidt, Carpenter, Fowler, and DeJong to rebound but that is risky.
In the meantime I am heading down to the Gasthof, the amish restaurant, and having catfish fiddlers, mashed potatoes/gravy, green beans, noodles, sweet potatoes, boiled carrots, sweet tea, and some cherry cobbler and then some soft serve ice cream for dessert.
r/Esteemed Rat
The fact that Dylan Carlson was named as one of the best 3 outfielders in minor league baseball in 2019 should carry some weight. And when have we ever seen the following slash line at Memphis, which another of OF prospects had? –
.358/.435/.593/1.028.Some additional background. From August 1 on, pretty much the entire Memphis offense was on fire. Seven Redbirds regulars had OPSes over 1.000, led by Bader and Adolis. Carlson was in the middle of that group. During that time, his BABIP was .429, not a sustainable rate. We must also remember that it was just 18 games. (Thomas’ time in StL is diminished by some because it was limited, too (34 games)).
In a general sense, the lower-seamed ball used this season at Triple-A drove offense up everywhere in the PCL and IL. That has caused many across the game to take pause over the high numbers.
We ranked all these players as prospects, but neither that nor their prior numbers will carry any weight this spring, as it should be.
GC, good question. I have no idea. The last I read on this, in December, MLB finally admitted the seams were lower, but wrote it off as “normal manufacturing variability”. A number of people who follow this much more closely than me believe that MLB has little credibility on the matter after they insisted for months that the ball was the same as before. They own the company that makes the balls so they can’t point too many other fingers, though they also partially blame launch angle for the record HR rate.
Anne Rogers MLB.
It will be interesting to see how the Cardinals approach the leadoff spot considering that in 2019, it was one of the least effective ones in the Majors. St Louis’ leadoff batters combined for a .216 average — second only to the Cubs for worst in the Majors — and a .355 slugging percentage, the worst in the Majors. Finding the right leadoff solution could spur an improved offense. Start the improvement from the top.
We all know the reasons why those figures are so low.
I didn’t read that article, but what is shared here lacks insight. First of all on what a leadoff hitter is supposed to do and secondly, what to do about it. (Maybe there was more after that snip. Next time, please share the link so it is easier for the rest of us to read the whole article. Thanks in advance.)
On the first point, this is 2020. Citing batting average for a leadoff man is 1968 thinking. Citing slugging at all makes no sense whatsoever. Duh, what about on-base percentage? Oh yeah, showing that would make the supposed bad news not look so bad. Classic case of cherry-picking stats to try to push a point.
To the second point, I’d like to see Wong given a shot leading off. His offense has improved each year since the managerial change enabled him to play most every day. Wong’s .361 OBP led the 2019 team.
I am curious where Carlson will hit when he is called up? Maybe second, or third in front of Goldschmidt? I also am hoping Wongs 2019 finish was a sign of things to come.
That would be a lot of pressure on a rookie to put him in the top third of the lineup day one. Maybe you chance it if he was hitting well in his days leading up to the promotion. But the bigs isn’t the same as Triple-A. A lot to absorb. And if they put him in center field on top of it, even more pressure.
Speaking of the Cards MLB writer, there was a definite change when she took over and I think it may have been MLB wide. Previously after each game you could read a pretty good summary of the game with highlights and lolights. Great for folks who missed the game. But when Rogers took over, every game summary only concentrated on one subject be it the performance of the pitcher or a player who got a bunch of hits or some reliever who did something to save or lose the game. No longer is it a summary overall of the entire game. Am I the only one to see that or is it MLB wide. There was a guy reporter between the two women. I think his name was Joe Trezza and I was hoping he would get the permanent assignment because he always wrote a great summary but it was not to be.
Trezza was a big improvement over Langosch and Rogers. He has since moved on with MLB to cover the Orioles.
https://www.mlb.com/news/orioles-2020-season-important-dates
I wasn’t sure which thread to put this in but I found this very interesting. I have mentioned before that I believe that under Andrew Friedman the Dodgers front office now operates very very similar to the Cardinals, which is an emphasis on a strong farm system, hanging on to prospects, re-signing your own veterans, dabbling in trades and free agency at a modest level, and most of all trying to be an annual contender without mortgaging the future. One difference is despite all of the recent success the Dodgers haven’t won the World Series since 1988 and their fan base is getting restless.
Read this article and see if this sounds exactly like what you would hear from a Cardinal executive.
The #Dodgers offseason is discussed (and defended) by team president/CEO Stan Kasten: https://t.co/RqwuyoIee4 pic.twitter.com/h04RwoQhjF
— MLB Trade Rumors (@mlbtraderumors) January 6, 2020
I dunno about that. There are some similarities in his generic comments, but a lot of teams are doing that kind of stuff.
This very important point about the salary threshold is very, very un-Cardinal like. More Cubs-like, in fact.
“the team we have now is not going to be the team we have to start the postseason,” Kasten said. “I expect that team, this year, it looks like it’s going to be well over the CBT, or somewhat over.”
Since he is at $189 MM against the CBT right now, he is telling everyone that he has at least one big deal still coming, and maybe more, that will add at least $20 MM more to their payroll. (The CBT is $208 MM.) I don’t think any of us expect the Cards to say or do anything like that.
Unlike the Cards, the Dodgers have a recent history of major deadline additions, including Manny Machado in 2018, Yu Darvish in 2017 and Rich Hill in 2016. It is not the Cardinals who are linked to Lindor and Betts in trade rumors…
Seems like Plashke is impatient like so many fans… I agree with Kasten that calling the Dodgers cheap when they are going over the threshold is not sensible. If it was me, I would focus on asking why they aren’t getting better post-season results for all that cash they have been spending. The problem isn’t money – the problem is three decades plus with no titles.
The Dodgers are always “in” on someone or “linked” to someone but rarely do they pull the trigger under Friedman. The only free agent they have signed from outside their organization is AJ Pollock, not exactly a headliner. That is what is irking their fans, which sounds very similar to our fan base.
Also, if you drill down on the Dodger payroll numbers you will see that they still owe some money to players not on the roster leftover from the previous regime. If I am not mistaken the previous regime there actually had a payroll of over $300M once. Friedman has it down to $187 right now and a lot more will come of the books after this year. I have studied him close and his patterns are very similar to Mo’s: Build from within, hold onto the prospects, re-sign your own veterans, and occasionally splurge on a trade or free agent. This isn’t your grandpa’s Dodgers.
The big issue for the Dodgers has been the lack of postseason success. A number of times they’ve had the clear best team and have still fallen short. I like Friedman and think he runs a great team but he will eventually be forced out if they can’t win the Series. It’s just the way it goes in big city, big $$ baseball.
I think you are right stl25. They are feeling the pressure but Friedman’s mantra is to build a team that can get to the playoffs every year and eventually things will bounce your way and you will win it all. Sound familiar?
The difference is that the Cardinals have been able to finish the job and the Dodgers haven’t.
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