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Memphis at New Orleans: Tyler Lyons
Springfield at NW Arkansas
Palm Beach vs. Fort Myers
Peoria at Quad Cities
State College at Williamsport
Johnson City vs. Burlington
GCL Cards at Mets: Perry DellaValle
DSL Blue vs. Yankees: Francis Ventura
DSL Red at Rangers2: Ludwin JimenezMalcom Nunez went 2-4 today, homering for the third game in a row. Like yesterday, the game log described it as a line drive to right field. That’s an opposite field liner for a homer, by a 17-year-old, in back-to-back tilts. Strong kid.
Season line now .422/.511/.782
Since his 4 strikeout game of July 20th: .470/.545/.840 in 123 trips to the plate
Over his last 14 games: .412/.516/.922 with 7 homers and 7 strikeouts
So, for any skeptics who think the sample size is too small to be truly 100% meaningful, it certainly appears that the longer Nunez is in the league, the better his numbers will get. In other words, if anything his overall OPS of nearly 1.300 may well underestimate his current talent level.
All of this in a league where no one of any age has slugged .650 or better since at least 2005. A league where the 17-year-old Miguel Sano hit .344/.463/.547, after which he was ranked the #60 overall prospect by Baseball America and #31 by Baseball Prospectus.
Sano had an elite scouting pedigree. Nunez has a very good scouting pedigree, and a lengthy record of clobbering the baseball in the Cuban Junior Leagues. And now Nunez’ performance has far exceeded Sano’s at the same age and level of competition.
Would you trade the kid straight up for Almora? As fine as a rookie campaign as Almora has had, I don’t think I’d pull the trigger on that deal.
I wouldn’t trade him straight up for Almora for 3 reasons.
1) Almora is tainted – he is a Cub
2) Almora has never put up an OPS+ above league average.
3) Almora is tainted – he is a Cub.
Great question, Pugs. Which Cubs would I trade the kid for?
Not Almora, in large part because the Cards don’t need a defense-minded 2-3 WAR centerfielder. Bader looks like a better version of Almora right now. Maybe much better. And even though I’d rank Cub catching prospect Miguel Amaya well ahead of Nunez on an overall prospect list, I’m not sure I’d trade the latter for the former, because the Birds have numerous backstop prospects, including two I like better than Amaya — who happens to be the best Cub overall farmhand, and a top 60 or 70 guy.
One thing about Nunez, there’s of course a low, low floor, as in he never becomes a major leaguer, period. It could be that injuries get him, or his plate discipline collapses at the higher levels, or he can’t handle the plus-plus velocity he’ll face routinely in MLB these days. It could even be that his tremendous current strength is a Delvin Perez-style fraud. (Not that I have any reason AT ALL to believe this. But it is naïve to think these things aren’t going on. Obviously.)
But the other thing: for Malcom the offensive upside is star level. And stars are so very hard to grow from scratch, and even harder to trade for in the double wildcard era, when every year 22-25 teams think they have a shot at the playoffs. (Try to name a 4+-win player on a team that has no playoff shot this year, or next year.) So even if he’s got just a 5-10% chance to remain a distinctly better batter than Miguel Sano has been, I think you have to stick with him.
I think I evaded that question pretty well.
On Tuesday, the #stlcards system went 3-6. Player of the Day and reigning Florida State League Player of the Week Stefan Trosclair was on base four times, including a triple, scored and plated two in Palm Beach’s win. https://t.co/JECsqKQTqm pic.twitter.com/b9is86m6Ga
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) August 22, 2018
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