- This topic has 2,485 replies, 69 voices, and was last updated 1 year, 9 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Well, the biggest differences that I can think of between 2022 and 2023 are:
Molina – even a much reduced Molina could still handle the pitching staff.
Puhols – that second half was pure magic and didn’t come anywhere near to being replaced.
Mike Maddox – pitching coach
Skip Schumaker – bench coach
Goldschmidt & Arenado – both declined at the plate, Arenado also in the field
I don’t see any of the above getting better in 2024.
Gray will help but how much better is he than Montgomery really?
Now, I do think the staters are going to contribute more innings which will absolutely help out the strain on the bullpen.
If zero more moves are made I see this as a team that will improve from 20 games under to 5-10 games under but I think there are more moves to come.
Walker and Donovan are going to hit better – Goldschmidt and Arenado need to be at least slightly better than last year. A whole season of Contreras without catcher-gate should help.
DeJong is gone and with him a whole lot of tension and disappointment.
There is no way you can compare how the team is ran now to how the team was ran in the 80s. First off there was no wild cards which changes a lot of things. So they weren’t hoping to be just good enough to get into the fray. You had to be good enough to win the division. So managers kind of knew where their team stood in that system from season to season. If they thought they had a team with a good shot at making a run, they went into post season differently than if they didn’t see it happening. Sure everyone played the games to win but managers and ownership weren’t dumb. They always had a generalized plan in my opinion. Injuries like always played into that but still it’s different when you have to be good enough to beat your whole division as opposed to getting lucky of being one of the best of the not so good.So comparing the fact that the team back then had years when they didn’t win to this team in the now to me is a big disservice. Not saying this team can’t win cause the central isn’t that good. But then again just like last year if you don’t win it, that fact makes you look even worse. If the same things that went bad last year continues this year then it becomes a trend not a one off. After that the sonny gray deal could become an anchor as well.
Team building was different in the 80’s that is true but players don’t always perform the same every year regardless of how the team was built. They have ups and downs. We had way too many guys having a down year least year.
2022 compared to 2023
Why the difference ? We have been trying to figure that out for months but we really don’t know. Weak rotation? Lack of leadership? Perhaps so but sometimes teams just have a down year and then bounce back.
The answer is very clear. The “weak rotation”.
I don’t want to stir up the bad memories of last season (I’m starting to tear up as in crying already) but outside of Montgomery the rest of the starters were ineffective. Maybe Mikolas had an average year for him. IMO the biggest culprit was running Wainwright to the mound from early May right up until October. You can count the games on your hand that he wasn’t a disaster. But he is Wainwright and since we were dead in the water sometime in May anyway, his special status lead to special treatment. Okay he got a pass because of that elusive quest for his 200th. But it was painful to watch him fail on so many occasions.
Flaherty never made it back to his #1 status… not even close. Bye, bye at the deadline. Matz was again a disappointment. Although when he came back in mid-July for 7 starts and 6 of them were well pitched games. But he was back on the IL in early Aug. There is a glimmer of hope for him in ’24.
Woodford had some unimpressive starts in April, basically replacing the injured Wainwright, and two at the very end of the season. And then there were the Memphis youngsters. You can bundle Liberatore, Hudson, Thompson and Rom together and call it a failure to reach MLB standards.
Let’s add this all up…. I get a very poor season with little chance of success. There were more negatives to figure in and not enough positives to counterbalance the bad.
Maybe the new-look rotation will be better and perhaps the next wave of younger pitchers will be better also. Its not reasonable to think that just Gray alone is going to turn this ship around but getting rid of the ’23 rotation alone will have more of a plus impact on next season then our new #1 guy. Addition by subtraction as they say, pure and simple.
Players do have down years. But most of the times especially as players get in their 30s, that’s not how it works. Players tend to just get worse. We have plenty of evidence ourselves with carpenter, Molina, waino, etc that shows that.
DeJong is gone and with him a whole lot of tension and disappointment.
I think Flaherty sort of fits in that catagory.
We should have known and certainly the front office and Ollie should have known we were in trouble with our starting rotation whith an aging Wainwright as a key member if not the #1 starter at the beginning of the season.
Not sure we won’t regret dumping Flaherty and moreso Hudson. I thought both were showing signs of regaining their pre-injury form.
Flaherty certainly didn’t show much at Baltimore though.
We should not forget that there was more to Jack than the numbers…
“Flaherty, though, doesn’t always appear in sync with the organization. Some with the club believe his remark in early May about, “Our whole staff, throwing pitches that don’t make sense,” led to the temporary removal of Contreras as catcher,” Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote in June.
https://theathletic.com/4615618/2023/06/16/mlb-athletics-vegas-owners-trade-decisions/
Things ebb and flow. For example look at the Kansas City Chiefs. They won the Super Bowl last year and look like a completely different team this year. Same head coach, most of the same star players, different results. Have they lost their edge? Are other teams gunning for them more? Is Travis Kelce focused too much on doing TV commercials and running around the country with Taylor Swift? Do the computers and algorithms factor those things into their predictions?
My point is that whether it is football or baseball you can’t remove the human element from the game. Players aren’t always predictable.
I think no one could have forecasted the unmitigated disaster that was 2023. Many worried that we would lose our spot atop the Central, but last place hardly seemed to be a possibility.
This year, the feasible range of outcomes certainly does include last place again. At this point I’d say we are looking to be around a .500 team with an error bar of 5 games or so. I’m sure the viewing public thinks similarly, which means the front office needs to change the narrative or fans will not come through the turnstiles, nor watch the local TV channel.
Hader vs Monty vs D. Robertson / Hector Neris?
Hader (20mil AAV)
Hader, Helsley, Gallegos/JoJo is a legit end game.Monty (20+ AAV)
Sets up Matz, GG and Helsley to close when ahead.David Robertson (1/10mil) and Hector Neris (2/20mil) estimates, helps build a tomorrow end game; if JoJo, GG and Helsley closed today.
Monty (20+ AAV)
Sets up Matz, GG and Helsley to close when ahead.In the Monty scenario, if the rotation makes it to opening day in tact, I agree that Matz would be in the pen in some capacity. But I think if there is an injury that will stretch to several starts or more, he is the first man up. That suggests he may be used in a multi inning role. Later in the year, maybe there will be somebody in Memphis to bring up. Of course, we don’t really know what the Memphis rotation will look like when they open their season. Or the Springfield rotation.
Barring injuries, there appears to be a very competitive starting pitchers situation with all 4 full season minor league clubs. As of now, there are way more candidates than spots open.
Memphis should have Kloffenstein, ROM, Robberse, Thompson, Graceffo, Mcgreevy among others.
Springfield should return Roby, Cornwell, and Hence, with Rajcic and Bedell moving up from Peoria. Santos, Hansen and Paniaugua might be in the mix too.
Peoria likely has Hjerpe, Hansen, Paniaugua, Matthews, Rincon among the candidates.
Lin might make Palm Beach team, but more will be the 23 draftees like Savacool, Harrison, Worley. I am hopeful Willis finally stays healthy.
Hader vs Monty vs D. Robertson / Hector Neris?
Hader (20mil AAV)
Hader, Helsley, Gallegos/JoJo is a legit end game.Monty (20+ AAV)
Sets up Matz, GG and Helsley to close when ahead.David Robertson (1/10mil) and Hector Neris (2/20mil) estimates, helps build a tomorrow end game; if JoJo, GG and Helsley closed today.
Of those options I would choose signing Monty.
I would then try to trade Matz and use those savings on shoring up the bullpen.
GS, moving Matz wouldn’t be hard to do with everyone building their next seasons rotation.
I’m bullish on Matz for 2024. His most recent 2nd half was very good, but maybe that makes now, a good sell opportunity.
I hope you explore Matz for pen help, I’m interested. The budget is tapped after a Monty signing, so no pressure, just add impact to the pen 🙂
I am pleased with pitching additions, especially after adding (yawn) Lynn and Gibson. We have as much minor league pitching depth as we ever have. The trade deadline acquisitions helped a lot with Saggesse and Roby among others.
I would like to have seen someone other than Gibson signed. But if we can get another quality reliever signed that could give us a chance to win the division.
And we retained all of our young kids. They could be trade chips at the deadline for more pitching.
GS, moving Matz wouldn’t be hard to do with everyone building their next seasons rotation.
I’m bullish on Matz for 2024. His most recent 2nd half was very good, but maybe that makes now, a good sell opportunity.
I hope you explore Matz for pen help, I’m interested. The budget is tapped after a Monty signing, so no pressure, just add impact to the pen
Whoever trades for Matz is probably not going to send much back in return. Just taking his salary off of our books and giving us a AA prospect would be fine with me. We could then take that $12.5M in payroll space and look for a FA reliever or two.
If Mo can trade Matz at 2/22mil, his original signing AAV, STL should, after they have Monty signed.
Even if Mo pays the 3mil that was backloaded, he has 2/20 reclaimed. Still could sign some saves for 10mil, after adding Monty, and re-visit by the deadline.
With the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Braves, Rangers, Padres, Astros, Red Sox, and a couple of other franchises spending like it’s the cold war arms race, teams with owners like the Cardinals and fans better hope one of the new money billionaires buys them or their hopes of completing for championships is over. In the Cardinals case, it’s been over for a while anyway.
I wish they would sell and give this fan base hope because they aren’t trying very hard to compete. Signing and frankly overpaying three over-the-hill hurlers does nothing to move the needle. Everyone enjoy watching all of the big dogs sign the players while the Cardinals assume their position as lap dogs waiting for the table scraps to fall to complete their roster?
Any given ‘star’ player acquisition may or may not work out but with multiple signings usually some of them will. The Padres last year are an example of big spending not working out but for franchises that have and are willing to keep spending big and paper over their mistakes with more dollar bills – yeah it’s pretty tough for teams like the Cardinals to truly compete.
Sure, sneak into the grossly expanded playoffs and fool yourself into thinking you have a chance at the brass ring…..but it’s becoming apparent that other than the very occasional outlier season – it ain’t happening. When it does the team that pulls it off is quicky disassembled and picked over by the vultures with all the money.
There are teams that think like winners and there are teams that are satisfied to pick over the scraps left on the ground by the serious thinkers in hopes of getting lucky and sneaking into the playoffs with a wild card.
Read a article on Redbird rants about the Cardinals grade for this off-season. It gave them a B. I don’t agree. Gray was a great pickup but very costly which is fine if you go out and get another equally fine player but they haven’t. Getting two old guys even if they have the potential to eat innings is F level territory. We gained nothing by getting rid of oneil. So my grade is a C at best. If they do another deal I might change it but right now when you add two low hanging rotting fruit and one really good pitchers, that isn’t anything better than average
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.