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If it’s ok to talk about baseball again, instead of each other, I’ll take Hader over Montgomery for the next 5 seasons, and I’m not talking of anyones WAR stat.
We saw what Monty gave us, and without adequate bullpen support, he really didn’t move the needle. He was as good as the rest of the staff would allow.
Hader adds the game impact to support every acquisition Mo has made so far, and future rotations. The WPA impact we lack in the pen, is exactly what the roster needs now.
I agree that hader would or could be a solid pickup. Without better arms in bullpen, starter doesn’t matter that much unless they most always going 9 innings
The Dodgers have a very risky rotation. buehler, Yamamoto, glasnow…pretty crazy to rely on a ton of risk like that.
But they’ll probably sign Montgomery or something also knowing them.
Historically highest payroll teams do see a better W-L record, but not so much of a better record in post season.
The Cardinals get some flak for their approach to get to the post season and see what happens, but there is empirical support for that approach. Just this season with Texas and Arizona was yet another example of what can happen in the post season tourney.
And the more MLB waters down the playoff the more we will see the favorites fall by the wayside in the playoffs.
Investing in starters is almost always a better investment than investing in relievers. I like Hader a lot but the Cardinals have a horrific history of spedning on free agent relievers. Plus it doesn’t make sense for an organization that claims to be a draft and develop organization to forfeit two draft picks in a year in which they will have their highest drafting position in decades.
Whatever help for the pen there is will probably come from trades. Some of the names who haven’t cut it in MLB and AAA will be offed. IL list regulars too. Mo didn’t acquire all these guys because he likes what we already had.
Mo might be trying to acquire that young cost controlled pitcher in trade he has spoke of, but he also has seen Kimbrel, Will Smith and Matsui sign elsewhere as free agents.
As long as Hader, Neris and David Robertson are available, there are still high leverage FA relievers available.
I’m not opposed to a Hader signing, but I still think Neris and D. Robertson on short term deals is the best play.
We saw what Monty gave us, and without adequate bullpen support, he really didn’t move the needle. He was as good as the rest of the staff would allow.
This is a very astute point. It sort of dovetails with the phenomena of the big spending teams that end up with poor results despite having big stars. Its a team sport, and the players around the stars matter.
But I think that it is important to understand that the poor performance of the rotation as a whole affected the performance of the pen. There were far too many short starts, and far too many holes already dug when the pen came into games. Not that the pen was great, but the circumstances made them worse than they were.
If that point is accepted, then it follows that the situation should be much improved. The presumed 2024 rotation will be much better in the innings/quality start area, which will make the pen better, even if there were no personnel changes there at all. The better pen performance will enable starters to move the needle. I am not the hugest Mo fan ever, but I think he zeroed in on a key factor and addressed it admirably. But I agree another top starter and some high powered pen help would turn good to great.
Reinforcing the pen now positions us well to be buyers at the deadline.
We know Mo is capable of adding impact to fill a need (Monty/Quintana), if we get to buyer status.
Good discussion, but I question the “no personnel changes at all” in the pen.
Hicks is gone as is Stratton, who between them delivered 1.9 fWAR over a partial season. Right now, one could reasonably argue the 2024 pen is worse. Even with an addition or two ahead, they’d need to pick up a couple of WAR just to stay even.
Wondering if the additions to the rotation balance out the pen losses? Then again, Monty and Flaherty delivered 4.2 fWAR in 2023 themselves before leaving… A lot of puts and takes…
I am for adding to the bullpen. However, I would stay clear of Hader. My concern is fit within the clubhouse. I did not like feel of how things ended in San Diego … in the clubhouse in particular.
I would also add that the move to get three starters early is looking really good right now.
I agree there will be personnel changes in the pen, and there have been already. I was making the point that improving the rotation would improve the pen apart from any changes in the pen arms. And further, that the improvement in the pen will enhance the effectiveness of the starters. It illustrates why I think adding Lynn and Gibson is huge even though they are not top arms any more. A very excellent move by Mo to take a chunk out of the big scary problem, without taking on a huge risk. Add to that acquiring the reigning AL Cy runner up as the #1, it is remarkable.
I do agree that we need a second top shelf arm to compete hard in post season, but we do not need that second arm this winter, and there is something to be said for waiting, to get one that is still healthy as the deadline approaches.
At this point, any addition must be significant. Each roster addition will cost a Fermin or Naile-type. There seems to be plenty of dry powder, but not for two or three mid-level players, since the added value is minimal and carries roster implications.
Picking just one free agent seems risky and too competitive. The trade route seems far more likely, but I bet Mo won’t have the stomach for multiple deals.Bling is spot on that a lot of the problems with the pen last year stem from the fact that that rotation imploded far too often. I think signing Monty would give us a very solid rotation and would give the team a totally different vibe from last year. Losing can breed losing so Monty, like a lot of players, will peform better when the team is winning because he won’t have to shoulder so much of the responsibility. He would slot in nicely between Gray and Mikolas in the rotation. Matz would either go to the pen or be traded for salary relief to use for bullpen additions.
The trade route seems far more likely, but I bet Mo won’t have the stomach for multiple deals.
We’ll see how his stomach will feel if he doesn’t add a #1/#2 starter.
I doubt they will be able to match Monty’s asking price. The Mets and Yankees will offer significantly more after losing out on Yamamoto
I always like when people say well we can add someone at the trade deadline to help in post season. You have to be in contention for that to happen and you need good pieces to get us to that point. Our bullpen is still very weak, the starters we have aren’t going to change that fact that much.
The pen we have right now is not really any different than it was in 2022 when we won 93 games. Helsley and Gallegos got all the saves then and they are still here now. We had Hicks and Woodford doing middle relief then, so we need different middle relief. That needs to be addressed but the issue is hardly some big threat to the 2024 season. That especially since innings depth in the present rotation will take a lot of pressure off middle relief.
The pen needs to be better if we are going to compete hard in post season, but there is no urgency. BillyMo is in no sense backed into a corner like with the catcher situation last winter. Nothing bad will happen if a name brand late innings reliever isn’t signed to a big FA contract. Mo has brought a lot of new guys into the upper system, and he is not going to keep all of them plus all of what we already had. That means there will be trades and that market hasn’t even gotten off the ground yet.
I kind of agree with Bling. It’s the shopping season and we all covet new toys. But unless you get another top of the rotation pitcher, a couple relievers aren’t going to make the difference between being good and being average. Turning the defense around will make a difference. Solid managerial decisions will make a difference. Winning would make a big difference with our young core. I think for me seeing an energized team that plays hard AND smart is what I need to revive my interest in the team. That certainly wasn’t the case last year.
The Cards seem unlikely to be able to make much headway by adding to the rotation unless Goldy and Arenado give us at least 10 WAR. At their ages and given the decline in 2023, that’s hardly a given. I think you could pencil them in for 6 wins, but any more than that is getting a bonus.
To make up the difference, we are going to need a surprise All Star level performance from one of Walker, Gorman or Donovan. And that’s in addition to Edman and Noot being their usual, versatile, 3-5 WAR selves.
There’s just not much margin for error unless our stars play like stars.
I have tempered my expectations of Helsley and GG for 2024. We have plowed GG like a rented mule since Martinez was the closer and Helsley is coming off 2023 IL concerns.
JoJo I like as a late inning reliever, in that he could decrease the amount of appearances where our closers are asked to get four, maybe five outs, occasionally. He could fill the Genesis Cabrera role.
But then what? What about a save situation tommorrow, or three days in a row? These are all possible wins if we can close them out.
I can’t see upgrading the rotation now, with limited and questionable depth in save situations.
If the rotation is already built to crank out quality starts, as Bling has shown, our priority should be supporting that QS%.
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