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After last year’s trial run it would seem best for Winn to start the season in AAA. That is probably not what’s going to happen though unless he is simply awful at the plate during spring training.
I like Winn on the 26man and in a platoon with a good glove SS that hits righties well.
Winns career splits suggest he’s noticeably better vs lefty pitching. Acquire a Nicky Lopez type (4mil), and there are others, so that SS is covered.
For me, Edman is in CF. Edman/Noot both play CF, which helps maintain the CF depth when trading O’Neill and/or Carlson. The platoon SS acquired also helps prevent Edman from leaving CF, if Winn needs to sit or get sent down.
I think they should run Winn out there every day. He just needs to man up. We know he can hit. It’s a different situation with Walker. We know he can’t field. No amount of manning up will change that. The kool aid crowd think he’ll turn into Lonnie Smith, which I doubt, but its possible. Then he’d only be half as bad out there.
bling, please refrain from disparaging those who do not agree with you. No reason for discussion to degrade into name-calling. Thanks.
Haha…He’s a genuine adventure in the OF, but in no way does he retain the ability to compete with Skates when it comes to exploring new and uncharted areas of OF misadventures. Now that I’ve established my feelings on that, I’ll also say that I still think Lonnie Smith was the primary catalyst and MVP of the ’82 WS championship team.
LA, Edman is the constant, whether at SS or CF, he starts. You really should compare Winn vs the replacement value you let into the OF (by moving Edman to short).
Winn value vs Burleson value, i could agree with. Could be a good discussion.
Carlson / O’Neill may get traded? Say one is still here, but IL. Realistic enough? 🙂
Edman at SS leaves Noot in CF, flanked by Walker and Burleson, or Burleson and Donovan with Walker at DH. Throw in some Palacios.
That D alignment is shoddy, and one Nootbaar injury from being a D trainwreck. Guess who plays CF, then, if Noot is injured.
The value goes where Edman goes, until the young guys can match his production.
I guess I’m tired of the corner OF carousel. I prefer a Winn / Lopez (type) pairing at short, with Edman in CF.
This discussion reminds me of why it would be a much better idea to keep Carlson than O’Neill. Carlson can play a very good defensive CF whereas O’Neill seems rather shaky in CF. I am not sold on Edman as an everyday CF so it would be wise to keep Dylan around as insurance.
If Carlson had developed into the CF’r we are still hoping for, Winn could gradually gets his time at UI this season, with Edman at short. Since Bader was traded, we’ve been patching CF with a 2Bman and RF’r.
I’d have to say that it’s easy to see that Carlson is clearly the best defensive OF’er on this team. I’d also say that it only takes a few looks in a couple of games to discern that he’s very comfortable and belongs in a Big League OF. Whether or not he belongs in a Big League batter’s box is another matter.
jj – I seem to remember a post from you about a month back where you said your biggest upgrade is your worst position. The worst postion is SS with Winn at SS.
Right now, the outfield still has O’Neill, Carlson, Donovan, Walker, Nootbaar, Palacios, Burleson, Edman.
SS has Edman and Winn.
They can upgrade the outfield by using Walker at DH and trading Burleson. Burleson is really more of a 1B/DH. Quite frankly, he needs to be traded to a team that will use him as a 1B.
Edman does not offer a significant upgrade in the outfield over Nootbaar in CF.
The outfield defense improves by 2 WAR by playing Palacios in right instead of Walker.
For all we know, Victor Scott II will be ready for MLB playing time before Masyn Winn is ready.
The minors are used to develop players, correct? Why do we want to skip player development?
Are we trying to improve the team record in 2024, or finish in last place again?
Winn value vs Carlson value in 24′
We could start either, with Edman floating between CF/SS and starting full time.
I like Tommy’s 91 OPS+ better at middle infield than in the outfield. But I don’t like any outfield arrangement that can be made up from players now on the roster, and putting Edman out there may be the best arrangement we can come up with. Unless Mo comes up with something.
In 137 PA’s in 2023, Winn was worth -0.6 bWAR and -0.8 fWAR. That projects to NEGATIVE2.5 bWAR and NEGATIVE 3.6 fWAR in a full season.
Dylan Carlson’s worst season, his rookie season, he was worth POSITIVE0.1 bWAR and NEGATIVE 0.1 fWAR. This past year, he was worth POSITIVE 0.5 bWAR and POSITIVE 0.2 fWAR.
It’s really not even close.
If you are trying to go from last to first, you don’t play people that cost your team wins.
LA I think the expectation is that Winn will get substantially better since he hit well in Memphis. The expectation is Carlson will not get better and may well get worse since that is what he has done the last two years. So basicaly, with Winn there is hope and with Carlson there is not. I have no idea what Winn will do, but I have no interest in seeing Carlson and his 79 OPS+ get yet another chance.
BB…expectations by who?
As to the expectation that Winn will get better, almost everyone. Just amongst those here on this site, he was just unanimously voted the #1 prospect, and certainly will be also by Brian and Blake.
As to Carlson not getting better. I know that several here and elsewhere have said to the effect that it doesn’t seem likely, having had numerous chances already. Brian has previously countered an argument that Carlson would benefit from regular play by pointing out that he has already had almost 1500 MLB PAs and multiple chances. His non usage last season, even when everyone was injured suggests Cardinals management feels the same way. We need to face the fact that the first round shine is gone and he is not an answer. He does offer CF coverage for depth purposes
Winn has the tools to be a very good player. He may not get there for a few years though, so if you are wanting to win-now, you have to think about whether you want a young shortstop who will probably be much better a couple of years from now than in 2024 learning the ropes. Might be fine, but you are banking more on the future there than the present. The pitching deals so far are saying “let’s win in 2024, and worry about 2025 next year at this time.”
I am in the minority in that I think Carlson will be much better over the next 3-4 seasons than he has been to date. He will be at the age where player’s tend to peak, and given his natural ability I think he will get there with regular playing time.
Obviously that may not happen – it’s just my opinion. In summary, if the goal is truly worst-to-first, you probably want Edman as your shortstop given the current roster. Masyn tears it up in AAA again and is the shortstop starting in 2025. I am good putting Dylan in center field and letting him play. His track record is not great, but I see an athletic player with some pop who can ramp it up and is ready to do that.
But in full disclosure, I thought the same thing about O’Neill a few years ago and his 2021 was what I expected for a few years after that. Now I really don’t care what we do with him – he’s too fragile to be counted on every day.
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