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I’m not sure about trading edman but if he’s our best player, then getting any more pitching isn’t going to help us. In fact we probably shouldn’t have gotten gray.
I hope a 91 OPS+, 2.1 bWAR guy is not our best player. But in 2022 Edman was a 107 OPS+, 6.3 bWAR player. Everybody had a down year last year, and he will be 29, so he is right in prime time. Based upon that, it seems likely he will be among the small handful of best players in 2024.
If we are talking about win now in 2024, then it makes sense not to have Winn, who is strong negative WAR, at least for now, as a starter. It also doesn’t make sense to have Walker in RF where his negative defensive WAR cancels out his offense. Longer term considerations would be different, so it depends on how intent the org is about winning in 2024.
Hey, whatever happened to that thing people used to call Hot Stove? I never quite understood the term anyway but thought it might mean an extremely active off-season. Then again, perhaps I was wrong. In any case it seems to have been erased from this year’s lexicon.
The issue with Edman is he is most valuable as a 4-5 WAR shortstop, but the Cardinals are looking to put him at either 2B or CF, which greatly decreases his value. Likewise, we have alternatives that are very close in value to him at those positions.
This is all predicated on whether the Cardinals think Masyn Winn can be given (and handle) the SS position out of the gate in 2024.
I don’t really care if they trade him now that we have Gray, Lynn, and Gibson. He is a heckuva risk management option for the position players.
“Hot Stove” is still alive and kicking within baseball circles, Cardinal in France. It simply means a group of diehard baseball fans attired in winter jackets, caps, scarfs, earmuffs, long john’s, thick winter pants, 3 pairs of socks and boots, all huddled around a steaming hot stove in the dead of winter, in a unheated rustic cabin, intently discussing and debating what’s going on in the great game of baseball. It should also be noted that when many hours have passed and all are ready to go home, it is traditional to wrap matters up by everyone holding hands around the hot stove and singing “Chestnuts Roasting On An Open Fire”.
I’m trying to make Edman at SS work, as others have suggested, so who is the backup SS / utility infielder in this scenario?
Is it Winn? Or does “he needs to start somewhere” come into play?
Thanks Pugs. I see where I went wrong. I thought that because the FO and the owners, being the only ones who can actually do anything to heat up the stove, were responsible for the cool temperature. But it’s just a fan thing. Silly me.
With Edman and Donovan in STL and Winn in Memphis, your other infielders don’t have to be SS capable. Not having Winn in Stl doesn’t mean you have to be short an infielder. If you need to bring up Winn,then either send a guy down or not if Edman goes on the IL.
I feel like a broken record, because I am. But when the same things are said over and over, the same replies are warranted. Using 21-year-old players’ first partial MLB season as a reflection of their current and future value is absurd. They will play and when they do, they will improve.
P.S. Donovan is a great player to have on the roster, but he is an emergency MLB shortstop only. Rostering only the starting shortstop (who in this scenario is also likely your back up CF) and him is not nearly enough for one of the most important positions on the diamond. I highly doubt the Cardinals would leave themselves exposed like that and suspect they’ve not done it before.
If they believed that Winn is not ready to start, then he isn’t ready to fill in as the starter if Edman is hurt, either. In that scenario, they would get a veteran SS to be the reserve. (Not that I believe any of this is actually going to happen.)
Having Edman and Donovan on the bench allows a hitter-only type such as Baker or Burleson to make the team without playing outfield. We could carry four outfielders and an extra pitcher, also.
Winn can and will hit. He will start at shortstop and be an asset. He is not Pete Kozma, but we would be fine even if he did put up a Kozmaesque season next year.I think the expectation is that Winn will get substantially better since he hit well in Memphis. The expectation is Carlson will not get better and may well get worse since that is what he has done the last two years.
I agree, he will get better. But the minor leagues are to “develop” players so they can play in the major leagues.
Winn proved he is not ready. Anybody can see that.
As for Carlson, the two years he was not in Marmol’s doghouse, he put up 5 WAR. That is an “average” outfielder.
This past year, for whatever reason, he was in Marmol’s doghouse, and they decided to roll with an outfield that had Nootbaar in center, and Burleson and Walker in the corners for a few weeks. Then, when ERA’s exploded, they decided to blame the catcher. Then, Carlson busted his ankle.
I feel like a broken record, because I am. But when the same things are said over and over, the same replies are warranted. Using 21-year-old players’ first partial MLB season as a reflection of their current and future value is absurd. They will play and when they do, they will improve.
I feel like a broken record. Nobody is saying Winn won’t improve. Can we at least agree the minor leagues exist to develop players?
Did Winn prove he was ready to play at the major league level with his call up in 2023?
Winn’s carrying tool is his defense, right?
By OAA:
DeJong: +8 OAA | 77% Success Rate | 75% Estimated Success Rate | +2% Success Rate Added
Edman: +4 OAA | 79% Success Rate | 76% Estimated Success Rate | +3% Success Rate Added
Winn: -3 OAA | 69% Success Rate | 71% Estimated Success Rate | -2% Success Rate AddedNot only was Winn the worst hitting shortstop for the Cardinals last year, he was the worst fielding shortstop for the Cardinals last year.
I’m trying to make Edman at SS work, as others have suggested, so who is the backup SS / utility infielder in this scenario?
I think you have to sign somebody like Jose Iglesias on a one year deal and allow Winn to “develop” in the minor leagues.
Winn will be the shortstop on our club for quite a few years, and will likely be a very good one. It is a bit of a conundrum for the coming season, as management is in a panic and wants to put a veteran team out that will win now, but also keep a lot of the promising younger talent to hedge against being bad after next year.
It seems to me one of those plans where you try to be good at everything, but your resources are spread so thin you end up not being really good at anything. Sort of a “jack of all trades, but master of none” deal.
Pugs with a great description of “hot stove”. That is how I always understand the phrase – winter-time banter about the summer game around the hot stove. And to extend it a bit, every team has a chance to win the “hot stove league”. Every team can come up with a scenario where, “If we stay healthy and this guy comes along like we think he can, we can win this thing.” 🙂
1. Edman has proved he is a competent major league shortstop.
2. Winn is a youngster some hope will become a competent shortstop.
3. One can always discuss degrees of competence.
4. If/When Winn moves from 2), hope, to 1), proved, then discussions of competence/backup are more relevant.
5. I am much more concerned about our 2024 outfield.Right now, if you squint your eyes at this team I can see 78-82 wins (call it .500). Just a pure pull it out of my rear end number.
If Mo continues to make moves and say dramatically overhauls the bullpen and adds either a starting infielder OR outfielder (so as to prevent Edman from having to be counted on for both centerfield and shortstop) then my estimated win total would climb to the 87-89 total.
We have to climb out of the cellar and pass all 4 other NL Central teams this time so it’s not like even having finished a distant 2nd where you only had 1 team to reel in.
The rest of the winter should be real interesting as the Cards are likely to continue to be active in the player market.
Edman and Donovan are similar and if both are healthy, I wonder if we might move one in a deal for bullpen help.
Objectively, Tommy is not our best player, but certainly GC’s favorite player. It is a bit concerning that his WAR was 1/3 as much in 2023 as 2022, in about 100 less plate appearances. He was 27 in 2022, which is a real common age for player’s to peak.
He has an indication of being on the downward side of his career, but we don’t really know for sure. Trading him now might be the perfect time, but obviously you need good value in return as his versatility makes him more valuable than just the stat lines.
Brian Walton
I highly doubt the Cardinals would leave themselves exposed like that and suspect they’ve not done it before.
We haven’t been in this position before either, having not had a star SS prospect since Renteria. Renteria led to Eckstein, then Izturis, who was replaced with Brendan Ryan. Ryan fell out of favor for Furcal, who was replaced with Kozma. Kozma’s poor play led to Peralta, who overlapped with Aledmys Diaz. Then Diaz was replaced by DeJong and DeJong by Edman.
In my scenario, if they go with Edman at SS, and put Winn at AAA, they would probably get someone like Jose Rondon or Edmundo Sosa.
If they traded Edman, I think they would have to get a more capable backup for Winn. Someone like Elvis Andrus would be the thought.
It’s all for naught though. I only thought they would trade Edman as he would’ve been a valuable trade piece to upgrade the rotation, but that seems complete now.
In all likelihood, spring training will determine Masyn Winn’s roster prospects.
As for Carlson, the two years he was not in Marmol’s doghouse, he put up 5 WAR. That is an “average” outfielder.
I am not sure what two years you are talking about. In 2022 he had 488 PAs over 128 games. Appearing almost daily in RF until Bader went down, and thereafter in CF. He responded with a line of .236/.316/.380/.695. His BAs for the last three months, after Bader went down, were .231/.217/.189. It should also be noted that his platoon split vs righties for that year was .207/.294/.339/.633 for an sOPS+ of 81. So he was virtually unplayable vs righties.
My take is he was given a chance and failed to take advantage of it, so the org decided he was not an answer beyond CF coverage depth. His useage in 2023 reflected that decision. I do not see that as being in the dog house.
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