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Well, sure they are, but leadership is always at the center of the core and there isn’t any. I’ve seen enough to be convinced that no amount of pitching or anything else will allow them to win with this guy.
Spend money, spend money, spend money…. Sure let’s just stand back and throw money at the problem. Outbid all comers. Sarcasm, of course.
First of all, forget Ohtani because that isn’t happening. How about 34 year old Marcus Stroman? He’s having a fine year while he strives to earn his last big contract. Or, maybe 34 year old Sonny Gray. Yeah. Let’s give him everything he wants. Then, there’s the oft injured Blake Snell. Let’s lure him to St.Louis with a pot full of money. Aaron Nola. That’s it. Let’s break the bank on Aaron Nola. It will take breaking the bank to beat out the Phillies, Yankees, Dodgers, Padres, and some ‘sleeper’ team. And it’s debatable if he’s even worth what his asking price will be.Regarding MO…. He’s forever been drafting in the 18-22 slot. It would take blind luck to find a top of rotation pitcher that far down the board. So he took the best player available. Had he drafted mediocre pitchers instead of ‘best available’, we would be even worse off. I’m blaming this year on transitioning out of Yadi and Waino, and for not transitioning out of Flaherty sooner, not on MO.
Regarding WDWJr…… I’m guessing that he took out a 30 year note for about a half a billion dollars to build us a new stadium back in ’06. Since loans are interest heavy during the first several years, I’m guessing that he still owes 350M or so on the loan. In comparison, the Brewers are trying to shake a couple of hundred million dollars free from the Milwaukee taxpayers by threatening to move if the taxpayers don’t fork it over.
Finally, I’ll say that I am, at this point, clueless as to how the pitching problem will be improved over the offseason. But I don’t like the idea of throwing money around as the answer. Baseball revenue has to go down thanks to inflation. It now cost $40-$50 for two people to get out of even Applebees or Texas Roadhouse or Olive Garden nowadays. The money for baseball tickets is simply not going to be available because ‘the times, they are a changin’ as the lyric goes. The best thing that I can think to say is that we now have some fine young arms trying to break through their barriers to MLB.
I don’t expect us to challenge year though our division will still be rather weak so who knows. I don’t think spending lots of money on fifty fifty guys is the answer. But I don’t think marmol is the answer and I don’t think our general manager is the answer either so we may be out of it for a while.
Are there any Korean or Japanese starting pitchers becoming available this off-season? Maybe there’s a another Mikolas or Ohtani-light out there?
IMO the Cards will try and sign a middle of the road veteran for 8-10 million and roll with the kids.Unless they sign a tyler Mahle who is coming off TJ surgery and will miss most of 2024 and sign him to a cheap 2 year deal hoping he can maybe pitch in September 2024 and be nearly full strength 2025.I don`t see big FA money spent by the Cards.Trades or low cost arms.
mud said:
Finally, I’ll say that I am, at this point, clueless as to how the pitching problem will be improved over the offseason. But I don’t like the idea of throwing money around as the answer.
Agreed, but I didn’t see anyone suggesting free agency is the best plan. Even to trade for good pitchers, they are going to be more expensive, both in terms of players to get them and in salary to pay them.
Doing little and claiming austerity won’t cut it any more. If you can’t keep pace with the competition, you need to step up your game and the Cardinals have clearly fallen behind.
However they decide to do it, they are going to have to spend more money to get better. To think otherwise is unrealistic.
He’s forever been drafting in the 18-22 slot. It would take blind luck to find a top of rotation pitcher that far down the board. So he took the best player available. Had he drafted mediocre pitchers instead of ‘best available’, we would be even worse off.
I get tired of this crutch.
Let’s just look at the names listed in your posting:
Stroman – Round 1, pick 22
Sonny Gray – Round 1, pick 18
Blake Snell – Competitive Round A, pick 52
Aaron Nola – Round 1, Pick 7So, of the four pitchers you mentioned as typically unavailable to the Cardinals, three of them were in the range where they would typically be available to the Cardinals. The Cardinals just missed.
In 2021, the Cardinals chose Michael McGreevy in Round 1 with pick 18. The Guardians chose Gavin Williams in Round 1 with pick 23. Williams was the 6th ranked overall Top 100 prospect before he was promoted to the major league roster. If you read scouting reports at the time, McGreevy had control, Williams had two out pitches. Who had the higher ceiling?
The difference between last winter and this coming winter, is that the team now has failed to be ‘competative’. That was not the case last winter, and a failure to be competative this year was not anticipated. So there was no reason to spend.
I think that multiple pitchers will be acquired, but at the least there will be a front of rotation guy. Someone who can reasonably be expected to exceed Mikolas as to results. A dominant presence on the mound type. I think that guy will come via free agency. The reason is that it cannot be acquired with second tier trade goods, and I don’t think Mo will trade the good stuff.
Last winter, a starting catcher was perceived to be a must. Like a top pitcher is now. Yet Mo would not trade away the good stuff, and instead spent some money. I think the reason is the good stuff represents money that will not have to be spent hiring top end talent at markiet rate. That reason applies this winter as it did last winter.
Additional pitching, a mid/back rotation type who slots in after Mikolos, maybe a laundry list type, pen help, that can be obtained with second tier trade goods, and we have excess in both infield and outfield, so those type trades seem a sure thing.
I am less enthusiatic than some about offing Contreras. He is not great defensively, but I think the whole catchergate thing was amplified by general disfuncion coming out of spring training. General disfunction that was not his fault and shouldn’t have had to step into, especially replacing a legend. Plus, I am not as sold as some on Knizner and/or Herrera. Knizner is better defensivey, but not enough so to justify carrying a .215 bat in the lineup, which is what he hit last year, with more PAs than he will have this year. He could just as well do that next year as what he is doing this year. And Herrera may or may not be an MLB starting catcher. We don’t know. On top of that, I think the finger pointing ring leader amongst the starters is gone. So my gut tells me Contreras will remain, and probably be OK. That means Knizner or Herrera will go. I think Knizner will, as his performance has established some value, and he is further up the salary scale. Theoretically, Herrera may have some value by the time Bernal is ready to move up and may then follow Knizner out the door.
….. and his delight is to put a good team on the field every single season.
What’s a “good team”? St. Louis is pretty much a baseball/hockey town. Both have gotten the support of the city no matter come what may. IMO Dewitt has the responsibility of providing teams that are better than good, and sure that requires dough re mi. This team should be perennial competitors for the WS crown (ala LAD- ATL) and not a team that barely gets into the post-season and than exits early so that DeWitt can get some delight. He should be more focused on the team and show some pride. In St. Louis the owner should be more than business-oriented or sell the team to someone who is willing to provide more than a second tier organization.
A guy showing more interest in a Ballpark Village, which he sees as a money maker, and seemingly skimps on the real reason that its even viable smells like greed to me.
IMO the Cardinal Nation takes its baseball seriously…. maybe more than any other MLB team. If DeWitt doesn’t allow Mozeliak to get some premier pitching in the off-season, he doesn’t deserve the right to own this team. Oh yeah….. I’m pissed about the ’23 version of the Cardinals and it didn’t have to turn out this way. The reason it is a bust is DeWitt’s tight pockets and our GM that hasn’t used what money he is allowed, wisely.
I am of the opinion to beef up the bullpen. I like making it a 6 inning game. Not saying we don’t need starters, but you can get 3 or 4 relievers through both minor league, and MLB free agency. But we have to go on track records, and not projections like in the case of Verhagen.
I don’t think the Cardinals want that kind of manager. They had one with TLR and swung the needle in the opposite direction ever since.
I get the dissatisfaction with Marmol, but the core problems are much, much deeper as I see it…
This is what I have said 1000 times Brian but the “blame everything on Marmol crowd” doesn’t want to hear it.
THE CARDINAL FRONT OFFICE DOES NOT WANT A VETERAN MANAGER! We haven’t had one since 2011 so that should be obvious.
Are there any Korean or Japanese starting pitchers becoming available this off-season? Maybe there’s a another Mikolas or Ohtani-light out there?
Yes there is. This guy is supposedly the next big thing out of Japan.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=yamamo004yos
Yeah, it’s obvious, but I don’t have to like it…”I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take it anymore”…Haha!
He’s forever been drafting in the 18-22 slot. It would take blind luck to find a top of rotation pitcher that far down the board. So he took the best player available. Had he drafted mediocre pitchers instead of ‘best available’, we would be even worse off.
I get tired of this crutch.
I agree LA. The Dodgers draft near the bottom almost every year but yet have one of the best farm systems.
The Dodgers draft near the bottom almost every year but yet have one of the best farm systems.
Exactly.
Everyone says BDW should spend more money. Is that really the answer?
The Mets went crazy last off season and they’re in last place, 13 games under .500. The Padres have opened up a big pocket book and they’re 5 games under .500. It’s not how much you spend, it how smart you spend. Look at the Rays.LA – I’d trade for starters from our excess of middle infielders and outfielders, and sign several free agent pitchers to 1-2 year contracts.
Who, specifically, would you trade and who would you hope to get back?
Which free agent pitchers do you think you’d be able to sign to 1-2 year contracts, and how much do you think those contracts would be?
Bonus question: How good would you expect the Cardinals to be given who you’ve traded and acquired?
None of the good starters will sign for 1-2 years. A guy trying to come back or prove he can still pitch maybe. We had to go more years than that to get Mikolas and Matz.
The thing to remember is a lot of teams wil be competing for FA pitching and for any that are available by trade. Our offer has to not only be fair, it has to be better than everyone else’s.
I have to agree with BW on this one 1TD. Marmol, while not the smartest guy in the managerial ranks, is not the problem. He saw what happened to Shildt when he bucked Mozeliaks “Sabermetric System” and he would like to keep his job. THere is no other explanation for why he still has a job except he is doing EXACTLY what Mozeliak instructs him to do every game.
None of the veteran managers that you mentioned would be Mozeliak’s “lap dog” and thus Mo will not hire one of those types. Our only hope out of this is for BDW Jr. to wisen up and get rid of MO or not extend his contract when it is up after 2024!
I am less enthusiatic than some about offing Contreras. He is not great defensively, but I think the whole catchergate thing was amplified by general disfuncion coming out of spring training. General disfunction that was not his fault and shouldn’t have had to step into, especially replacing a legend. Plus, I am not as sold as some on Knizner and/or Herrera. Knizner is better defensivey, but not enough so to justify carrying a .215 bat in the lineup, which is what he hit last year, with more PAs than he will have this year. He could just as well do that next year as what he is doing this year. And Herrera may or may not be an MLB starting catcher. We don’t know. On top of that, I think the finger pointing ring leader amongst the starters is gone. So my gut tells me Contreras will remain, and probably be OK. That means Knizner or Herrera will go. I think Knizner will, as his performance has established some value, and he is further up the salary scale. Theoretically, Herrera may have some value by the time Bernal is ready to move up and may then follow Knizner out the door.
I agree BB! The Contreras naysayers will not look at the overall picture of what Contreras brings to this team. They pick and choose which “sabermetric” that will back up their argument yet they ignore all others.
While I am not a real analytics type of guy, I can look up the stats on the Baseball Reference website. This site shows that Contreras is #4 on the Cardinals in WAR and none of the other catchers crack the top 12 on the Cardinals. It also shows that Contreras is better offensively than all of the others. As for the defensive categories, Contreras and Knizner seem to be neck and neck in most of them with each one being slightly better than the other depending on which category you select. The difference however is very marginal in these categories with one major exception. Contreras has a 27% Caught Stealing rate while Knizner’s is only 8% (the league average is 20% of which Contreras is better than). Lest one says that Contreras has had more opportunities, the number is only 8 more stolen base attempts against Contreras than Knizner (C = 12 out of 44 vs K = 3 out of 36)
As for pitch framing, how can we really use that as a stat when in reality it comes down to the Umps being terrible at strike calling. Pitch framing means the umps are watching the catchers glove more than they are the ball and where it crosses the plate. Once we get the “robo-umps” this stat will be gone! I can’t wait!
LA – Those are extremely complicated questions. As far as trading for starters, who knows among the 30 teams which starters are available? I would, however, look at low budget teams who have starters that are in the arbitration years, and getting more expensive. Whom would I trade? I’d consider O’Neill, Donovan, Carlson, Herrera (unfortunately), Burleson, Gomez, Yepez, Baker, Dunn,
Antico, etc.bccran asked:
Everyone says BDW should spend more money. Is that really the answer?
If everyone says it, there must be something to it… 😉
The word MORE is relative. Should they spend MORE than the Mets? Of course not! That is the most extreme example possible. How about this? Should they spend MORE than the #16 ranking? Yes, if they want to keep up.
But if the goal is to rake in as much money as possible, maybe not. Then again when you have more money than you can possibly spend, why let your spending lag and your product on the field suffer?
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