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Realistically, Arenado or Grsy aren’t getting traded. No one wants a $35mill contract. And Grays results aren’t worth it. Arenado might be more tradeable, but his production has dipped badly. Couple that with the Cards reluctance to eat salary.
I’m not sure how much interest the Dodgers have in Arenado. They have a $10M option on Muncy.
I agree I think their interest in Arenado wouldn’t be high, but a guideline of how they are going to have to get things done if they want to move some of these contracts and start over. I think Gray is very tradable, but the Cardinals are going to have to eat around $15-20 million to make him tradable. 1 year of Gray at $20-25 million is tradable, but hes owed $35 and a $5million buy out. So you eat it, or find someone needing catching help and tack Pages with him and probably still have to eat the $5 million buy out.
The benefits that I read into a trade of Arenado and Gray are
that, regarding Arenado, it allows either Donovan or Wetherholt more innings at third base, and regarding Gray, I’m thinking we might be able to get a promising prospect for him in a trade. His pitching this year has been little more than a number 3 or 4 pitcher in the rotation. I feel confident that the Cardinals would have to eat a substantial amount of $$ in order to move him. Going back to my thoughts about third base, I just don’t know if Wetherholt’s defense is the kind of defense I want to see at third base. I do feel like he could handle second base, and I do think that Donovan has already proven himself as a defensive replacement for just about any position. I’m rambling a bit here. So I might as well bring up Saggese. This kid has always hit well and there’s little reason to think that he has reached his ceiling as a major league hitter. I’ll just add two more comments. First, I see Gorman as trade bait. Second, I sure hate to see Arenado go although letting him move on does seem to make sense. Love his defense. Hope he wears a Cardinals cap into the HOF.I don’t see the benefit of trading Gray. We need starting pitching in the worst way. If we trade Gray, we have a disaster of a starting staff and no depth for any injuries. We won’t save money because we will probably have to send money with him to get anything of value in return. Then we have to pick up a starting pitcher to replace him.
Thanks. Your argument is as logical as can be. And you might add ‘beggars can’t be choosers’ onto it. Personally, I get annoyed at watching what has become a mediocre pitcher out there on the mound getting paid $30 million dollars. It’s just a personal gripe. That’s all.
If we trade Gray, we have a disaster of a starting staff and no depth
The rotation will probably be a disaster with no depth whether we trade Gray or not. Its also worth remembering he will turn 36 in a few weeks and starters don’t last forever.
Bling, are you saying that we should trade Gray?
If so, who do we start in his place from the pitchers we currently have? What is the likelihood that his replacement pitches anywhere close to as good as Gray did in 2025?
The performance of the club only matters to the fans. We just endured Fedde, Mikolas and Pallante and a 40+ mil budget cut. Start anyone in their places, while we wait on the next Pujols.
We don’t need to move Arenado to open up 3B for Donovan or Wetherholt. Donovan is likely to be traded and Wetherholt is most likely our opening day 2B.
Trading Gray might bring back a prospect but only after we eat half of his remaining salary. Unless we are fine with winning 60 games in 2026 then that makes no sense. Yes Gray will be 36 but he is only under contract for one more year so his age doesn’t bother me. Oh and he is still our best starter.
Bling, are you saying that we should trade Gray?
It just depends on the return. The state of the 2026 rotation is not the most important consideration.
As we all know, our FO doesn’t eat salary. Contreras, Gray, and Arenado are all likely staying put. Does Contreras have a NTC clause too?
Does Contreras have a NTC clause too?
Yes he does but they wouldn’t have to eat much to move him, unlike the other two.
Bling, just to be clear, you are OK with the Cardinals winning only 60-70 games in 2026? That is what they are looking at without Gray.
They aren’t going to get a major league ready starting pitcher for him. If the replacement is internal, he would be lucky to give the Cardinals much more than a .500 record in games he started. In Gray’s starts, the Cardinals were 21-11 this year.
Bill likes to keep appearances up, at least until the deadline. Gray and Contreras help sell the team. Both may be on the pocket schedule 😀
If the replacement is internal, he would be lucky to give the Cardinals much more than a .500 record in games he started. In Gray’s starts, the Cardinals were 21-11 this year.
Forsch, I agree with this. Instead of 21-11 in 32 games we would probably be about 16-16, a reduction of 5 wins. Overlaying that on this year’s record, that would be 73 wins instead of 78 wins. Yes, I am OK with that if there is a decent return that will hopefully help going forward.
Y’all are being too generous with the
.500 projection for Gray’s replacement. The Cards went 31-51 in games started by Miles Mikolas, Andre Pallante and Erick Fedde this year. That is more what we’re looking at for a replacement. So that 78 wins becomes 69 wins. With the downturn in the lineup from trades, the net loss for other starters could put us in 100 loss territory. I’m personally not OK with that if the only payoff is to Bill’s wallet. There’s no reason the Cards couldn’t smartly wade into beneficial trades and free agency and end up with a semi competitive team without killing the future.25, that is why I said he would be lucky to give the Cardinals much more than a.500 record in his starts. Winning half of his starts would be the top end of expected results. Winning more than half would be luck. Realistic expectations would be about a third. That means a drop off of 10 wins and a 68-94 record.
Let Sonny rest up and have a good first half, much like 2025, then dump him at the deadline is what the wonk dept. should see.
His 2nd half of 25′ included a .503 slg% allowed, and a 1.459 whip in 13 GS. There are red flags in keeping him.That’s generally good math, forsch. I guess unless Gray is absolutely certain he wants out, I don’t see how the team and fan base wouldn’t benefit from keeping him, saving a few bucks by trading Arenado and possibly Nootbaar or Donovan and then spending the cash to upgrade the rotation a little bit. Maybe I’m totally off base, but there would have to be decent mid rotation options on the market that could be had on one or two year deals that wouldn’t break the bank or crush the future development pipeline. Donovan probably brings back a mid rotation guy on his own. Noot could bring a back of the rotation guy. Decide on the one you feel best about and go for it. Grab a RH OF bat, find a starter and a Maton like bullpen arm and move on from there with the payroll somewhere between 2024 and 2025 status.
For a hypothetical:
Lineup of Crooks/Herrera, Contreras, Wetherholt, Winn, Saggese/Gorman, Noot, Scott, Walker/Rob Refsynder (1 yr/$5M), Burleson
Staff of Gray, Shane Bieber (2 yr/$40M), Bryce Miller (Donovan trade), Liberatore, McGeeevy
That team, on paper, would at least be more competitive than this year’s outfit.
An outfield that includes both Burleson and Walker is the same disaster we’ve been trying for three years.
Walker needs to be demoted to AAA.
Burleson needs to be strictly a 1B/DH.
Ideally, you would trade Contreras and then sign Bader (LF) and Yazstremski (RF) on one year deals with the money saved, move Burleson to 1B. You probably gain 5-6 WAR in the OF, and have two more trade chips for the trade deadline.
Then trade Donovan + Crooks for cost-controlled pitching.
I agree with jj – the best time to trade Gray will be at the deadline. You won’t have to eat as much (possibly not any) money, get two-thirds of a season of use out of him.
If things go right, you have a legitimate playoff team. If they don’t, you have four trade chips at the deadline instead of two.
jj, 25, and LA, I think we are all on the same page. This team CAN compete/improve in 2026 with basically the same, or slightly higher, payroll. It needs to make smart, shrewd decisions that are not 100% based on payroll and the future. They can have a low payroll, compete, and build for the future all at the same time.
A deadline trade of Gray gives him four more months of what he built when he signed here.
If we are sellers, he could look for a postseason team and be a rental before free agency. Postseason success sure wouldn’t hurt his platform season.Well I am definitely NOT in favor of constructing a 60 to 70 win team because it is totally unnecessary. There is no reason this team can’t rebuild without tanking. It will be disgraceful if we go into Pirate mode.
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