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If the White Sox would do that, it would be a good trade. I would even go with a prospect a little better than Mejia, if needed.
My first trade offer involving O’Neill would be O’Neill + Gallegos for a reliever. The reason is, I want to clear that $11 million from the payroll to afford to backfill trades of O’Neill & Carlson.
So, O’Neill + Gallegos = 10.40 BTV / $11.1 million
I would shop that deal to three teams:
Detroit:
Tyler Holton (LHRP): Career 2.19 ERA/94.1 IP | 2023: 2.11 ERA/85.1 IP | BTV = 5.0 | Salary = $770k
Jason Foley (RHRP): Career 3.16 ERA/139.2 IP | 2023: 2.61 ERA/69.0 IP | BTV = 11.8 | Salary = $770k
Will Vest (RHRP): Career 4.18 ERA/146.1 IP | 2023: 2.98 ERA/48.1 IP | BTV = 9.9 | Salary = $770KChicago White Sox:
Gregory Santos: Career 4.0 ERA/72.0 IP | 2023: 3.39 ERA/66.1 IP | BTV = 7.8 | Salary = $770kWashington Nationals:
Hunter Harvey: Career 2.84 ERA/123.2 IP | 2023: 2.82 ERA/60.2 IP | BTV = 9.0 | Salary = $2.7 million (est)I would be willing to include John King (BTV = 3.4 / salary = est. $1.3 million) and/or Cesar Prieto to clear the money off the books.
The reason it is so important to clear salary is that if you trade both O’Neill & Carlson, you really need to fill 3 positions:
LF: Lourdes Gurriel, Jr (MLBTR predicts 4 years / $52 million)
CF: Adam Duvall (signed for $7 million last year)
SS: Jose Iglesias (signed for $5 million last year)Cardinals could then trade Steve Matz to save an additional $12 million & possibly Willson Contreras to save an additional $18 million (if traded to the Yankees). Trade both of them, you might actually reduce the payroll.
The Orioles are looking for a closer to fill the gap until Bautista is back.
The Cardinals having had 28 blown saves, I hope the Orioles aren’t the only ones looking for a closer. One who can stay on the field rather than the IL, and not walk guys in the 9th.
LA, it appears that the Cardinals are planning to keep Carlson as of now. Of course plans can change.
Robert Stephenson might be a good bullpen piece for the Cardinals. He had a very good 2023 and shouldn’t break the bank.
GS, Stephenson has a good 50-ish IP trend over 2021-2023. Outstanding platform season for the FA.
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as a framework:
(FLA) Alacantra & T. Scott
for
Contreras (and cash?)We get closer Scott in 2024, and Sandy in 25′ and 26′, with a 2027 option.
It proposes FLA converts Alcantara’s salary to their lineup this season, and expects that they will have adequate SP depth for 2025 to move on from him in trade. Their pen was very good and possibly they’d make co-closer Scott available.
Contreras helps backfill the loss of DH Soler, and FLA has no starter at catcher today. The two year Stallings signing failed, and is over.
At this point the BTV values are all jacked up, probably due to Alcantara due to miss 2024. I’d think STL is short on value received for 2024.
2025 and beyond it’s Contreras value vs Alcantara value, with salaries within 1mil annually. Hmmm
FLA Tanner Scott
for
O’NeillI could definitely get on board for that. The salaries line up and the needs line up.
I was really hoping the Cardinals would find a way to play facilitator in the Padres-Yankees deal for Soto.
Trade Matz + one of the Memphis starting pitchers to San Diego
Send Contreras to the YankeesGet back Vasquez, Hamilton, Sweeney and a catcher, save $30 million.
Could Tanner Scott’s stat line for 2023 be an outlier? His WHIP prior to 2023 hovered around 1.6 and his ERA averaged about 5.00.
I see the concern Muds, Tanner Scott just finished a career year.
“prior to 2023…”
Tanner debuted as a 22 yr old, he will turn 30 in July of next season. He’s a FA-to-be after next season.To entertain your concerns I will look back two seasons, even though he has just 1yr of control remaining, but no more. I simply don’t care what he did 3 or more seasons ago. 2023 is the most relevant season to his and all players 2024.
“His WHIP hovered around 1.600”
Correct, 1.564 prior to 2023. His past two seasons WHIP is 1.265 and that includes his 2022 with a BB% 15.9, which he cut in half in 2023 (7.8%).Tanners H/9 prior to 2023 is 8.9, while the last two seasons it has been 6.9 (H/9). Hits are down, walks are down, so the WHIP came down, over his last 140 IP (2022-2023).
“and his ERA averaged about 5.00”.
Correct, prior to 2023 it is 4.65. Past two seasons it is 3.20 over 140 IP, which is two workhorse seasons for a reliever.I’d caution about using his early developmental yrs at mlb, as an indicator of his 2024, especially when we target a one year rental.
I like to think Scott has refined his command (BB%), is throwing 70% first strikes and has a put away slider going into 2024.
Kimbrel signs for 1/13mil with BAL.
Will our relievers pursuit include saves? Blown Saves are a substantial weakness from 2023, that remains unaddressed.
$13M for Kimbrel. He hasn’t been really great since 2018 when he had 42 saves. $13M….
Regarding Tanner Scott…. I’d just like to know what caused his apparent breakout in 2023 before spending trade chips and cash on him for 2024. New coach? Some kind of personal epiphany that affected his approach to his work? Found a new technique? Certainly not PED’s. So what caused the breakout and can he carry it forward? His stats prior to 2023 were not impressive.
Blown Saves are a substantial weakness from 2023
The Cardinals had 28 blown saves out of 64 save chances, for a success rate of 56%
The Rangers had 33 blown saves out of 63 save chances, for a success rate of 48%, tied for worst in MLB.What do we make of that?
Rangers run scored/allowed 881/716 ERA 4.28 WHIP 1.268
Cards run scored/allowed 719/829 ERA 4.79 WHIP 1.456
Their pitching overall was better.
Adding Chapman and Stratton helped, after they backed off on using Will Smith. Once they told LeClerc you’re him, they were winging it. It worked, but they were scrambling. Adding Dunning and Gray to the postseason pen helped late.
It’s reported WS asking for a bunch of prospects for Dylan Cease from the Reds. For the Cardinals to match that you would have to give Hence Roby Saggesse and a couple lower prospects. Hard pass. Bolster the pen as best you can and roll it out. Im ready for spring training. It doesn’t matter who you add at this point. They won’t make you ws champion. This team as is has to jell. If the bad taste of last year has guys determined and hungry we will be good enough to make a trade deadline move to bolster our playoff chances.
We don’t need to clean out the prospects for pen help but I would consider every reasonable option possible to get Cease, depending on how you define reasonable. He would make our rotation much more legit. Cease, Gray, Mikolas, Gibson, and Lynn would put us in the conversation to win the division.
Someone of the Braves, Orioles, Dodgers, Reds or other will get a deal done with the Sox. I hope it is the Cardinals but a more likely scenario is that we get two relievers and call it a day.
FYI here,
According to a report in Los Angeles……Ohtani has signed with the Toronto Blue Jays.
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