Trade Ideas/Acquisition Ideas/Non-Cards Rumors – 2019-2020

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Viewing 25 posts - 1,801 through 1,825 (of 1,983 total)
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  • #134104
    thejagerthejager
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    So the offense is looking like what we all worried it would look like. with the season so short, if moves are going to happen they need to happen quick. the leash on some of these guys in a truncated season has to be shorter.

    I was ok with giving some of the kids and vets some time to work it out over the course of the year, but in a season like this there just isnt time.

    I am not saying pull the plug on everyone not hitting right now, but some guys havent been hitting for longer than the past week.

    Yadi = fine
    Goldy = fine
    DeJong = fine
    Edman = fine (but at what position?)
    ONeill = seems fine so far, has the strength to make mistakes into runs, solid d
    Fowler = seems fine so far, most of the ABs look stronger, play him

    Wong = not great so far, but his glove is dynamic, IF you can fix other spots in the lineup he is fine

    Carp = sorry, his bat looks slower than ever and his inspired play against his own teammates just isn’t enough for me to see him flail away, to me he has to be a bench player at best, maybe rotational DH. But he was supposed to be a power hitter to help provide runs, he is not doing that

    Bader = like everyone says, love the defense, bat is not there

    —–
    luckily we have Carlson ready to step in, but we CANT put all the offense woes on him, we did that with Colby and it did not work out, we did it with Oscar too and despite his early passing he wasn’t ready when they brought him up early to shoulder that

    Still Carlson is a step in the right direction, combined with Lane Thomas that should provide whatever the OF is missing when it comes to production…all internal…great

    But the Carpenter hole is very problematic, we don’t have anything that is imposing like what he was supposed to bring to the offense, which is why we need to move now on a trade to find the answer. And we all know what the answer really is, it is Arenado.

    He is expensive, but he checks every single box you want to check. With his type of profile and performance he not only makes the lineup better, but makes the other players better by his ability being leaned on instead of younger players or struggling ones. Arenado’s presence makes Goldy and DeJong better by protection, the defense better in general, Carlson or even Bader and Wong better as their offense production becomes less important.

    Yes he will require an investment, but isnt he WHO you invest in? If we wait until they are older (Goldy) you get late prime and down years (Goldy). Why not pay the big contract but get the best years?

    So what if he gets in the way of Gorman or whomever? Use their value to acquire other things of importance. So what if we lose a good SP, we churn them out year after year, and we are already having a hard time giving them innings.

    If you add Carlson and Arenado to our lineup, the team’s offense will get better, and so will the defense. also the pitchers will have a bit more leeway as the offensive uptick will put less stress on them to throw perfect games for the low scoring offenses behind them.

    In a weird season like this i have no idea what it will take to acquire him, but I’d have to think shaving money is on every GM and owners mind.

    To me this reads like an opportunity to invest, buy low. Take on a bit more money because in the long run it will benefit you, and by taking a bit more money you can probably shave the prospect price dramatically.

    Edman (DH)
    Carlson (CF)
    DeJong (SS)
    Arenado (3b)
    Goldy (1b)
    Yadi (C)
    Oneill/Thomas (LF)
    Fowler/Thomas (RF)
    Wong (2b)

    Carp, Wieters, Bader, Knizner/Sosa/Dean/Ravelo, Thomas/Fowler

    That is a pretty imposing lineup, and possibly the best defensive team in baseball at least the infield. The power in the middle (Carlson,DeJong,Arenado,Goldy) and speed at the end and beginning is a perfect combination (Oneill,Thomas, Wong, Edman, Carlson)

    It was obvious before the season the offense had glaring problems if some of last season did not repeat itself (Wong) or DID repeat itself (Carp, Bader).

    We are lucky that we have a good internal option to help, but the BIG hole is one we have known for years we need to address, but continually refuse to address, it is only heightened in a short season and with the addition of the DH.

    So what does it take?
    Gorman and 3/4 contract? with a waiving by Arenado of the opt out?

    #134116
    Avatarmudville
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I don’t know who the Cardinals would give up for Arenado, but I can name a few places where the money could come from.
    1. Include Carpenter in the deal. Saves $18.5M.
    2. Don’t pick up Wong’s option. Saves $12.5M. I’d hate to give up Wong. But if Edman shows he’s worthy of taking over 2B, it might make sense because Edman will probably take over 2B anyway when Wong hits agency.
    3. Reduced salary for Molina, or Yadi leaves as a free agent. Saves $10-$20M.
    This takes care of 2020, and no Carpenter or Fowler in 2021 takes care of 2021. After that, the FO will have to figure something out.
    I think the Cardinals have an advantage in a trade for Arenado. For one thing, Arenado likes St. Louis and wants to be on a winner. There aren’t many teams that you can say that about. Second, although St. Louis is not a big, wealthy market, the Cardinals’ finances are likely better than many other teams, so you have to think that they could make a respectable offer. Third, Arenado has that opt out clause. Given the current climate, it seems unlikely that he would exercise it. Still, that opt out clause would certainly have to lower the asking price for Arenado. Fourth, the Rockies supposedly want pitching and a catcher. St. Louis matches up with them pretty well on that. Fifth, the Rockies no more want to pay Arenado $35M than they wanted to pay Tulowitski big money when Tulo got into the really expensive years of his contract.
    It seems like the most likely obstacle to a trade would be that the Cardinals just can’t stomach taking on the massive, long term contract that comes with Arenado. IMO, you really can’t fault them for that. After all, the track record for such contracts is dismal. Almost every team that takes one of those on lives to regret it.
    Still, Arenado on third base in St. Louis would be a whole lot of fun.

    #134119
    Avatarmspaid
    Participant

    Free

    It’s time to stop dinking arounbd. No more tweaking and we’ll play these kids and see if they’re superstars. Most prospects flop so, if you want to build a solid team then…it’s BLOCKBUSTER TIME!

    We have to get rid of dead weight and fill the space with all-star talent. Now, it will cost money and prospects but that’s the only way to win the WS.
    Cardinals send Carpenter, Fowler, Bader, Gorman, Hudson, Reyes and Cabrerra to the Rockies for Arenado and Blackmon. Arenado must wave his opt out clause at the time of the deal

    Line-up
    Blackmon 8
    Edman DH
    Arenado 5
    Goldschmidt 3
    DeJong 6
    O’Neill 7
    Thomas 9
    Molina 2
    Wong 4

    Rotation
    Flaherty
    Wainwright
    PDL
    Martinez
    Gomber

    Bullpen
    Good

    Now we can play baseball.

    #134122
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Nice post Jag. Count me as one who believes Arenado actually has surplus value beyond his contract. I’ll say +10mil, and you have COL buying down Arenado by roughly 50mil.

    An equal value trade would have us sending 60mil trade value to COL. I think that’s Gorman (35mil) and Hudson (25mil) by my back of envelope doodling.

    Arenado / 50mil
    for
    Gorman / Hudson

    There are desperation, shed salary, unhappy camper scenarios; but this above is as an equal value trade. And I’m in. I see both clubs achieving their goals.

    #134128
    stlcard25stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Arenado career at Coors: .324/.380/.615
    Arenado career on road: .265/.323/.474

    Could be buying another Ozuna there. That’s what worries me. His defense will more than play at the hot corner for a few years, to be sure. But we’ve seen it with many who leave Coors. Some even who leave Arizona, like Goldy. But then again there’s LeMahieu who has been excellent when he left, and Fowler has been better since he left Coors.

    Another one commented on…

    Blackmon at Coors: .347/.409/.570
    Blackmon on road: .261/.313/.429

    #134255
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    It’s a definite concern 25. I remember having this same discussion about Matt Holliday. Matt’s home / road split was .268 difference, as a Rocky, Arenado’s is .197

    As you know, when we use ops+, the ops difference looks less glaring. Still there, no doubt, can’t hide Coors Field numbers. Matt’s ops was .936 as a Rocky (131 ops+) and .874 as a Cardinal (138 ops+).

    My theory is it’s harder to adjust to breaking pitches while players are Rockies. On the road they seem more drastic, but once players have a different home field than Coors, they are used to similar breaking stuff all season. They lose the huge thin air effect of Coors, but gain back SOME ops in the road numbers, due to pitch normalcy all season.

    Matt actually fits this model. His first 5 seasons (age 24-28) as a Rocky on the road, he posted a .803 ops and the next 5 seasons a .865. He still lost some of the Coors bloated ops numbers, which I would expect Arenado to do also.

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 3 weeks ago by jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl.
    #134782
    Avatargscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Since we have no games to talk about and constantly discussing covid is no fun how about to lighten the mood a couple of trade ideas for this upcoming winter that would probably never happen?

    Carpenter and Fowler to the Angels for Pujols?
    None of the three players are that effective any longer but the salaries swapped would be close to even. Fowler gets reunited with Joe Maddon, Carp could play everyday for the Angels, and the Cardinals would get a PR boost for Albert spending his final year as the Cardinal DH, assuming the DH is here in 2021. There are NTC’s and PSC’s to work around but it might work.

    CMart, Montero, Gomber, and Gant to Cleveland for Lindor?
    Cardinals would be trading several years of control for one year of Lindor but Cleveland will have a high asking price on him and we might still be able to sign him long term.

    2B Wong
    LF Edman
    SS Lindor
    1B Goldschmidt
    3B DeJong
    RF Carlson
    DH Pujols
    C Molina
    CF Bader

    #134788
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    The post you put on another thread about more players potentially opting out later this season got me thinking how it could freeze the trade market during the remainder of this season. If I am a team looking to acquire an important player for the final push, I am going to want to know the player will remain and not opt out the day after I acquire him.

    Would any player provide that kind of assurance that he would stay through October given all of the uncertainties with the virus? Would any team risk acquiring a player without such an assurance?

    #134805
    Avatargscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Those are certainly valid concerns for the August 31 trade deadline, although contending teams trying to acquire a player might have an advantage since you would assume players would be less likely to opt for a team capable of making a deep playoff run.

    To clarify my two trade proposals above would be for the upcoming offseason, not this season.

    #134809
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    The virus is an unknown. An outbreak at any time could cause a guy who had no plans to opt out to change his mind. I’d be worried about that possibility if I acquired a guy I did not know.

    I did understand your post was on a different subject and time frame. I am not looking that far ahead, but others certainly may want to engage.

    #134893
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Hard pass on the Pujols trade GS. Carpenter would by my pick of those three players who could have an all-star season in 2021. Huge longshot, but with Pujols and Fowler I can’t imagine that level of production ever again. The trade would clear RF for you know who, but we could do that internally too, for 2021.

    #134894
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    For me, a Pujols trade would reek of the Cardinals trying to buy back his Hall of Fame allegiance. Let the past stay in the past, is my take. It was exceptional enough to stand on its own.

    #134911
    Avatargscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    To be candid, I have no real desire to bring Pujols back. I was just trying to think of a team that would take Fowler and Carpenter off of our hands. That was the only scenario I could come up with without us eating most of their contracts.

    #134916
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    OK, with the general target being aging players with big contracts, how about Miguel Cabrera in Detroit?

    Here is his deal, per Cots:

    8 years/$248M (2016-23), plus 2024-25 options
    16-17:$28M annually, 18-21:$30M annually, 22-23:$32M annually, 24:$30M club option ($8M buyout), 25:$30M club option

    The math says he is still owed $102MM after this season. The Tigers would have to eat a fair amount of that, I imagine.

    My take in this kind of trade is you are just shuffling risk. May as well ride out the bad contracts you already have…

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by Brian WaltonBrian Walton.
    #134925
    Avatargscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    To me the Pujols deal works better than Cabrera because Pujols only has one year left whereas Cabrera has three full years plus two option payments left.

    The advantages for the Cardinals in the Fowler + Carp for Pujols deal are:

    1. Save $5M in salaries for 2021. Carp + Fowler = $35M. Pujols = $30M

    2. Perhaps sell more jerseys and a few more tickets in 2021 coming off of a covid ravaged season where teams will be looking for all the revenue they can get.

    3. Clears two spots in the field for younger and perhaps more deserving players.

    #134928
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    From a money perspective, your deal makes more sense. From a results perspective, however, it is bad. The Cardinals would be taking on an offensive liability, worse than the two leaving.

    1) The last time Pujols had an OPS+ of 100 or more (MLB average) was in 2016.

    2) In two of the last three seasons, Pujols’ OPS+ was LOWER than Fowler’s.

    3) In two of the last three seasons, Pujols’ OPS+ was LOWER than Carpenter’s. Those two years, Carpenter’s was way more – 40 points and 52 points, respectively. The other year, they were just two points apart.

    4) Carpenter still has future upside potential. Pujols clearly does not. To win a trade, you need to get the best player. That would not be the case here.

    Sorry, but the nostalgia trip just wouldn’t be worth it.

    P.S. Reference data:
    Pujols: 80, 91, 93
    Fowler: 122, 59. 98
    Carp: 120, 143, 91

    #134933
    Avatargscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Well if nothing else we got to spend a few minutes discussing something other than our covid debacle. :o)

    #134935
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    A player I’m watching as a possible future trade target is Juan Segura. He’s owed 2/28.5mil for 2021 and 2022, with a 1mil buyout on a 17mil 2023 club option. (Edited yrs)

    Philly signed SS Gregorius on a 1/14mil deal for just 2020, which displaced Segura to 3B, and it’s not going well for Segura early on.

    We have 1/16.5mil left on Fowler and 1/18.5mil on Carpenter with a 2mil buyout on 2022, if his PA’s aren’t met.

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl.
    #134942
    Avatargscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Jean Segura is a nice player but I am not sure what position he would play for the Cardinals in 2021. We have DeJong at SS and Carp/Edman are both under contract next year for 3B. Someone would have to leave in order to accommodate Segura’s $14.5M salary also. The Cardinals are already looking at close to a $160M payroll for next year and even that number probably makes them queasy considering the revenue uncertainty of these times.

    #134945
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    If we use the next winter mutual dump scenario you introduced above, Carp for Segura would be on the table, although 2020 needs to play out and evaluate at seasons end. DeJong to 3B, Segura at SS, Edman as the super-sub.

    Their 2019’s are very similar, 91 and 92 ops+, but Segura also brings D and baserunning. Maybe Philly has plans for Segura at SS after Gregorius, or maybe they extend Didi…. Watch List

    #134946
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    gscottar said:

    Well if nothing else we got to spend a few minutes discussing something other than our covid debacle. :o)

    How right you are! As MM3 noted earlier, I am COVID-cranky… I can only imagine how the Cardinals players are feeling about now…

    #134967
    Avatargscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    If we use the next winter mutual dump scenario you introduced above, Carp for Segura would be on the table, although 2020 needs to play out and evaluate at seasons end. DeJong to 3B, Segura at SS, Edman as the super-sub.

    Their 2019’s are very similar, 91 and 92 ops+, but Segura also brings D and baserunning. Maybe Philly has plans for Segura at SS after Gregorius, or maybe they extend Didi…. Watch List

    If the Phillies would have any interest in Carp I would go for that deal but I am not sure they would. If we were looking to upgrade the infield I would shoot higher and go after Lindor.

    #135000
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Right, but Lindor is no mutual dump. CLE will probably want and get young controllable players and prospects. I was just following your scenario above, trying to move Carp. If Carp finds his OBP / SLG, no way Segura’s well rounded tools could match Carps value. If they both stay in the 90 ops+ range I’d prefer Segura.

    I would prefer Arenado over Lindor if we’ve gone from watch list to wish list 🙂 Of course Arenado may like it there now that COL is winning, but I’d agree he and his GM probably have burnt a bridge. If winning cures everything, Arenado may stay in COL, depending on the Rockies 2020 success. Wish List

    Estimate Lindors Arb3 for me and ballpark how we fit that salary in the 2021 team payroll plz.

    #135002
    Avatargscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Estimate Lindors Arb3 for me and ballpark how we fit that salary in the 2021 team payroll plz.

    I would say Lindor’s Arb3 salary will be in the neighborhood of $20M. Could be a little higher but with the depletion of revenue due to covid it is hard to say. In my trade scenario listed earlier in this thread of sending them CMart, Montero, Gomber, and Gant, those four salaries combined would be worth at least $15M so the total would be a net payroll gain of $5M.

    If we did the Fowler+Carp for Pujols deal, which would be a $5M savings, then both deals combined would be a net wash and the Cardinals would be a better team on the field in my opinion.

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by Avatargscottar.
    #135005
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    If Lindor gets +7mil as he did from arb1 to arb2, he’s ~25mil as an arb3. The problem I see with a Lindor trade is we’re not the deep pocket Dodgers. I’d expect the reverse of the Betts trade.

    I don’t see CLE wanting to take on salary, or, a very minimal; and they don’t have a David Price they’re trying to dump. With Lindor, they may find a taker too that meets a young controllable asking price, he’s that elite. For STL to take on Lindor, my guess is we’d have to reclaim Yadi’s 20mil AAV, and split our Lindor estimates at 22.5mil, as workable.

    COL may also be salary averse when shipping out Arenado, especially in this 2020 economic climate. Both these names are definitely wish list, for me, and highly unlikely imo.

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