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I can really only see two bad contract swaps out there for Fowler right now, given a trade for David Price or Ian Kennedy seem out of the question: Jeff Samardzija and Nathan Eovaldi.
A trade for Eovaldi could look like:
Fowler + Munoz + Ponce de Leon = Eovaldi + Josh Taylor + Thad Ward
Eovaldi makes $17 million for three years, Fowler makes $16.5 million for two years. For taking on the extra year of Eovaldi, the Cardinals upgrade their bullpen and acquire a good pitching prospect.
Boston gets help in that they have a more expensive option in the outfield than JBJ, however the Fowler acquisition means they can trade JBJ strictly for prospects, allowing his entire projected $11 million to come off the books, and giving them a couple of million dollars worth of breathing room to reset their salary cap (more if they don’t tender a few marginal pieces). They would probably move either Benitendi or Betts to CF and Fowler to the vacated corner spot.
The key to making this deal work is the secondary pieces the Cardinals send. Yairo Munoz can replace Brock Holt, which saves the Red Sox $3 million in salary compared to last year. Ponce de Leon can replace Eovaldi in the rotation, saving them $16.5 million. This is offset by the projected $5.5 million increase from JBJ to Fowler.
For taking on the extra year of Eovaldi and filling the roster with cost-controlled options that allow a luxury tax reset, the Cardinals would ask for Josh Taylor, a left-handed relief pitcher who pitched to a 3.04 ERA and 1.18 WHIP last year. They could also ask for Thad Ward, the Red Sox #8 prospect, who pitched to 2.14 ERA and 1.16 WHIP across A and A+ last year.
This also has the advantage of removing one person from the 40 man roster of the Cardinals so they can sign a backup catcher, and we trade two substandard fielders to open up playing time for better defensive players (assuming Fowler replaced by Arozorena/O’Neill and Munoz replace by Sosa).
One note on Eovaldi: He has a career 4.07 ERA in the NL vs 4.52 in the AL.
Fowler to Colorado for Wade Davis would be another bad contract swap. Davis has one year guaranteed then 2021 becomes a player option if he finishes 30 games in 2020. We might have to sweeten the pot a bit since Fowler has more guaranteed money owed.
I still think we match up well with Minnesota. They have spare starting caliber outfielders and a system with guys who could be of use. They also have a good bullpen, but not a ton of starting pitching. I know we don’t need any more outfielders but I highly covet Alex Kiriloff. I think the kid is gonna win batting titles and having Carlson-Kiriloff-Gorman in the 2-3-4 in three years would be a fearsome middle of the lineup. That’s where I’d use Cmart as the trade chip…aim for Rogers and Kiriloff and add a prospect to sweeten the deal. I also like their prospect pitchers Balazovic and Graterol if we decide to aim somewhere else. Plus if Cmart is traded I’d rather not have to face him in the NLDS in year or two.
Here is a trade idea… Fowler and Munoz for Sale ? BoSox looking to lower payroll so with Fowler at 18mil and Sale at 29mil they lower payroll we remove a roadblock
Sale is coming off an injury plagued season and is owed $145 million over the next five years. I think I will pass on him or Price.
several intriguing NOn-tenders yesterday
Taijuan Walker and Aaron Sanchez look enticing to me. Both have pedigree and some performance to show their value even if they both have injuries slowing them down. I’d gamble on one of them and see what comes of it.
Yimi Garcia
Treinen
BuchterMaikel Franco might be worth a look if we think we can fix him, still young enough
Domingo Santana is a power OF bat
Souza is an interesting ideaNOne of them are no brainer fixes for the team… BUT these are not trash players
Walker and Sanchez woudl be nice for depth and might free us up from depending on CMArt or outright trading him and still looking for an arm on the market…
Treinen might be a solid bounce back guy for the pen to help in a CMArt transition to rotation or trade
Franco and Santana might not be perfect but are both young and could provide wallup
I’m not saying we can’t find better, but they are intriguing additions to the FA market
Walker especially (for me) sticks out as a guy who could provide nice value…and if Sanchez can be fixed he could be well worth the wait for his injury to mend
Derrick Goold mentioned the idea of Carpenter playing left field in one of his answers during his chat. I hadn’t given that much thought, but it seems like it would be worth a try. Edman could play third base. Then again, it looks like we would match up well in a trade with Cleveland. Any, or all, of Edman, Bader, Knizner, Woodford, Arozarena ….. could find a place on the Indians 26-man roster.
A possible under the radar lefty I hope they are considering is Rich Hill. He’s going to be 40 next season, and obviously has a long list of injuries in his past, but a high incentive deal is likely the most he can hope for. I’m thinking more along the lines of come post season, having a lefty like him in the rotation could be very valuable. Maybe something similar to Waino’s deal?
In his last 4 years with the Dodgers, 68 starts, 3.16 ERA, 1.079 WHIP, 10.6/2.8 K/BB rates. If healthy and the Cards make the playoffs, he’d be able to slot in the #2 spot in the rotation. The “IF” part of that statement is obviously the biggest part of the whole thing.
Derrick Goold mentioned the idea of Carpenter playing left field in one of his answers during his chat. I hadn’t given that much thought, but it seems like it would be worth a try. Edman could play third base.
I have argued for this is as well. With Edman at 3B everyday we would have the best defensive infield in the NL in my opinion. Carp could share time in LF with the youngsters.
I don’t expect this to happen though.
Mo was recently quoted as saying he had no knowledge of talks about Carpenter playing in the OF.
Carpenter neither runs nor throws well. As much as I am against Edman as a regular in the OF, if these were the only two choices I was given, I would play Tommy out there. Fortunately there are other possibilities.
My prediction is more of the same from 2019. If Carpenter hits, he plays at third. If he doesn’t hit, eventually Edman replaces him and he becomes a reserve.
Yep I remember Mo’s comments which is why I stated I didn’t think it would happen. I’m just thinking if I had a starting staff that tended to throw a lot of ground balls I would want the best IF defense I could get and I think Edman is better than Carp.
Would Carp be good in LF? No, but neither was Ozuna and we survived.
Oh well I guess we will just have to deal with this issue for at least two more years and hope that Carp’s 2022 option doesn’t vest.
The lead idea in this article would be an interesting one but with one giant caveat that would just about make it a no go:
The Red Sox drop from $221 million in payroll to about $187 million, and the Cardinals go from $176 to $210. Betts is a big step up from Marcell Ozuna in the outfield, and the Cardinals still have plenty of outfield depth with Dexter Fowler, Harrison Bader, Lane Thomas, Tyler O’Neill and top prospect Dylan Carlson. The big question is whether the Cardinals would be willing to enter payroll territory they haven’t come close to before. For one year of Betts, plus added payroll depth, it’s worth aiming higher than another 91-71 team.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28211999/one-blockbuster-move-all-30-mlb-teams
<Brian wrote: If Carpenter hits, he plays at third. If he doesn’t hit, eventually Edman replaces him and he becomes a reserve.>
Agree but the problem becomes this. At what point is the decision made that they have seen enough and one or the other has to happen – mainly if he does not hit.
That deal seems like a win for the Red Sox. I really don’t want Eovaldi. Maybe Fowler, Garcia, and Seijas for Betts, with the Cards eating 5 mill of Fowlers deal for the next 2 years.
Unless Carp regains form, I hope he has less than 1100 plate appearances between 20-21, that way he doesn’t trigger the vesting option for 2022.
I like that idea of that Boston deal…though i’d remove Edman and add Munoz and another good prospect to counteract the Edman loss…Capel seems about right to me.
so:
Munoz, Randy, JMart, Cecil, Capel
for
Eovaldi and Bettspushing our budget that high seemsa no go..even if for one year…so i’d assume we’d have to find a place to dump Fowler for a lottery pick just to save the money…and maybe look at moving CMart too… that would get us under 200 to around 185ish and that i think could be palatable
Eovaldi isn’t amazing but he would work well enough
Betts woudl be what the team is missing and him with whatever we have in the system like Carlson or upside from the young OFers as well as a turnaround from underachievers like DeJong and CArp woudl be enough to get over the hump IMO to being a no doubt contender (yes i think dEJong underachieved)
Key would be getting Betts to stay to make it even more of a good deal…Winning woudl go a long way to getting Betts to come off wanting to hit free agency…but a big immediate extension can also be enticing as it could come with money NOW instead of later…Betts has been pretty healthy but he knows injuries happen
13yr 400mil….he is as close to Trout as there is in baseball, and Trout got 426.5m for 12…
and Betts is as good as there is in giving the Cardinals what it hasnt had in a long time…and that’s a Pujols level player…Goldy isn’t Goldy from 5 yrs ago…and even then he wasnt Pujols… Betts is a superstar and a player people want to play with and talk about…
If the farm keeps churning out 3/5ths of the rotation and providing depth in the field we won’t need major free agents…Carlson and Gorman take the place of Fowler and Carp potential production..Edman could diminish the loss of Wong potentially…Herrera and Knizner help replace Yadi…
2022 could look a lot like:
Edman, Carlson, Betts, Goldy, Gorman, DeJong, Knizner, ONeill
Jack, Hud, Eovaldi(last year), Mikolas (2nd to last year), Ponce/Woodford/Thompson/Rondon
Hicks, Helsley, Genesis, Reyes, Gallegos, Brebbia, Gant, Whitley
Sosa, Thomas, Bader, Herrera, Ravelothat’s a pretty young team…with a couple of big contracts in there…you probably extend Jack and Hud by then too but overall…pretty good
I feel like this is the future we are aiming for…except we don’t have a Betts level player to make it all work…we need that star…Betts is so young he is worth the huge contract length and money…
I like trading for Betts but not that trade. We sure don’t need Eovoldi and I am not giving up Edman.
O’Neill, JMart, Munoz, and Gant for Betts. I would do that.
Why the reluctance at Eovaldi? sure he makes a bit of money and wasn’t super healthy but we are looking for an arm on the market
if he brought Betts for cheaper I think we could find worse 4/5’s on the market…
im not saying i like him or even want him, but if he brought Betts along I could see him being useful for our needs at least on paper…
id rather go without Eovaldi too…but i think the point of him being included in the espn article is because he’d help clear payroll so it woudl entice the Sox to move him to us…personally i think as a suggestion ESPN woudl have been smarter to package Price seeing as the Cardinals were so high on him before the SOx took him…but whatever
‘Cardinals should stop bidding against themselves’
This writer’s editorial does not address the very real possibility that, if none of the three players used as examples doesn’t sign an extension for guaranteed money, then all of their WAR’s for 2019 are significantly higher because they are pushing for a big contract extension. The higher WAR’s translate into at least as much money as MO extended them for, if not more. His premise that the lower WAR is primarily age related is simplistic, IMO.How did that “big contract extension” push work for Ozuna last year? How about Wacha? It’s also simplistic to believe that players only play well when they’re underpaid and pushing for more.
Left-hander Cole Hamels and the Atlanta Braves are in agreement on a one-year, $18 million deal, sources tell ESPN.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 4, 2019
Wheeler to the Phillies…5 years, $118M.
I didn’t say that big contract extension (i.e. ‘walk year’) was the only thing in play. There are many factors in play. And in some cases it may cost a GM more money to sign a player if the GM waits another year or two. The suggestion that Goldschmidt’s and Carpenter’s production dropped off because they became a year older is pretty shallow.
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