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But since this thread is for dreams and ideas even if there little chance of ever happening, I will state that the one big move staring the Cardinals in the face is Mookie Betts. It has all the makings of a classic Cardinal move for talent. This is how we have acquired big stars in the past many many times.
Boston with their new Friedman-like GM from Tampa will be looking to move salary. Betts is projected to make $27M in his final year of arbitration and Boston may view this is as a good way to shed salary since he is a former MVP.
Jim Bowden speculated Knizer, Arozarena, and Montero could get Betts. I have no idea if it would or not but if it could I would be inclined to do that deal. First off, having Betts on your team for one year has a lot of value. He would be tremendous replacement for Ozuna and would make us a serious World Series contender. Would he sign a long term deal here? I have no idea but I think losing the three prospects mentioned is worth finding out.
One question I have in this scenario is could the Cardinals offer Betts arbitration after 2020? If not, that makes the deal less attractive because we couldn’t recoup one of the prospects.
Anyway, this deal would require Cardinal payroll to spike into the $185M range but would be for just one year.
How about this concept? In order to get rid of one of the bad contracts, would you give up a top prospect not named Carlson?
I wouldn’t, because it’s not my money and people are so fickle and don’t realize that Carpenter will very likely be a 3 WAR player again next year and Fowler is fine so long as he’s not being depended on (which he won’t unless he starts the season strong).
gscottar asked:
One question I have in this scenario is could the Cardinals offer Betts arbitration after 2020? If not, that makes the deal less attractive because we couldn’t recoup one of the prospects.
Yes, as long as the trade is made before the season starts.
gscottar said:
I will state that the one big move staring the Cardinals in the face is Mookie Betts. It has all the makings of a classic Cardinal move for talent. This is how we have acquired big stars in the past many many times.
That classic move has not worked as well recently. In fact, coincidentally, today is the five-year anniversary of the Jason Heyward trade.
The difference in the past when it worked is that those players were open to staying. Betts’ public statements are that he intends to test the market. Then we get into a very expensive rental and the need to fit an incremental $27.7 MM into a 2020 budget that cannot hold it.
What I ask myself is whether Betts would push the 2020 Cards over the top. Are they one player away from elite? Hard to say that…
This would be precisely the kind of “all-in” move that DeWitt has said multiple times he is against.
Yes, as long as the trade is made before the season starts.
The reason I asked is because if Betts was making $27M and the QO was around $18M that would be more than a 20% cut. Obviously he wouldn’t accept the QO but theoretically it would be more than a 20% cut.
Betts’ asking price is going to be somewhere around
10 yrs./$350M. Also, ‘continuity’ seems to have become a buzz word with the front office. I think that means that the front office wants players who like the organization and want to be with the Cardinals and stay with the Cardinals. If a player says he wants to test the market, then he’s telling everybody that it’s about the money, and only the money, and that would take Betts out of consideration. That said, with the front office saying they’re satisfied with the team and that they are expecting a quiet offseason, you have to wonder if the opposite will happen and something will pop up out of nowhere.But since this thread is for dreams and ideas even if there little chance of ever happening, I will state that the one big move staring the Cardinals in the face is Mookie Betts. It has all the makings of a classic Cardinal move for talent. This is how we have acquired big stars in the past many many times.
You have been the most vocal about the Cardinals having no payroll capacity. They can’t even afford a $15 million starting pitcher, so why could they afford a $27 million outfielder?
Assuming we can send back Fowler, Jose Martinez and Dominic Leone (which would probably require we send back both Norman and Carlson), that would still increase the Cardinals payroll by $7 million.
You have been the most vocal about the Cardinals having no payroll capacity. They can’t even afford a $15 million starting pitcher, so why could they afford a $27 million outfielder?
Which is why I prefaced my comments about dreaming. I don’t think they will do this move but IF they were to change their minds about their self-imposed budget limits then this would be the move to make IMO.
The 20% Maximum Cut Rule does not apply to free agents.
I remember the 20% cut rule being questioned by some last year for Wainwight’s 2019 one-year deal. Did it not apply because he was already in free agent status?
Euro, I recommend you read this.
Why Yadier Molina Should Not Receive an Early Contract Extension
Thanks for the replies C27 and Brian. That’s what I thought, but I vaguely recall it was questioned by some and seemed unclear for a few days surrounding Wainwright’s contract announcement last year.
Brian, your article is a rational approach for both Yadi and the Cards, and probably the only rational approach for the organization.
Jim Bowden wrote an interesting piece for The Athletic about potential trade partners for Lindor. He named the Yankees, Dodgers, and Phillies. Just saying….the Yankees need pitching more than they need a shortstop. After all, they have Torres, and Gregorious is apparently still in play for them. The Dodgers’ top prospect (Gavin Lux) happens to be a shortstop. Besides, the Dodgers are looking for pitching more than anything else. The Phillies just spent $330M on Harper, proving undeniably, that people who spend ‘stupid money’ are themselves stupid. The Phillies need pitching more than anything else. But the Phillies’ best prospects are pitchers, so they would probably have to offer pitching in a trade offer for Lindor. In other words, they don’t seem to be a good match for the Indians, either. So it doesn’t look like any of Bowden’s suggested trade partners match up very well.
If the Cardinals are determined not to spend much money this winter there are a handful of relatively cheap players they could trade for that could really impact this team.
Brad Hand $7.5M
Edwin Diaz $3.75M
Mitch Haniger $3.0M
David Peralta $9.0MNone of these guys would break the bank. We could thin out the herd of our OF depth by trading some of them.
What I ask myself is whether Betts would push the 2020 Cards over the top. Are they one player away from elite? Hard to say that…
They very well could be.
Let me start with a few premises…1) Every “elite” team has at least one MVP level performance, typically from one of their star players. (See 2018 Dodgers who won 92 games and the 2019 team that won 107) 2) Elite teams get good production from just about every part of the team, although some are so good at one or two things that they can get away with one subpar unit (like the 2019 Nats and their awful bullpen). 3) Elite teams generally have either good injury luck or key contributions from an unexpected source, such a as a rookie or stopgap player. (Too numerous to list). Occasionally you see a team fall outside this like the 2019 Yankees but it’s not common.
If one were to add Betts to this team (giving up, say, O’Neill, Knizner and Rondon), ignoring the payroll issue for the moment (which I’m certain is not a hard and fast rule), you’re nearly assured of that MVP type performance and at a spot that has been pretty mediocre of late, RF. It’s probably a 3-4 win upgrade, minimum, from the 91 win 2019 team. Of course, he doesn’t make the team elite by himself but is it impossible to imagine a few of the following things happening…?
1. Goldy hits more like 2013-18 Goldy in a nice bounce back. Goldy+Betts>Bad Goldy+Ozuna
2. Carp experiences a slight bounce back more in line with his career norms (say, 115-120 wRC+), which allows Edman to move around the diamond and start at different positions.
3. Carlson continues the trend of good prospects making an impact early in their first season after he’s called up in May or June.
4. Carlos slots back into the rotation as the #2-3 guy he was for 4 seasons, giving us a better 1-5 than the 2019 rotation.
5. We get something for the year from the combo of Reyes and Hicks, even if it’s just a half year of health combined. The stuff is too good to not be impactful with any health at all.
I’m not saying that these couldn’t be balanced by other things happening (like an injury to Flaherty or Betts, Yadi finally looking his age, Edman being a flash in the pan, Bader never hitting, Wong and Dejong regressing, etc) but it’s not a huge stretch to say that if we got 3 or more of my 1-5 above happening, this team could win 95-100 games, and especially so if it’s 1-4.
10 years of Betts…. Ill pass. Let him soak up some others team’s cash for that long. He’s not an automatic 2020 All-Star (see Fowler). Getting Betts ain’t happening.
Who said anything about 10 yrs of Betts? I was talking about one year.
I don’t think it will happen either but what else do we have to talk about in regards to the hot stove? It is is going to be a long winter.
Another affordable name out there is Joc Pederson, projected at $9M for his final year of arbitration.
When Matt Carpenter was on his game, he was explosive.
I think KMOX should stick to radio. Here is a very, very simplistic article that identifies five teams that the author sees as a fit for Betts. Of course, it includes the Cards, but conveniently does not mention the flat payroll issue. The only players he talks about in trade are prospect catchers.
He closes by noting that the Cards would be unlikely to sign Betts to an extension for more than Boston would offer. (And if that was enough money for him, the Red Sox wouldn’t trade him in the first place.) In other words, he finishes by explaining why Betts is NOT a fit for the Cards after saying he is. Not good logic.
Cardinals Nation could be Mookie Betts' new home#STLCards https://t.co/oxfkuyFQ3S
— KMOX Sports (@KMOXSports) November 18, 2019
Folks, time for a wake up call. This spring, an AL executive said Mookie Betts fetching a $500 MM free agent contract next winter is "a possibility". https://t.co/0CnQFPyZi1
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) November 19, 2019
Lets be honest most of the stuff here is a pipe dream, the FO will do little to nothing this off-season and just say we are good enough as is…that is a fact we all pretty much just should expect with the clown show we have running the team.
Well I never posted the Betts idea on this thread as a likely scenario. It was just a what if scenario based on some of the moves the Cardinals have done in the past.
We all know in all probability the Cardinal offseason will only consist of some very modestly priced LH OF and that will be it, but I guess it doesn’t hurt to throw ideas out once in awhile, which is the point of this thread.
It is going to be a long, boring winter thanks to all of our bloated internal contracts.
gscottar, no need to apologize. Heck, KMOX ran an article suggesting Betts to the Cards could happen, and they keep re-Tweeting it as if they are really proud of a piece that politely is not even good click bait. Even so, it is less far-fetched than when the Belleville dude wrote a few weeks ago about how the Cards could trade for Stanton this winter. It is the part of the season where there is not much real news, so writers with deadlines get creative. It reminds me that being self-employed has advantages.
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