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The Cardinal Nation’s #STLCards prospect countdown hits no. 2 with an RHP who has an explosive fastball. Despite 2024 being his 4th year, Tink Hence is still just 21. Pitching deeper into games and sharpening breaking pitches may be on his to-do list. ($) https://t.co/XdJGV3dyuX pic.twitter.com/Q3Wl6pDqs2
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 8, 2024
Speaking of the Lester-Thomas trade, it was fun to go back and read the discussion here at that time. A lot of concern about the age of the rotation (LeBlanc, Lester, Happ). 2 1/2 years later and only the names have changed.
I am not sure what to make of the Cardinals handling of Tink Hence. Brian talked with a scout who didn’t like his very short stints. I’d have to disagree with that scout’s assessment, as most times he was never allowed over 50 or 60 pitches. Perhaps Hence lost velocity, or simply was more hittable, but I don’t think so. In 2024, he surely has to be allowed to throw 80+ pitches.
The question to ask is why a top prospect starting pitcher through three seasons of pro ball and without significant injury history is still being limited to 75 pitches every sixth day after half a season at Double-A. I’ve asked many in the organization multiple times over the years and do not get a substantive answer.
I understand and accept the scout’s point. Low pitch counts possibly affecting his MLB future as a starter is a real concern until it is proven to not be a concern. 75-80 pitches as an MLB starter won’t cut it, so will he hold up at 100-110 pitches every fifth day?
Still, he is my no. 2 prospect, ahead of Roby. But I am concerned.
P.S. Another comparison point on starting pitchers, showing the size of the gap Hence needs to close.
McGreevy made 27 starts and threw 2491 pitches in 153 innings.
Hence made 23 starts and threw 1592 pitches in 96 innings.In a FREE article, The Cardinal Nation’s prospect countdown for 2024 reaches no. 1 with the 21-year-old starting SS of the #STLCards. Masyn Winn has the defense and the tools to improve on his MLB intro at the plate and play in the majors for a long time. https://t.co/4IOWOgsKKQ pic.twitter.com/ewH3K4tSON
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 9, 2024
The Cardinals have had little to no success bringing a starter up through the system to a successful role in the ML rotation. At this point, it is reasonable to consider that track record when thinking about somebody like Hence. The pitch count might well be nothing but throwing something against the wall, as an alternative to what hasn’t been working. Nothing says they know what they are doing.
I never like to get too excited about a pitcher in A ball, including the whippy arm types. Hence had a choppy intro to the higher levels, but I’m not too worried about that necessarily. He will need to demonstrate mastery of the level as well as establishing that he can tolerate a heavier work load over the course of a season without breaking down.
In the process of preparing the new Prospect Guide, I found one extra spiral bound printed copy of the 2023 Guide I didn’t realize I still had. If anyone wants it, I will send it postage included for $34.95, $10 off.
The annual The Cardinal Nation #STLCards All-Prospect Team is the top prospect at each position and includes 11 players – eight position players and three pitchers. Nine of the 11 turned over from 2023 with four-time top SS Masyn Winn team captain. (FREE) https://t.co/CreOWtprCr pic.twitter.com/5MeXZkjjac
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) February 1, 2024
L want to circle back the the discussion of Tink Hence back in early January.
The question to ask is why a top prospect starting pitcher through three seasons of pro ball and without significant injury history is still being limited to 75 pitches every sixth day after half a season at Double-A. I’ve asked many in the organization multiple times over the years and do not get a substantive answer.
Brian I appreciate that you have tried to get an answer. The question that comes to mind is whose decision would it be, ultimatly? It seems like you know how the org is put together, so I would value your opinion on that.
I think it is ultimately the call of Tim Leveque, senior pitching coordinator, who reports to the farm director. I don’t know how strong the dotted line is to StL pitching coach Dusty Blake. In other words, I don’t know how much Blake is engaged regarding the system’s top prospects. Then there is the question of the performance and medical folks… I know the pieces, but how they work together is never clear.
Brian, thanks for taking a stab at that one. I kind of think if Tink asked the question, he would get an answer similar to what you got. And I think it is probably the accurate answer. I have come around to that way of thinking after having given a lot of thought to the upcoming AA rotation in Springfield. Some guys have been brought along through A ball and some will be selected to get the increasingly scarce rotation slots. It looks like most, perhaps all, of those chosen for the AA rotation will have never, or barely, thrown 100 innings. That seems like a system short circuit. It is unknown if they can even carry the necessary load, and none have any significant exposure to going three times through, or facing later inning situations. Meanwhile, other less promising candidates, but who do have stronger experience, will be sent to relief work. It seems like the system has a life of its own, and no human can direct the course of affairs toward a more suitable outcome. (Not without getting Shildted, at least.)
I haven’t done a very good job of explaining my point. I don’t think that a human, tasked with producing starters which can feed into the MLB rotation would get into this kind of situation. Humans know that a pitcher is not new out of the box fresh for very long. If all you know is how a prospective starter looks for 60 pitches, you don’t know anything. How does he respond when he is tired? How does his stuff look when he’s tired? Can he do anything about it?
We have no idea how any of these guys are going to look if they try to go deep. What may be ready to feed the AAA rotation nest year is anybody’s guess. Mo may well be scrambling to find people again later this year. He did well at that, but when I look at what is going on a level down at AA, I am convinced the problem has not been addressed. The system is not doing what it is there to do, but it is nobody’d fault because everybody is checking the boxes they are supposed to check and pulling the levers they are supposed to pull.
Whose fault is it a touted started is 4 years in and never been load tested? Its nodody’d fault, because seeing to it is nobody’s job. That illustrates the problem, and I am convinced it has not been fixed.
I don’t think it is fair to assume it is nobody’s job just because we don’t know.
One time I asked, I was told a high velocity arm has only so many bullets in it, so why use them in the minors?
The plan for Tink is clearly that this is what is best for the organization to use him in that way. I don’t know if I agree, but I am far removed from the situation so how can I know? It might be the best approach possible. It might miserably fail. They are doing something different expecting a different result. I guess I applaud the effort to try to experiment. But I worry that not throwing those innings gives him far less experience on the mound. Time will tell us if it was successful or not. Of course we’ll never be able to compare to how it would have been had he been used in a normal fashion.
I don’t think it is fair to assume it is nobody’s job just because we don’t know.
It seems fair to assume it is nobody’s job because it didn’t get done.
a high velocity arm has only so many bullets in it, so why use them in the minors?
This thought has been around as long as I can remember. I don’t think it has ever been interpreted to mean one should not find out if a pitcher has the resiliency to be a starter. That was always sorted in A level ball, and the guys who had what it took carried on as starters in the upper levels. You would never have your AA rotation stoked with guys who may well not be able to carry that load because you never found out. Its ridiculous.
This is what I had to say about Roby back in January:
“I’m not hopping on the Roby bandwagon. I think its a pipe dream. If he’s ever thrown more than 104 innings it was in high school before the pandemic. As a pro he’s had both elbow and shoulder injuries, each time serious enough to miss a big chunk of a season. He’s got ‘electric’ stuff, but clearly his arm cannot hold up to the beating it takes to throw that stuff. The hope that it will ever hold up to an MLB starters workload is, to me, a pipe dream. I think we are all getting giddy over some of the numbers, and losing sight of the reality of the situation.”
I had said essentially the same the previous November when the Community Top 50 thread was on the top group. I cannot begin to count the number of times I have stepped in front of an out of control bandwagon only to get run down by the happy campers careening along. He has two more layoffs since then, his back and whatever this latest is. Still, I am sure everyone is waving the pom poms pretending like we have something. And its not just us, all the rankings I’ve seen have him one of our top prospects. Even the pros need to pass on the kool aide.
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