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Bling, i use an expected value calculation for the most part with prospects. In that calculation it would not be uncommon for a high floor. player tô have a higher chance of reaching the majors than many ranked above him.
There are different ways of valuing prospects, and some aspects of it don’t have anything to do with the players themselves. The best argument I have heard againt valuing prospects the way I do is that the complementary player types can be had every winter. So you might as well be looking at the potential big star regardless of risk, of the chance that it happens. But I always look at all the teams that spend big to load up on big stars and then fizzle because of poor quality of the team around them. With the Cardinals never getting to draft near the top, I always felt like we should be going for the high floor types, develop them into competent big leaguers, and trade off what we don’t need for what we do. In that way, when we do come up with some stars, we can put a team around them.
The Cardinal Nation’s #stlcards 2024 prospect countdown reaches no. 43 with a hard throwing reliever whose questionable command and 2023 suspension put his already slow-moving career on hold. Can Leonardo Taveras recover? ($) https://t.co/HgcVcXciKn pic.twitter.com/WQfp6dGLju
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) November 27, 2023
Coming in at no. 42 in The Cardinal Nation’s #STLCards 2024 prospect countdown is an outfielder with sharp tools and a good all-around game. Alex Iadisernia should be ready for Double-A during 2024. ($) https://t.co/AuAVbNPx0y pic.twitter.com/tfaaBD7uMl
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) November 28, 2023
The Cardinal Nation’s #STLCards 2024 prospect countdown reaches no. 41 with a reliever possessing the best slider in the system two years running. But Andrew Marrero's shaky control and struggles with lefty hitters kept his promotion progress slow. ($) https://t.co/D7NW4q7wx3 pic.twitter.com/Za7IjWJwdO
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) November 29, 2023
At no. 40 in The Cardinal Nation’s #STLCards prospect countdown for 2024 is a promising right hander who has the materials for success, but Austin Love's ability to develop further has been slowed by injury. FREE article. https://t.co/7cdT4CWNhj pic.twitter.com/7Kuz4HTY1Y
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) November 30, 2023
At no. 39 in The Cardinal Nation’s #STLCards 2024 prospect countdown is RHP Dionys Rodriguez, a 2021 standout whose best hope of reaching St. Louis is as a reliever with higher velocity and better results. But time is running short. ($) https://t.co/lF74XH5LyU pic.twitter.com/SOcKxy0XPT
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 1, 2023
The Cardinal Nation’s 2024 #STLCards prospect countdown reaches no. 38 with Noah Mendlinger, a left-handed, high on-base hitter who had a solid 2023 with Double-A Springfield. @bt_newberry outlines the reasons for optimism for the utilityman's future. ($) https://t.co/TV54XPY16x pic.twitter.com/4rhSzbWxcY
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 2, 2023
Maybe a Donovan type? Under normal circumstances, a smallish player without much power and who doesn’t steal many bases isn’t going to go very far.
No. 37 on The Cardinal Nation’s #STLCards 2024 prospect countdown is a control lefty who finished 2022 strongly, but after a down 2023, Connor Thomas lost his 40-man roster spot. ($) https://t.co/8YrcafoJxW pic.twitter.com/aXM4Ufjrw2
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 3, 2023
Coming in at no. 36 on The Cardinal Nation’s #STLCards 2024 prospect countdown is a newcomer from Cincinnati with plus defense, speed and arm as a center fielder. But is Michael Siani's bat going be enough for him to earn a role with St. Louis? ($) https://t.co/l4MBS87j1a pic.twitter.com/kOgMNJf4yP
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 4, 2023
At no. 35 in The Cardinal Nation’s #STLCards prospect countdown for 2024 is a groundball specialist with a plus curveball. As the starting pitching pyramid narrows with St. Louis approaching, how will lefty Alex Cornwell fit? FREE detailed scouting report and future outlook.… pic.twitter.com/WRAGBMUogs
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 5, 2023
Cornwell’s stuff was described by Blake as pedestrian. He also has a repertoite that he can throw for strikes. The thinking with that kind of pitcher coming up used to be keep close watch on the second time through the lineup and let him start until and unless he starts getting hit around too much the second time through. I hope the Cardinals org follows that approach with him, rather than moving him because they think they have enough better starters. If he can get through the lineup twice in AA, see if he can do it in AAA. If necessary, move aside somebody who has trouble throwing strikes. If he can’t get through the lineup twice in AAA, then move him to the pen.
I get where you are coming from. But you can’t ignore the others because rotation spots are finite and limited. There may be room to keep Cornwell starting at Double-A, but I don’t see how he can crack the Triple-A rotation, especially with all the new arms in house to evaluate. Tough decisions have to be made as the pyramid narrows.
The Cardinal Nation’s #STLCards 2024 prospect countdown reaches no. 34 with a newcomer who features a very effective sinker/slider combination. How soon can extreme ground ball reliever Matt Svanson reach St. Louis? ($) https://t.co/jZnkNcbETC pic.twitter.com/zl3CwoHLZg
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 6, 2023
No. 33 in The Cardinal Nation’s 2024 prospect countdown is the #STLCards' fifth round draft pick from 2023. Zach Levenson showed his power and if his hit tool continues to develop, the outfielder has a good shot at a future MLB role. ($) https://t.co/biS3fwUoAa pic.twitter.com/UUIqMuRzsY
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 7, 2023
Coming in at no. 32 in The Cardinal Nation’s #STLCards 2024 prospect countdown is an outfielder with raw power and great instincts on the bases, but Joshua Baez’ hit tool is holding him back. After a 2nd year at Low-A, what is next for the 20-year-old? ($) https://t.co/d28sOf9Bga pic.twitter.com/4okCQ0LaIw
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 8, 2023
The Cardinal Nation’s 2024 #STLCards prospect countdown reaches no. 31 with a speedster who profiles well as a fourth outfielder in the majors. Mike Antico should be ready for Triple-A in 2024. ($) https://t.co/erE3wbMeRF pic.twitter.com/6LEj7zFctN
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 9, 2023
I have somewhat of a problem with Blake’s take on the Antico/Siani comparison. Their offense specifically. Blake thinks Antico has the clear advantage, enough so theat Siani’s playability in MLB is questionable, whereas Antico’s is not.
The thing that lit me up about it is that Siani did as well or better in his only AA season than Antico did in the first of his two AA seasons, including both OBP and SLG.
Antico .233/.327/.383/.711
Siani .252/.351/.404/.754Antico did improve some in his second AA season, but I think we have to wait now until Antico has tried his hand at AAA, and we see if his results are significantly better than Siani’s. My thinking is he is likely to run into the same thing Siani did upon moving up.
I don’t speak for Blake but your analysis seems reasonable to me. In my personal rankings, the two were ranked together. Blake had them seven spots apart. I admit that I have a much greater familiarity with Antico, though.
We shall see…
At no. 30 in The Cardinal Nation’s #STLCards prospect countdown for 2024 is a pitcher who performed well at High-A, but can Trent Baker make necessary adjustments to start successfully at Double-A? FREE article. https://t.co/vHlUx8SQ4c pic.twitter.com/7MNy57y3pt
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 10, 2023
Hey blingboy, I can provide my thoughts on this. I’m looking at the stats but also beyond them.
Surface level stats tell us that Siani has never been a good hitter. He’s been league average twice but is consistently well below the league average at the plate. Antico has been much better throughout his career.
Siani also doesn’t do much well. The plate discipline is a plus but he doesn’t have much power and really struggles to find the barrel/sweet spot. Antico, on the other hand, hits the ball harder and has the ability to consistently pull his fly balls. That helps his power play up. Siani does not possess this ability and, when paired with the fact that he doesn’t hit the ball hard and he doesn’t hit barrels or sweet spots, it really limits his impact at the plate.
I would be a little higher on Siani’s bat if he was a strong contact hitter but he’s not. He’s maybe about average in that regard.
Antico simply has more going for him and a better track record of success at the plate. That’s why I’m higher on Antico’s bat.
I’ll add the caveat that Antico very well could struggle at Triple-A but the point of scouting is trying to describe what is happen and use it to predict what will/might happen. I’m not able to wait and write my scouting report of Antico until he plays in Triple-A so I have to go with what I see and what I see is that Antico has more potential impact in his bat than Siani.
Also, I want to add that the playability of both players in the majors is questionable. These are fringe prospects that we’re talking about, they aren’t clear cut MLB contributors that we can comfortably project to lock down a roster spot year in and year out.
Blake…. I just want to butt in here and say that I have more faith in your high powered cred level than anyone else’s here. With all due respect to Bling… I don’t see that you should feel a need to defend your rankings, especially with a 30-something spot.
Bling…. I’ve read 1000s of your comments here and know that you are one of the best diehards on TCN. Give Blake a pass on this one.
I appreciate that! I also don’t mind a little bit of prospect discourse! I do enjoy seeing other opinions and that helps pass the time in the long offseason months.
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