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I put forward an idea of where, specifically, I think they might have gone wrong with Davis.
I am not making this up. I know for a certain fact that scouts used to pile into the ballparks on Friday night because that’s when the best pitchers pitched. I know this because I knew one such scout as a kid and I went with him on occasion. They wanted to see what guys did against those pitchers because that’s what they would face every day as a pro. I know this because I was told it by that scout and others that were sitting right there letting me talk to them. They did not care at all what somebody’s season stats were because they knew it didn’t matter, and their bosses knew it didn’t matter. “I don’t care how hard he can hit the ball off a future car salesman”, is an exact quote. I would bet a paycheck that is absolutely not the case now days. I think they got it wrong on Davis, and if so, it is because they are slobbering over numbers that don’t matter. My guess is they do not know they don’t matter because they don’t even think about it. The numbers are there, the algos are there, so they use them. That is their job.
That the best college pitchers typically throw on Friday is not debatable. That you talked to a scout is interesting. That they knew stats against certain pitchers in the past were potentially more indicative than against other pitchers is not a concept that would have been lost over time. In fact, today’s data is much more available, granular and sortable than it would have been in the old days and there are more people poring over info looking for an edge.
On the other hand, it may be totally irrelevant in this case.
You have a theory, but
No data on Davis’s results on Friday vs. other days to support your idea. (or against better vs. poorer pitchers)
No information on how the Cardinals use data vs. scouting reports vs. upside projection vs. injury history vs. character and work ethic vs. signability, etc. to assess a player.Without that, it is a blind dartboard throw to accuse them of “slobbering over numbers that don’t matter”.
It is a blind dartboard throw.
Its a guess, so you can say that’s a dartboard throw. But its not blind, its based upon decades of observation and knowledge of the game.
We can also talk about blind squirrel finds vs whatever it is you think they’re doing.
As I have pointed out previously, whether you are looking at a ML season, or looking at system ranking, a bad result is not nobody’s fault. And if you note that BDW has had to go outside to get the whole rotation, the middle of the order, the catcher, and probably some of the pen, you cannot say that is nobody’s fault and everything is fine. Acquisition and development has failed profoundly. That is not nobody’s fault.
We were talking about Chase Davis and why he may have struggled in his debut. It is being blamed on algorithms without any supporting evidence. That has nothing to do with years of observing anything. It is just throwing ideas against the wall focusing on a pet issue.
without any supporting evidence.
His batting line is theevidence. You want to say he just got off to a slow start, but there is no evidence for that. None that is any different than mine. Given the state of things, I’m not giving out free passes. After that start, If he’s not a bungled first round pick his bat will have to prove it.
I agree that his bat has to prove it. Every prospect has to prove himself. I watched Davis play and spoke with him and with others about him. That is why I ranked him #16 when Pipeline has him third. Where we disagree is in the haste to assign blame with nothing to back it up.
If I read the recent community vote thread correctly, you had Davis at no. 10 on your list though he ended up number 9 per the group. It is curious that you have become so negative on him now since he hasn’t done anything in the last six weeks.
I have him at 10 rather than 3rd like the cleaning lady. I allow that 1st round shine should last more than the draft year. I also couldn’t find more than 9 guys I liked better. Having learned more about many guys via the articles, I would probably have a few more ahead if I was doing it now.
Jnevel, I don’t think its the computers that are wrong. They are just a tool, like a hammer. Just because somebody knows how to swing a hammer doesn’t mean they know how to build a house. I think Mo has too many expert hammer swingers and too few expert house builders.
Now for something different.
I was a little frustrated that the discussion of Bernal’s precipitous power drop amounted to little more than a shoulder shrug. Nobody on the Community thread seemed concerned either. It seems to me like maybe they were working on some tweek of his mechanics or some aspect of his approach or the like, and were willing to do without the power for the time being to work on whatever they were working on. His walk rate may be evidence of some work on the approach. I hope it was by design at least, because his batting line displays the dreaded OBP exceeding SLG. Maybe the org could get a BOGO deal from Donovan’s guru and send Bernal and Cho.
I do hope he gets the ST invite and we get some more video and eyewitness commentary. Its hard to get much exposure to the A level guys, but admittedly that is partly due to lack of effort on my part.
The Cardinal Nation’s 2024 #STLCards prospect countdown reaches no. 8 with a sinker/slider specialist who at 22 years of age, gained most of a year of Triple-A experience. What does Michael McGreevy need to do to take the next step? ($) https://t.co/VoQmiFw2Zv pic.twitter.com/PscwWvJKd2
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 2, 2024
At no. 7 in The Cardinal Nation’s 2024 prospect countdown is the #STLCards' first rounder from 2022. Cooper Hjerpe came back from injury to pitch in the Arizona Fall League. What’s next for the low arm slot lefty? ($) https://t.co/WJJnoQ5aDW pic.twitter.com/61a2zx4WxR
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 3, 2024
The Cardinal Nation’s 2024 #STLCards prospect countdown is down to no. 6 with a RHP with a quality four-pitch arsenal. However, Gordon Graceffo’s 2023 at Triple-A was limited due to injury and his competition has grown. ($) https://t.co/wh3vcD84Iu pic.twitter.com/oz9j3W9Su1
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 4, 2024
In a FREE article, The Cardinal Nation’s prospect countdown for 2024 reaches no. 5 with an advanced hitter who won the 2023 Double-A Texas League MVP award. After Thomas Saggese masters Triple-A, how and when might the 2B fit onto the #STLCards' roster? https://t.co/RPsDgtZmcn pic.twitter.com/CyezCMMPRd
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 5, 2024
These last four guys plus the likely top 4 (Scott, Roby, Hence and Winn in some order) are all in the position to make an impact on the big league club in 2024 or 2025. That’s going to be so necessary as they’re going to be the difference between an also ran and a contender going forward. I’m adding in Walker as a recent graduate but we are desperately in need of:
Scott or Winn to become a starting quality player at a key defensive position or CF or SS.
Walker to be closer to average with the glove and be the replacement for Goldy as a >140 OPS+ slugger in the middle of the lineup.
Saggese and the other of Scott or Winn to be at least a playable utility guy.
Two of Graceffo, Roby, Hence, McGreevy and Hjerpe to become big league capable starters, and one of those guys needs to be a #1 or #2.
Going along with a still playable Goldy and Arenado, solid DH/C from Contreras, Gorman being a useful 2B, Edman playing well all over, and Gray in the rotation…we can probably spend or trade for enough to remain relevant if all those things happen. If not…we are looking at .500 or worse records most years until we get a crop that’s solid enough to compete for the playoffs.
If indeed that’s what it takes, then I have good news for you 25.
I’m highly confident Winn becomes at least an average player by the 2nd half of 2024 going forward.
I’m highly confident that Victor Scott could be at least “playable” today. He may not make it to average. It just really depends on his bat. Obviously he gets propped up a lot with speed and defense. But he still needs a lot of development as a hitter.
I’m highly confident Saggese will be at least “playable” by 2025. Again, I’m not sure I’m confident he’ll be an average mlb everyday player, but both he and Scott certainly could reach that bar. I think Saggese is a lot less important because today there’s no place to put him on the roster.
I’m modestly confident that Walker can be close to an average defender. Your 140 WRC+ may be a challenge, especially in 2024, but it’s certainly possible.
I’m not so confident that 2 of those 5 hurlers are going to turn into a 1 or a 2 and put up consistent 3.5.+ WAR seasons. However, I don’t think that’s really needed at all. What we really need is 3 guys who can reach the #3 level. And we have those 5 candidates plus Bedell and Rajcic who all have good chances plus a few others with an outside chance of doing the same. I think we will see 3-5 of these guys become consistent 2.5+ WAR performers as starters.
In the present though, our real fortunes depend on how well Gorman, Walker, Carlson, Donovan, and Nootbaar hit (plus Bling’s Bronze Busts” and of course Herrera and Contreras). This could be a really good offense. 7 hitters every day should be better than average.
When I watch those GIFs of Saggese going down and batting those breaking balls, I wonder why he isn’t more highly regarded. His bat control is unbelievable. And he’s only 21 years old, 22 years old on April 10. If he plays second base somewhere, maybe he misses a play once in awhile. So what? His bat makes up for it. The scout Brian quoted wondered why the Cardinals wanted him since there isn’t an apparent opening for him. Duh. They wanted him because he was the best available. Nothing wrong with that. If Saggese maintains his past minors hitting success at Memphis, I don’t see how they can keep him there very long.
The main thing I learned from the Saggese article and discussion is that weak statcast data is as readily dismissed when it fails to serve as impressive statcast data is harped on when it does serve. I have been waiting for an analytics junkie to step forward and confidently say something like ‘problematic advanced metrics suggests present performance will not be sustainable versus advanced competition’. He did have a great year in AA, so hopefully the eye test is the better indicater after all, and all the excitement will pan out.
I’d rather see Saggese play every day with Memphis than sit on St. Louis’ bench as the third string second baseman and occasional pinch hitter. As long as Gorman and Donovan are healthy, it doesn’t matter how well Saggese might be hitting at Memphis. He is blocked. But depth is always good to have available.
The Cardinal Nation’s 2024 #STLCards prospect countdown is down to no. 4 with a center fielder who has game-changing speed and Gold Glove defense. What else does Victor Scott need to accomplish to become a standout major leaguer? ($) https://t.co/auxSXfROZe pic.twitter.com/xPflsHCHzD
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 6, 2024
At no. 3 on The Cardinal Nation’s #STLCards 2024 prospect countdown is a newcomer who arrived from Texas with great promise. Tekoah Roby has a nasty 4-pitch arsenal and above avg. command but missed major time due to injury in 2 of his 3 pro seasons. ($) https://t.co/Vq5m6edEPg pic.twitter.com/aesCqr70sZ
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 7, 2024
I’m not hopping on the Roby bandwagon. I think its a pipe dream. If he’s ever thrown more than 104 innings it was in high school before the pandemic. As a pro he’s had both elbow and shoulder injuries, each time serious enough to miss a big chunk of a season. He’s got ‘electric’ stuff, but clearly his arm cannot hold up to the beating it takes to throw that stuff. The hope that it will ever hold up to an MLB starters workload is, to me, a pipe dream. I think we are all getting giddy over some of the numbers, and losing sight of the reality of the situation. To an extent I think we are getting carried away about Saggese as well. These guys together were offed by Texas for a two month rental. We do desperatly need some life at the top of the system, though, so it will be great if this all pans out.
Roby’s an oft injured thoroughbred, but Kloffenstein’s a workhorse. He may be an innings eater in the 2025 rotation.
Prospects that are traded for rentals can turn out to be very good. In August of 1987 the Braves traded Doyle Alexander to the Tigers for a young pitcher in AA by the name of John Smoltz.
The Rangers have to be thrilled with how the Monty/Stratton for Roby/Saggese/King trade worked for them in 2023 but it could turn out to be a good trade for the Cardinals in the long run.
I didn’t really didn’t do much research. That was just off the top of my head. I am sure there have been many others since then.
Lane Thomas comes to mind.
294 total bases in 2023, more than anyone on our roster.
168 hits, more than anyone on our roster.
101 runs scored, more than anyone on our roster.
28 home runs, more than anyone on our roster.
86 RBIs, more than anybody except Arenado.He’s under team control through the 2025 season.
Yeah, that was a steal for a rental.
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