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.@bt_newberry and I continue The Cardinal Nation’s annual tradition as we kick off our 19th annual #stlcards Top 50 Prospect countdown on Monday, with a new article daily, running well into the New Year. https://t.co/DuvReWyBYb pic.twitter.com/c6sONlnjxR
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) November 19, 2023
Here we go with our annual #STLCards Top 50 prospect countdown! Check out The Cardinal Nation's very detailed and FREE scouting report on our #50 prospect, RHP Guillermo Zuñiga. Subscribe now to read all 62 articles coming in the series! https://t.co/SslT8n5TOa pic.twitter.com/3iFr4kH1kD
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) November 20, 2023
On Zuñiga, under the sub-heading ‘Acquired’ it says ‘Signed to a major league contract ….’ I’m not sure what that means in terms of dollars. Would you please clarify?
When Zuniga was signed, even though he was a minor leaguer, he was given a 40-man roster spot by the Cardinals. Often players in that situation have a split contract in which they make at least the MLB minimum ($720K last year) in the bigs and a lesser amount when in the minors.
It was good for him that his IL move occurred when he was in the majors. That way, he got MLB pay and service time.
Thanks for the clarification.
I’m sure Guillermo Zuniga has been trying hard all his long years in the minors. Blake Newberry provided an exhaustive explanation for why the front office was willing to bet 740K on what appears to be an unsalvageable prospect. It’s just too bad that the odds look super slim that it will ever pay off. ‘One man’s misfortune is another man’s treasure’, or so they say. I feel bad of WDWJr and his investors including Cardinal fans, and good for Guilly (short for Guillermo).
I am going to post all the daily articles here, but note that four of every five are for paid members only. Look for the ($) in the tweets and the gold key in front of the article titles.
Thank you to those who support the site and subscribe!
At no. 49 in TCN’s 2024 top prospect countdown is a 19 y/o 2B with good plate discipline progress in 2023. Yet, Bahamian Adari Grant, a #stlcards top 2021 int'l signing, is still in rookie ball with results that haven’t caught up with his promise. ($) https://t.co/nKaxKk6IhS pic.twitter.com/DrTgXg0E0B
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) November 21, 2023
Ranked 48th in The Cardinal Nation’s 2024 #stlcards prospect countdown is Zane Mills, a command and control right-hander who was hindered by injury, leading to a second year at High-A and facing increased rotation competition ahead. ($) https://t.co/o3Ae8p4kdW pic.twitter.com/HRB5R0AgHT
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) November 22, 2023
Wow, I never expected to see Zane Mills still standing in the top 50. But it looks like Brian and Blake are both pretty divided on him.
Had a typo. Redmond is actually #47.
At no. 46 in The Cardinal Nation’s 2024 prospect countdown is a power-hitting 1Bman. Chandler Redmond’s 2023 feats include setting the Springfield career RBI record. With perhaps just 1 more year to put his name into the #STLCards picture, can he do it in his age 27 season? ($)… pic.twitter.com/vrVk8j2QWK
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) November 23, 2023
The Cardinal Nation’s #STLCards 2024 prospect countdown reaches no. 46 with a 20-year-old shortstop who played for Peoria then in the Arizona Fall League. Always young for his leagues, Jeremy Rivas looks for his bat to catch up with his glove. ($) https://t.co/p1chx6Y459 pic.twitter.com/PmkCkxOhNM
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) November 24, 2023
At no. 45 in The Cardinal Nation’s #STLCards prospect countdown for 2024 is an underrated outfielder who does everything well. Matt Koperniak has reached Memphis with a ceiling of a fourth outfielder in the majors. FREE article. https://t.co/GIQK4nfgW2 pic.twitter.com/sQJjkuncQ0
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) November 25, 2023
As I read the article on Koperniak, what kept going through my mind was how often last season I wished the Cardinals had a disciplined bat on the bench who could be counted on to at least put the ball in play. And one whose is playable enough on defense that there would not be reluctance to pull him off the bench in a key situation, for fear of what would happen after the fact when he’s out there on defense. Game situations often arise where the low probabilities associated with an all or nothing type are not ideal. The Cardinals have had no answer to that a lot of the time. And we always seem to have either all or nothings or poor defenders as options. Something falling between an O’Neill and a Burleson would be useful.
Reading about Koperniak, he does seem like one of the “high floor” candidates that does pretty well with the Cardinals. Not exciting, just quietly productive.
A bit too far down…. wouldn’t you say. If we have 44 prospects ranking higher than Koperniak we’re in better shape than I thought.
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If we have 44 prospects ranking higher than Koperniak we’re in better shape than I thought.
As awkward as it is to say, Koperniak’s problem is that he doesn’t have a sexy tool to ooh and aah over. As was suggested in the write up, his tools are solid but unexciting. I have long noticed that to excel in the ranking game one must have a sexy stand out tool that can be slobbered over. You end up touting a Burleson who leads AAA in hitting but is unplayable and get rid of a Lane Thomas.
What’s a ‘sexy stand out tool that can be slobbered over’ look like?
You’ll know it when you see it!
I like to look at the player evaluations in the articles that accompany the season opening TCN Top Prospects list that are a ready quick reference. They also help illustrate what I am talking about. Look at Burleson’s article, which is behind the pay wall, and Walker’s, which isn’t. There are a dozen or more paragraphs carrying on about Burleson’s hit tool and about Walker’s power and arm tools. But then reality happens in the form of a season’s worth of game stats. In 117 games Walker put up zero WAR and Burleson put up -0.5 WAR in 107 games. You can contrast that with a player like Palacios, who surely has never had a tool worthy of slobber. He put up +0.5 WAR in 32 games, and honestly, is probably one of our better options for inclusion in the starting outfield along with Noot and Walker. +0.5 in 32 games ia a pace that would be around 2 and a hlf over a season. That is what Arenado and Gorman put up, and is way better than Zero or negative. It illustrates what happens when you get fixated on a stand out tool.
That brings the conversation back to Koperniak. The article on him in the current rollout of this year’s TCN top prospects list is free to all. Here is a quote:
“Koperniak doesn’t really excel in one area but he’s also not bad in any, either. He doesn’t have a ton of power, but he does have some. He makes a lot of contact. He’s not a super disciplined hitter but he doesn’t chase a ton. He’s not a great outfielder but he’s solid. He fits into the greater-than-the-sum-of-his-parts mold by simply doing everything well.”
And my point was that he is the type of player we need on the bench in the 4th-5th OF role, instead of the standout tool guy who is essentially unplayable. I am not saying Koperniak is ML ready just now, he is the type, and illustrates the point. Of course, he is not on the Cardinals Top 30 list and, with NDFA pedigree and no sexy tool, he never will be.
Never and always are two words I try very hard to avoid because they usually make me look bad later on. Something to consider…
Attaching great significance to rookie stats, especially that of a 21-year-old in MLB, is not a solid base upon which to build a case. That is, unless one assumes players do not improve, for which there are over 100 years of examples to the contrary.
Also clearly noted in the article is that Koperniak came out in a year in which the draft was only five rounds. Otherwise, he surely would have been selected. Give credit where it is due.
At no. 44 in The Cardinal Nation’s #STLCards 2024 prospect countdown is a 20 y/o RHP who has thrown just 12 2/3 innings in three years of rookie ball. To realize his once-significant upside, Alec Willis must find a way to stay healthy and move ahead. ($) https://t.co/FYK9qSXJE4 pic.twitter.com/2DZntSJS9G
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) November 26, 2023
Caveats and waffling are survival skills for professional commentators, so I don’t have to concern myself with all that. :-}
It would be a decent bet to claim that Koperniak will have more of an MLB career than a majority of the 44 guys who will place above him on the list.
unless one assumes players do not improve, for which there are over 100 years of examples to the contrary.
There are also 100 years of DeJongs and Carlsons.
Everybody here knows I’m not an expert or anything like that. I have been observing the game a long time and one of the things I have especially paid attention to is injury issues with pitchers. In my own mind, I think I have a pretty good feel for how that goes. So when I read through the Willis article I zeroed in on the issue right off the bat.
“Willis told me that he was initially slowed by a forearm issue that did not require surgery. The then 19-year-old righty had changed his motion over the winter but found it wasn’t working for him. More time was required as he reverted to the delivery that got him there.”
It is quite clear that Willis’s arm cannot tolerate what he does to it when he pitches. It is an issue faced by countless pitchers. The answer is to figure out a way to pitch that his arm can tolerate, and then work on being effective pitching that way. It is the only path forward. So it appears he attempted to do that after 2021 and into the 2022 season, but it didn’t work. His arm couldn’t tolerate that either, or he couldn’t be effective or he gave up, whichever. So he did what a lot of them do, he ” reverted to the delivery that got him there”. But it was already known that his arm could not tolerate that delivery, and big surprise, it didn’t. The slight amount of work before shut down tells me that a move to the lighter load of relief work is not going to be an answer.
So, as to the outlook for 2024, the way I would put it is has he come up with a delivery that his arm can tolerate? And can he be effective pitching like that? As BW alluded, the Million Dollars feeds the meter right up to free agency, even if its a wreck up on blocks sitting at the curb, so he still has time.
That brings the conversation back to Koperniak. The article on him in the current rollout of this year’s TCN top prospects list is free to all. Here is a quote:
“Koperniak doesn’t really excel in one area but he’s also not bad in any, either. He doesn’t have a ton of power, but he does have some. He makes a lot of contact. He’s not a super disciplined hitter but he doesn’t chase a ton. He’s not a great outfielder but he’s solid. He fits into the greater-than-the-sum-of-his-parts mold by simply doing everything well.”
Hmmm…. you can change the name to Edman and it still reads true. TCN still underrates him.
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