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Well, one thing’s pretty sure. The Cardinals will be competitive in ’23 and will probably win another NLC title.
Yeah, I had high expectations for Carlson. He looked like he lost some weight to me when I watched him on TV take his rips in the box during the second half of last season. Maybe Holliday will take him to the steakhouse…Haha!
I would love to pull off a trade with Pittsburgh for Brian Reynolds. He would solve so many problems for us. Can play CF, hits for power, modest salary. Of course we would have to give up several top prospects.
I would love to pull off a trade with Pittsburgh for Brian Reynolds. He would solve so many problems for us. Can play CF, hits for power, modest salary. Of course we would have to give up several top prospects.
Can greatly diminish the prospect cost by sending Carlson back as part of the package.
Can greatly diminish the prospect cost by sending Carlson back as part of the package.
Exactly! He is who I had in mind as the headliner for the return package. Maybe Carlson, Burleson, Thompson, and Thomas?
Exactly! He is who I had in mind as the headliner for the return package. Maybe Carlson, Burleson, Thompson, and Thomas?
The trade simulator calls that a slight overpay. I wouldn’t do the trade, but I wouldn’t hate it either necessarily. I think Carlson is a poor man’s Reynolds anyway who remains cheaper.
Yeah I figured there might be a little bit of an “intra-division tax” placed on the trade by the Pirates.
I don’t think anyone has mentioned him, but if you are looking for a potential ace at a lower cost, Andrew Heaney is a great high-risk option. MLBTR has him at Three years, $42MM, which isn’t a bad deal for what you could get out of him.
Also, reliever-wise, I think Chris Martin would be an excellent option. His BB% is fantastic. Plus, being 36-37 years old, he probably gets a 1-2 yr deal at best.
Another reliever I’d like to see them spin the tires on is Carlos Estevez. Martin and Estevez are both really tall too, which gives us a different look as compared to the rest of the bullpen, none of which are above 6’2. Nearly all of our starters are 6’4 or taller though (minus Matz). Woodford is 6’4, but I don’t know where he will fall out at.
MLBTR has Estevez at 3 years, $21MM and Martin at 2 years, $14MM.
Andy Rutschman debuted May 21st, 2022, totaled 470 PA’s and finished 2nd in AL ROY voting. Under the new CBA he is rewarded with a full service year in 22′.
Now apply that to Jordan Walker. I don’t think this is a far fetched scenario. Brendan Donovan just finished 3rd.
If Walker is ready, STL might as well get the full season of PA’s by Walker making the opening day roster, because Walker could follow Rutschmans scenario.
Andy Rutschman debuted May 21st, 2022, totaled 470 PA’s and finished 2nd in AL ROY voting. Under the new CBA he is rewarded with a full service year in 22′.
Now apply that to Jordan Walker. I don’t think this is a far fetched scenario. Brendan Donovan just finished 3rd.
If Walker is ready, STL might as well get the full season of PA’s by Walker making the opening day roster, because Walker could follow Rutschmans scenario.
Not only that, but if he were to finish first, the Cards would net a draft pick (unless that somehow changed). I don’t see why they’d not want to go for it with him.
Top-two Rookie of the Year finishers who were Top 100 prospects on at least two preseason lists at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline are automatically credited with a full service year.
A player who meets the aforementioned prospect criteria, entered the year with less than 60 days of service and spent enough time on the MLB roster to earn a full service year independent of the awards finish would net their team a bonus draft choice with a top-two finish.
Source: ROY Voting on Service Time
CC, using the Rutschman example, yes, BAL lost a season at the end of his club control. His partial season is now a full season.
Will he be demoted for a month in the future to get that season back? TBD? Wouldn’t that be a can-o-worms to open 😄
Usually these are the type of players who get extensions, not always, but it does speed up the process of his free agency by a season.
I think it’s also important to consider Spencer Torkelson’s season, which is an example in the opposite direction. He was a pre-season ROY favorite and consensus top 100 prospect. He fell way short of expectations and ended up getting demoted for around a month and a half in mid-July. Thus, he finished the year with 137 days of service time. He’ll likely be super 2 eligible with an extra/early year of arbitration, but the Tigers will retain the extra year of control now. I think one can argue that with only around 500 career MiLB PA’s that he was rushed. But this is likely more the benefit of hindsight.
Also of consideration is the case of Julio Rodriguez, who skipped AAA entirely (and only had 206 PA in each A+ and AA) but nonetheless went on to win ROY. My understanding is that Rodriguez should net the Mariners an extra amateur draft pick after the first round. He won the roster spot in spring training, which from what I recall, it seemed the Mariner’s were hoping he would do.
It’s entirely possible that Walker could go either of these routes (Rutschman, Torkelson, or Rodriguez). They all represent different pros and cons. It’s also worth saying that probably the most likely scenario in terms of pure odds is that if you call up Walker on opening day, he plays adequately enough to stay on the team but not good enough to finish as ROY winner (so doesn’t net a draft pick) or bad enough to be demoted (to secure extra year of control).
The tricky situation for the Cardinals, as opposed to SEA, BAL, DET is that they are building a team that is expected to compete for the division title from the get go. In terms of roster construction, this is a little bit more of a challenging situation to be in as they want to have their roster pretty settled going into spring training. Of course they can make trades later, if necessary, but for me, I’m curious if they are willing to build their roster for next year around the hope/expectation that Walker is indeed ready to be the starting RF on opening day.
I’m curious if they are willing to build their roster for next year around the hope/expectation that Walker is indeed ready to be the starting RF on opening day.
Most assessments I have heard of place the 2022 Cards well up in offensive rankings and well down in pitching rankings. My hope is that offseason roster reconfiguration has in mind addressing that reality.
One scenario could have offense related retooling limited to shuffling in house personnel, possibly including Walker. In that case, money and talent expenditures could be aimed at addressing the pitching shortfall. I do think we need to remember that at this time last year Gorman was the consensus #1 prospect and we were salivating over the impact his bat would have in 2022.
It appears to me that Walker has the hitting tools and the arm to be a major leaguer now. Is his ability to play RF(which I think is his best-projected position) given his limited reps, good enough to be the everyday right fielder for the Cardinals next year? Now, that doesn’t mean he is a finished product that won’t make mistakes but rather is he ready to begin the journey?
All the whoop=de=do about Walker sounds an awful lot like last year, just insert the name Gorman. Hope the result is not the same.
CIF, exactly.
There will always be a hole in a swing and a vulnerability in an approach, and MLB opponents will find them and exploit them. Whether and when the hitter will effectively respond is an unknown until it happens. Sometimes an effective response is almost immediate, sometimes not. Sometimes the sophomore year brings an effective response. Sometimes the sophomore year brings effective exploitation of holes and vulnerabilities that became apparent once a year’s data and video were at hand.
There is a difference between assessing that a prospect has the tools, and chiseling the assumed results in stone. The Gormans can fail and the Donovans succeed. Walker is not immune to this reality.
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