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Also, before I forget… Dan O’Dowd closed the Fall Stars Game broadcast with a prediction that Jordan Walker is the opening day RF in STL in 2023. He’s convinced Walker is ready.
I don’t think it would be good to skip Walker over AAA entirely, but I’m not the boss. If the Cards think Walker is ready without a stop in AAA, then I would think they will trade O’Neill somehow. Probably start out with Noot, Carlson, Walker. I am thinking they will want to stick with Noot and Donovan at the top of the order due to the high OBP. Gorman will have to get ABs filling in at 2B, 3B and some DH. His D is not exceptional so he will need to hit himself back into a regular spot in the lineup, and prove he’s more than a platoon player. Also, if they think Walker is ready, then the lineup looks better and they could hold off on bringing in an offense capable catcher and give Herrera another year to come around.
I’m not sure I understand why everyone thinks Nootbaar is the answer. A career .231 hitter. He’s a platooner at the best.
Not sure if Noot is the answer, but he has the look of a guy who will be better as he plays more.
Carlson should get better also, and O’Neill has been better so there is room for more production.
I hope the Cardinals have a lot of money to spend this offseason. It looks like the Cardinals only have 3 starting caliber position players.
Noot is the answer until somebody comes along who can do better than .340 OBP for a top of lineup slot. Ollie seemed to settle on him leading off. I think they like the arm in right also. Gorman’s OBP was .300, same as Knizner. That doesn’t work.
I would highly recommend reading this article. It helps get a handle on the complexities of the payroll.
Any conversation about #Stlcards payroll rightly includes criticism, questions, and confusion. This year, with deferred money (how much?) and Arenado's contract (cash from Colorado?), there is added complexity.
I get it. Tried to cut through the clutter: https://t.co/FP1u3Unrs0
— Derrick Goold (@dgoold) November 10, 2022
I like the picture better than the article. One’s a millionare and one’s a jillionaire…Insofar as a fun job goes, I’d rather be the millionare. What I’m driving at, is who wants their name associated with an Arby’s?
A few excerpts from Goold but the entire article is worth a read:
Summary: Cardinals are aiming to get back on the upward curve they had planned before the pandemic, one that would take their 2023 opening day, 26-man roster close to $183 million. That is right in the $180 million to $185 million range that’s possible to open 2023, per sources.
Discussing payrolls is tricky because there are many sources out there, and not all of them use the same structure to arrive at their estimates. Some use 40-man roster payments. Some focus on a 26-man roster. Some go with the known salaries, estimate the arbitration salaries, and do not include the players who make around the minimum, or estimate those salaries, too. That leaves you, the reader, with a lot of numbers dancing in the conversation.
• The Cardinals signed Adam Wainwright to a one-year, $17.5-million contract for 2023. That contract does include $10 million in deferred money, but the entirety of that deferred money does not come off the payroll. It has to be paid now, so that MLB, the union, and the Cardinals know the money will be there when it’s owed. If there is any rebate it’s related to the present-day value of that money. So, say a player has money deferred, it’s possible slightly less will count against the payroll – whatever present-day value will secure, say, the $10 million is there when owed.
• Simply put, deferral money counts against the payroll in the year it is earned, not the year down the road when it is paid.
• MLB Trade Rumors and Baseball Prospectus’ Cot’s are good places to go for arbitration salary estimates. Cot’s currently pegs Jordan Montgomery for a $9.5 million salary in the arbitration process. MLB Trade Rumors estimates a $10.1 million salary for the lefty.
Using estimates from sources, reporting, and comparable players I put together a 24-man roster for the Cardinals, leaving room for a catcher and a bat, as their shopping list suggests. I used all of the above information to reach an estimate of about $164.5 million committed money at the moment, give or take based on pre-arb and arb salaries.
There is room to grow.
And hopefully, with this info, you have a sense how much.
There is also a lot of info about how the Arenado contract is structured and other items that I didn’t include in the excerpts. Bottom line is Goold expects a payroll in the $180M-$185M range, which is what I had in mind. He already has the Cardinals around $164 but I have it around $149. The difference may be how the Arenado money is counted.
So there is 20mil available per Goold.
There is another 14mil in non-tenders, IMO, but we will see how attached the FO is to Flaherty, Hudson, Reyes and Stratton.
They didn’t seem too attached to Wong.
Didn’t Derrick Goold once make Tony LaRussa sad for composing an article that the HOF manager felt was disrespectful to the Cub’s baseball organization? Or was that someone else? Whoever it was, TLR didn’t take to it too well and his sadness turned to anger and he let it be known. I’m certain LaRussa never had any issues with Joe Strauss, so I can only guess Goold foolishly wrote the article. At any rate, the best thing I’ve ever heard from a presser was, “If it’d been a cheeseburger, he’d have caught it.”
They didn’t seem too attached to Wong.
Edman had hit .300 in 2019 so they probably figured they had a minimum wage guy to replace Wong.
Probably, and then Cardinal luck produced a homegeown Tommy Edman. So far, he outclasses Wong by 2 to 1. Clearly the superior ballplayer. The Redbirds got lucky once again.
Some players maintain high level performance once they get up around 30 years old and beyond, but mostly the trajectory will be a downward slope from that point. Wong was 30 or thereabouts. Getting expensive and starting to slip. Edman was young and cheap.
Guys like DeJong and O’Neill are getting to the point where a downslope is the more likely future. Flaherty is 27 and Hudson is 28, this is prime time for them and they are both struggling with injuries and performance. There is no reason to expect a bright future from any of them. Its just a hope and a prayer and an ever shortening runway.
I think Hudson will be tendered. He got his IP in (2022) and next season will be farther from his injury. I think he’s estimated at less than 3mil. Whether he gets traded or not remains to be seen.
Seems like the FO has always provided him with his opportunities and passed on others.
Johnny knows he can get something nice in return for a RHP like Hudson. He has plenty of talent and money to spend.
There is another 14mil in non-tenders, IMO, but we will see how attached the FO is to Flaherty, Hudson, Reyes and Stratton.
JJ, I think Reyes and Stratton could be non-tender candidates but no way on Hudson and Flaherty. Hudson is still cheap and could be a good trade chip. Flaherty is kind of like O’Neill in that the injuries are frustrating but there is enough talent there to take a chance on that kind of modest salary. I suppose the same could be said for Reyes except that his injury history is much more extensive so it would be reasonable to think he may never be available on a consistent basis. They are already saying he won’t be available on opening day.
Reyes, Hudson, Stratton should all be gone. Give Woodford more of an opportunity, as he certainly made the most of it last year!
Hudson could be gone via trade. Why would you give up someone like him for free when you could get something in return?
Cardinals, Cubs plan payroll increases. When will NL Central competitiveness rise, too? https://t.co/9warlB9CxW
— STL Cardinals News (@STLCardsNews) November 10, 2022
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