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Q&A from John Denton of MLB.com.
Which players will be free agents?
José Quintana, who helped the Cardinals turn around their season following his Aug. 1 acquisition from the Pirates, is the Cardinals’ most prominent free agent, and the club would love to have him back if the price is right. He allowed just one home run after coming over to the Cardinals. Corey Dickerson had a wildly erratic first season in St. Louis, but he ultimately proved to be a veteran the franchise could count on late in the year. The franchise needs a lefty option at DH, but the odds are low that Dickerson returns.Which players have contract options?
The Cardinals had more than a few tense days when Nolan Arenado contemplated opting out of his contract. Could the Southern California native — and offseason resident — have been thinking about staying home full-time to play for the Dodgers or Angels? President John Mozeliak traveled to Southern California to talk over the future of the franchise with Arenado, and clubhouse cornerstones Paul Goldschmidt and Adam Wainwright lobbied the superstar to stay in St. Louis. Ultimately, Arenado informed the Cardinals of his plans to stay, meaning he could wear birds on a bat across his chest for five more seasons.Who might be a non-tender candidate, and when does the club have to make that decision?
The talented but oft-injured Alex Reyes — who missed all of 2022 with a frayed labrum — is eligible for arbitration, but that’s not likely to happen, according to Mozeliak. The 2021 All-Star isn’t likely to pitch again until the middle of the 2023 season at the earliest, so the Cardinals likely won’t tender Reyes a contract before the Nov. 18 deadline.Which players need to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being exposed to the Dec. 7 Rule 5 Draft?
The Cardinals caught a break in 2022 when the Rule 5 Draft was canceled following the lockout, allowing them to hold on to some of their raw talent. This time around, players must be added to the 40-man roster by Nov. 15.The Cardinals made a couple of moves this week to free up roster spots. The retirements of Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina became official, while St. Louis outrighted Kodi Whitley and Kramer Robertson to Triple-A Memphis. Drew VerHagen (hip surgery) should come off the 60-day injured list and go on the roster. Lefty Connor Thomas, a standout during the Arizona Fall League, likely pitched his way onto the 40-man roster, while slugging catcher Pedro Pages could find himself there as well. Moisés Gómez, who set a Cardinals Minor League record by smashing 39 home runs, could finally earn a roster spot. The intriguing Inohan Paniagua, who quickly rose from Palm Beach to Peoria, could receive roster protection as well.
Who are the players the Cardinals might target in free agency?
Mozeliak was adamant the club would add a catcher. Signing Willson Contreras would give them a bat, but it will likely take $16 million a year to do so. Signing Tucker Barnhart or trading for Oakland’s Sean Murphy are more likely options. The Cards aren’t likely to enter the Carlos Correa/Trea Turner/Xander Bogaerts/Dansby Swanson shortstop sweepstakes with Tommy Edman on the roster and prospect Masyn Winn on the way. Protection for Goldschmidt and Arenado — something provided previously by Pujols — is another priority. J.D. Martinez, Nelson Cruz, Jorge Soler or Andrew McCutchen might be options.
Which players might the Cardinals dangle in potential trades?
The Cardinals need the pop Tyler O’Neill can provide, but they were exhausted by his numerous injuries. Dakota Hudson could start, and Jordan Hicks could close for many MLB teams, and they might get those chances. All three are due arbitration raises.https://www.mlb.com/cardinals/news/cardinals-offseason-hot-stove-faq-2022-2023
If there was a plan for Winn to go to the outfield, they’d have started it already. As they haven’t, he’s going to continue to be the SS of the future.
As far as the need to play in Memphis, we’ve seen it proven many times (including in Atlanta this year) that sometimes, players don’t need any time at the AAA level to step in and be productive MLB players. I want the best team in St Louis and if that includes Walker as the starting RF from opening day, then let’s go with that. I doubt Winn is the best SS from Spring Training, but he could be ready fast.
I think Carlson and O’Neill will be the 2 key factors to whether or not the OF is a productive one in ’23. I still like Donovan placed at 2B and Eddie at SS. Perhaps Gorman can find a home in LF if he hits and have O’Neill move over to RF. As far as the rotation, I’d be surprised if the Redbirds throw a substantial amount of money for what could be termed an upgrade to SP’ing. Too risky of a proposition for an ownership group that made their fortunes in the areas of investment firms and holding companies. The investment strategies of these types of outfits strongly tend toward sure things as opposed to the right or left arms of pitchers.
25 – I know that your enamored with Winn, but he’s not even listed in the Top 10 SS prospects on mlb.com.
Seems like there are really only 4 FA outfielders worth going after – Pederson, Benintendi, Nimmo, and Peralta.
I like Confort as an OF sign Because it is probably only a one year Deal. Bellinger also may look for a short term Deal tô improve his value
bccran said:
25 – I know that your enamored with Winn, but he’s not even listed in the Top 10 SS prospects on mlb.com.
The no. 10 SS prospect is ranked no. 32 overall. That says nothing about Winn and the Cardinals. All it says is there are a lot of good SS prospects across MLB. I am guessing Winn will move up based on his AFL.
Edman was never among the top 10, either. And so what?
Very ironic a Cardinal prospect site is loaded with trade talk of our farmhands, and the FA has-beens which would replace them.
Itchy for the next Arozarena, Gallen or Alacantra? Careful what you wish for!
There is a very good chance none of our opening day starting rotation will be players we drafted or developed. Mikolas, Matz, Montogomry, Wainwright ( AAA in Cards org), and probably Quintana or another acquisition. There is also a pretty good chance none of our opening day 4,5,6 hitters will be home grown. But we love our prospects. They’ll be fine.
Edman wasn’t hyped like Winn is hyped. No wonder Edman wasn’t in the top 10 SS prospects. But Winn is super hyped by Cardinal fans, and yet not in the top 10 per pundits.
Winn is super hyped by Cardinal fans, and yet not in the top 10 per pundits.
There isn’t much reason for a guy hitting .258 in The Texas league to be on a national top 10 list.
Edman wasn’t hyped like Winn is hyped. No wonder Edman wasn’t in the top 10 SS prospects. But Winn is super hyped by Cardinal fans, and yet not in the top 10 per pundits.
Are you saying that Cardinal fans have an influence on who is in the MLB top 10/top30/top100? Aren’t these the same “pundits” who a lot of fans on this site say are wrong in their rankings year after year?
BTW, Edman batted .247 in his first year in the Texas League.
Edman had 3 years playing SS for Stanford. Was voted the
defensive SS of the year in the PAC 12 his draft year.Winn was a high school kid, who’s first full year as a professional was 2022.
I really hope Winn is going to be a great Cardinal someday. But he has a long way to go.
One thing to consider with whether Walker starts the year in STL is the new collective bargaining agreement. If he finishes top 2 in rookie of the year, he gets a full year of service regardless. The other (and more intriguing to me) item is the draft pick compensation. This one there is less public consensus of what the actual wording is.
Supposedly if a player with less than 60 days of service time and who is on at least two top 100 lists (Baseball America, ESPN, MLB) stays on the MLB roster all year (so theoretically this might apply to Burleson too), the team can earn an additional amateur draft pick at the end of the first round. The most “realistic” one is to win the rookie of the year voting (I’ve also seen top 3 ROY finish, which would be a little more realistic, but I’m not sure about the CBA wording). They can also trigger a bonus draft pick, if they place in the top 3 in MVP or Cy Young voting any year before they are eligible for arbitration. Any player can only generate one pick for their team (so if someone went supernova and won ROY then placed in MVP/CY in subsequent years, they would still only generate one total draft pick, not one each year is my understanding).
So, if you think Walker might be ready, and you value these extra picks (especially as the Cards don’t seem to be included in the competitive balance pool any more), it makes sense to start Walker in STL in hopes that he takes off. If he really struggles, you can always send him down later in the year, which would mean that he wouldn’t reach a full year of service time anyway. (Sending him down if he struggles would disqualify him from getting a draft pick if he would finish in top 3 mvp voting in any subsequent pre-arbitration year, but I think that is a pretty unrealistic expectation).
The way it seems this “Prospect Promotion Incentive” is designed will actually only impact very few players. Perhaps that now that there is precedent, it could be expanded in future CBAs.
Anyhow, there’s a lot we probably still need to learn about the new CBA, but this is another lens to look at the Walker to STL decision.
Christopher, thank you for sharing that. When I get some time, I will look into this as I am curious, too. It is also nice to talk about something else.
It seems like there are conflicting objectives. Would the Cards value a supplemental draft pick in 2024 more than losing a year of Walker’s services later?
Seems like they might prefer to wait to bring him up, but that is a quick response without lots of thought.
No one who hadn’t seen Edman play hyped him on this site. The conversation at the time was he was simply an afterthought. I remember feeling unsure if I should even post that everyone will ok with Tommy if for some reason, he had to play. I watched him a lot at Springfield and kept thinking he wasn’t terrible at all. I never thought Tommy was a gold glove waiting to happen.
It would seem Winn may be much more than some are crediting him with being. Winn is the best short stop prospect this site has ever seen. It’s a fairly low bar, but he is worth getting excited about.Yep, no more Big League baseball action for 5 months. I genuinely feel that the best of all the teams that qualified for the ’22 post-season won the WS. I don’t guess there’s any such thing as a perfect team, but the Astros are close. They do everything well. I watched all the games and the Astros feature excellence in all areas of the game. SP and BP are first rate. They hit for average and enough power and they put the baseball into play. Defense, speed, you name it. Not a weak area that I could detect. I hope the Redbird brain trust watched a couple of these games and patterns their “philosophy” accordingly. Heck, maybe they’ll try to hire Dusty…Haha!
bccran:
There’s one way to make that possible but it will cost and it won’t come from any of the prospects or the players they have now. It will come from the outside and it will cost money. They said they are going to raise the payroll. Okay, that’s fine but it needs to be a VERY significant raise. Say 220 million. If they try and piece meal it again then look for a division title and an early exit from the playoffs.
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