Donovan trade thread

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  • #298611
    blingboy
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    We should remember that neither of them needs to be traded this winter. By the deadline at the latest. There is risk in waiting, of course. Injury risk, and performance risk in the case of NA. NA might play well and increase his value also. An advantage in waiting could be we see how what we’ve got is panning out and try to backfill.

    #298613
    Cardinals27
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    Connie is interesting as a switch pitcher, but I think the Cards can do better in a trade. But that does bring up a good question. If he pitches to a switch hitter, how would that work? I assume the pitcher would have to declare which arm he is going to use, and then the hitter would follow suit by batting the opposite side?

    #298614
    Cardinals27
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    And Sloan looks like a future ace. He has size, multiple plus pitches, and velocity. So if I was Seattle I wouldn’t trade him.

    #298632
    LACardFan
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    I assume the pitcher would have to declare which arm he is going to use, and then the hitter would follow suit by batting the opposite side?

    Yes, the pitcher has to declare first.

    #298634
    LACardFan
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    If Bregman doesn’t sign with Boston, then Arenado and Donovan will both be offered to Boston, IMO.

    If the Red Sox don’t get Bregman, I think their first option will be Isaac Paredes. But Houston likely wants Payton Tolle or Connelly Early, and I think Boston would be more likely to give up Witherspoon, since he is farther away from the majors.

    #298637
    HARMONY55
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    Anyway, if the Cardinals can get a package from Boston that includes Witherspoon, that would be my preference.

    But if Seattle puts the best package together, and it is headlined by Cijntje, I do think it would make the farm system better and would be rooting for the Cardinals pitching gurus to show us what they can do.

    Kyson Witherspoon and Jurrangelo Cijntje provide interesting comps as recent No. 15 overall draft picks who are now ranked No. 89 and No. 90 on MLB.com’s Top 100 prospect list.

    Witherspoon and Cijntje each made 16 starts in his final collegiate season at SEC powerhouses Oklahoma and Mississippi State, respectively. Witherspoon gained all-SEC honors while Cijntje did not.

    Baseball Trade Values currently assigns Witherspoon a surplus value of $17.7 million and Cijntje a surplus value of $14.5 million.

    #298646
    gscottar
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    Anyway, if the Cardinals can get a package from Boston that includes Witherspoon, that would be my preference.

    Absolutely! I would take Witherspoon all day everyday.

    #298647
    gscottar
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    If Bregman doesn’t sign with Boston, then Arenado and Donovan will both be offered to Boston, IMO.

    I still think lumping Donovan and Arenado into the same deal is a mistake. It dilutes Donovan’s trade value tremendously. We need prosepcts more then we do more payroll savings. Are we trying to get down to a $75M payroll?

    #298651
    CardsFanInChiTown
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    Bregman signs
    Suarez signs
    Arenado traded

    I don’t see how it doesn’t happen in that exact order

    #298652
    gscottar
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    It depends on who ends up with Arenado. I doubt if the Angels are waiting on Bregman and Suarez because they know neither player would sign there unless it was a massive overpay, especially Bregman.

    #298655
    HARMONY55
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    As a nearly 29-year-old with four years of MLB experience, Brendan Donovan projects to a narrower range of outcomes than does Seattle infielder Cole Young, a 22-year-old with only 77 games under his MLB belt.

    Seattle is in a win-now mode and Donovan offers a higher floor than Young does for the 2026 season. At the same time, Young may offer the higher ceiling in 2026 and beyond.

    Donovan and Young offer some similarities as lefthanded contact hitters. In the minors, Donovan walked in 12.2 percent and struck out in 17.8 percent of his 1,031 plate appearances. At much younger ages in the minors, Young walked in 13.2 percent and struck out in 14.4 percent of his 1,473 plate appearances.

    In 2,006 plate appearances at the MLB level, Donovan has a 9.1 percent walk rate and 14.5 percent strikeout rate. Over 257 plate appearances in his disappointing 2025 MLB debut, Young had a 10.9 percent walk rate and 18.3 percent strikout rate. Young’s encouraging platoon splits resembled those of Donovan’s rookie season, not Donovan’s more concerning splits of recent seasons.

    In the end the Mariners are unlikely to trade for Donovan … and the Cardinals may find a decent return elsewhere.

    #298671
    blingboy
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    Donovan’s 119 OPS+, ability to hit up in the lineup if needed, and defensive versatility at a high level will appeal to somebody looking to put gold plate around the edges of an already good win now roster. I think Bloom is looking to work a deal involving multiple players going both ways, that accomplishes multiple objectives for the Cardinals. We know he is looking for young pitching and young but MLB or MLB ready RH hitting OF, and to move a bad contract. It may or may not happen before opening day.

    #298696
    CardsFanInChiTown
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    I tried building a bandwagon to trading Donnie and Jojo and maybe Noot together for a better package of two top prospects. Can we all jump on?

    Donnie Jojo and Noot for River Ryan and Emil Morales is still my hope. Someone with the TV calculator thing possibly put that in? They had BP issues, so I’d thrown in O’Brien if needed.

    #298697
    LACardFan
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    I tried building a bandwagon to trading Donnie and Jojo and maybe Noot together for a better package of two top prospects. Can we all jump on?

    Nope. The Cardinals will get more prospects by splitting them up. Each of those guys will bring back 2-3 prospects on their own.

    #298698
    LACardFan
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    Bregman signs
    Suarez signs
    Arenado traded

    I don’t see how it doesn’t happen in that exact order

    I think you mean Donovan gets traded in your third line. Boston/Bregman is clearly holding up the Donovan trade market.

    Cardinal fans need to accept that Arenado is now one of the worst third basemen in the league, and should not in any way be impacted by the free agent market for the top free agent third baseman.

    #298700
    jj-cf-stl
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    The Orioles (.296) had the worst obp at leadoff last season and the Giants (.304) were third worse. The Rangers and Mariners came in at a .311 leadoff obp, .050 points under Donovans career OBP. The Tigers (.317) could use a fixture at the top of their lineup.

    #298701
    jj-cf-stl
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    HARMONY55, Donovan is our Mr. Fix it for the Cardinals and many of these metrics don’t capture his glue value that makes a roster better. That type usage, not even knowing his position, our batting order spot can be pretty random, daily.

    The numbers might say 2B is more valuable than LF, but putting out roster fires in LF, 3B, etc., should bring extra value.

    Donovans numbers can withstand super utility duty and he went from batting cleanup to leading off during this season, another fix it job. The Donovan numbers don’t capture the teams added value, but they do solidify his numbers as “under most all circumstances”, daily.

    #298702
    stlcard25
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    Cardinal fans need to accept that Arenado is now one of the worst third basemen in the league

    Can you give any sort of reasoning behind this? While I don’t see him as being a key cog on a pennant winner, there’s a big gap between averageish 3B and “one of the worst third basement in the league.” By my eye, he’s average to slightly above with the glove and a bit below average with the bat. Add in a little age regression and I could see him being a 1-2 WAR (slightly below average) starter on an Angels or Cardinals level team , or a defensive guy/platoon player on a better team.

    #298705
    KeepComingBack
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    Can you give any sort of reasoning behind this?

    25 I think he meant worst for the Cardinals. He has no purpose here. In fact negative purpose. But your evaluation of him looks about right.

    #298707
    blingboy
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    I tried building a bandwagon to trading Donnie and Jojo and maybe Noot together for a better package

    I think the reason none of them are gone yet is BDW is determined not to be left holding the NA contract. Once the chips are moved, Bill’s money is the only way to off the NA contract.

    #298708
    LACardFan
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    Can you give any sort of reasoning behind this? While I don’t see him as being a key cog on a pennant winner, there’s a big gap between averageish 3B and “one of the worst third basement in the league.”

    Where does he rank on the Fangraphs Leaderboard for third basemen?

    Does that look “average”?

    #298710
    LACardFan
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    “It’s frustrating for me because I haven’t performed well,” Soler said. “And I need to play to perform. And it’s kind of frustrating to me because I want to play to put up some good numbers, and so far the injury issues haven’t let me play enough.”

    That is why the Dodgers WAR model adds WAR to players who play multiple positions.

    #298711
    jj-cf-stl
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    I’d rather see us pay Arenado 14mil by this deadline, rather than dfa 13mil Soler by the deadline.

    Arenado lost .055 pts of BAbip last season, w/a low K rate. I don’t see Nolan crashing as Soler is. PA’s are a concern for both.

    #298722
    HARMONY55
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    Donnie Jojo and Noot for River Ryan and Emil Morales is still my hope. Someone with the TV calculator thing possibly put that in?

    Basebal Trade Values gives Brendan Donovan, JoJo Romero and Lars Nootbaar a combined surplus value of about $48 million while assigning River Ryan and Emil Morales a surplus value of about $31 million.

    https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades

    Ryan is a 27-year-old with five years of team control, who hasn’t pitched since 2024, while Morales is the 100th-ranked prospect at MLB.com.

    According to BTV, that Cardinal package would be a significant overpay for Ryan and Morales.

    #298723
    LACardFan
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    Oops. I made an error last night. I meant to quote this section from jj’s post when addressing the Dodgers WAR model:

    The numbers might say 2B is more valuable than LF, but putting out roster fires in LF, 3B, etc., should bring extra value.

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