Outfield Dilemma …

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  • #124849
    AvatarSoonerinNC
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    I think we open with Thomas, Bader and Fowler. O’Neill and Dean seeing action frequently. Bader will be kept for late inning defense and base running if he doesn’t get his hitting act together. Edman can see action.

    Ravelo may edge out one of the young guys or Dean but I don’t see that happening.

    #124853
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    bccran said:

    I’m all for the young guys. Just don’t think Bader, O’Neill, and Thomas are the answer…

    You have been very consistent in this point of view. What I don’t get is what you reasonably expect can be done about it? The team has pretty much decided its structure for at least the first half (whenever that is). It is not like we are still in the off-season, with free agents and trades a realistic possibility.

    Other than waiting and eventually watching, what could be done at this point?

    #124858
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    I think we open with Thomas, Bader and Fowler. O’Neill and Dean seeing action frequently. Bader will be kept for late inning defense and base running if he doesn’t get his hitting act together. Edman can see action.

    Ravelo may edge out one of the young guys or Dean but I don’t see that happening.

    Switching O’Neill in for Thomas, I agree with you.

    #124878
    Avatarbccran
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    BW – we I can do is pass along what we both heard from Mo – that the Cards are open for business every day of the year. That the end of Spring Training is an artificial deadline. If these outfielders don’t hack it, does Mo have to wait for the trade deadline? Or can he pull off a deal at any time up until the deadline. We have ample pitching to offer in a trade.

    #124883
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    bccran said:

    If these outfielders don’t hack it, does Mo have to wait for the trade deadline? Or can he pull off a deal at any time up until the deadline…

    I know you already know what follows, but because many may not, I will repeat it here.

    It takes two to tango.

    One team cannot trade without a willing partner.

    With the 2020 season likely shortened, I saw an article just this morning guessing that some teams not expected to make the playoffs could slip in because fewer games will be played. It is an intriguing idea.

    If more teams perceive they are in the hunt, that will narrow the trade market, both in timing and potential number of sellers.

    Would that stop all trades? Of course not, but like in so many other areas, we are in uncharted waters in 2020.

    #124884
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Take 2019 as an example. Most teams had played at least 90 games by the All-Star Break.

    Had the season ended then, two of the eventual five NL playoff teams would have been different.
    In – Cubs, Phillies
    Out – Cards, Brewers

    At that time, 11 of the 15 NL teams were within just 2.5 games of a playoff berth. Two more were within five and only two were probably out of the hunt.

    Let’s guess they get in 100 games this season. The situation could be very similar to the above, with most everyone still having a chance until the end. Pulling off impactful trades in this kind of environment would be more difficult.

    #124899
    Avatarbccran
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    Seems like there still could be teams that will be willing to trade a high priced player in his arbitration years (or a year leading up to arbitration). Or a veteran who has several years to go on his contract and they would like to trade for talented younger, cheaper players. Players like Sosa, Knizner, Gomber, Woodford, Oviedo, Rondon, Siejas, Liberatore, etc. could be attractive to those teams.

    #125140
    Avatar1982 willie
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    I don’t see the cardinals making any moves far as trades go. til we get into the season anyway. I do think a shortened season does bring a lot of things into play. Definitely cant afford to get off to a slow start.

    #125142
    bicyclemikebicyclemike
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    I like both O’Neill and Thomas – not as high on Bader although his glove plays. But we need to see them get 400-500 ABs in a season to get a better picture.

    #125144
    Avatarmspaid
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    Did I miss Junior saying he would take on a huge contract this year?

    #125146
    Avatarbccran
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    I believe he said he wanted to keep payroll in check, unless an exceptional deal came around. Quite simply, IMHO, they need a Berkman, Beltran, Walker, etc. – proven veteran type player of that ilk in the 2020 OF.

    #125147
    Avatarmudville
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    I can’t say, specifically, when and where he said it, but I remember that DeWitt left open the possibility of taking on a huge contract by saying that he would take on some additional payroll for the ‘right player’. Arenado is still out there, and supposedly, he and Bidrich, the Rockies’ GM, are not speaking to each other. For a deal to happen, the Rockies would have to take Fowler or Carpenter back in order give the Cardinals some payroll relief, and that has been said to be a major obstacle. I have seen Arenado’s name being mentioned, albeit rarely, as a possibility by at least three respected pundits in St. Louis….Hummel, Karracker, and either Goold or Frederickson. Some say that the Cardinals’ willingness to take on Stanton’s contract back in the 2017-2018 offseason proves that they are willing to take on a huge contract. There are others that say, with the Stanton contract now starting to look like a bad contract, a contract like Arenado’s is just too much risk for the Cardinals. It would seem that the current crisis, with the damage it’s been doing to our economy, lessens the possibility of the Cardinals taking on a huge contract.

    #125148
    Avatarmudville
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    Carpenter has said that he would play the outfield if asked. He has also said that he would do whatever is best for the organization.

    #125179
    Avatargscottar
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    From what I recall the owner said he anticipates payroll being in the $170M range this year. It is currently at $165M, therefore, I wouldn’t expect any major additions.

    #125181
    Avatar1982 willie
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    the outfield doesn’t have a dilemma in my eyes. Oneil and Thomas on the corner spots. Bader in center. Ravello should be given spot starts along with fowler I guess. I really like ravello off the bench. Obviously with a short season, you cant afford to weather bad prolonged performance so if these guys don’t produce, you have to think about changes. I still feel oneils defense is iffy but he should be given the chance to step it up and if he can really mesh into some great offensive production, I could tolerate some defensive issues.

    #125182
    Avatarbccran
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    O’Neill, Bader, and Thomas, willie? All unproven. None have succeeded yet at the major league level. I wish them well, but do we have to watch windmills? They worked all off season, and yet O’Neill and Bader were the K leaders in the shortened Spring Training.

    #125185
    sheepdawgsheepdawg
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    Watched O’Neil for two and a half years here in Memphis, his defense is sound, not iffy, better than Ozuna. It’s the Ks he needs to work on.

    • This reply was modified 2 weeks, 3 days ago by sheepdawgsheepdawg.
    #125191
    bicyclemikebicyclemike
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    When the Cardinals were not willing to keep Ozuna they basically said the young guys will be given a shot. Thus O’Neill and Thomas are going to play a lot, barring a late deal. O’Neill’s strikeouts do not bother me as much as a lot of people – it comes with the territory in today’s game. I am willing to live through them to see what his power bat can do, and give him the regular left field job for at least a couple of months. Thomas as well in right or center, although I do not know where he is defensively. I think he is good enough to play center, but am not 100% sure. Then you have Bader as a solid defensive backup, with Dex as a guy that can fill in at any outfield spot as well as switch-hit. But he needs to get it going on offense to keep a starting job.

    #125194
    Avatarbccran
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    Mike – Tyler O’Neill has struck out 110 times in 293 plate appearances in his time with the Cardinals. That doesn’t bother you?

    #125196
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    I am not Mike, but here is some additional perspective. While O’Neill’s strikeouts are high, here are three pretty good MLB hitters who are among those who fanned at an even higher rate than O’Neill last season – Joey Gallo, Austin Riley and Miguel Sano.

    Earlier you made comparisons to Grichuk, who has almost 10 times more career plate appearances than O’Neill. In your view, do players ever actually improve or are they always doomed to repeat their past or get worse?

    Let’s take Grichuk’s case. In both of the most recent two seasons, he has dropped more than 5% off his strikeout rate in his peak year (which was in his second MLB season – same place in his career as was O’Neill in 2019).

    So using your comp, why could Grichuk cut his K rate with more experience but O’Neill can’t?

    P.S. If O’Neill reduced his K rate by 5%, instead of being no. 10 in MLB last year, he would have been no. 48 (150 min plate appearances) – and we very likely would not be talking about this.

    • This reply was modified 2 weeks, 3 days ago by Brian WaltonBrian Walton.
    • This reply was modified 2 weeks, 3 days ago by Brian WaltonBrian Walton.
    #125208
    Avatarbccran
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    Please correct me if I’m wrong, but here’s what I have for Grichuk’s K rate since he was drafted –

    2009 – 25%
    2010 – 22%
    2011 – 21%
    2012 – 14%
    2013 – 17%
    2014 – 24%
    2015 – 31%
    2016 – 27%
    2017 – 30%
    2018 – 22%
    2019 – 26%

    #125212
    Avatarbccran
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    BW – Are you sure you want to use Austin Riley as an example of a “pretty good MLB hitter”? I have him as a rookie in 2019, with only 297 plate appearances. His line was .226/.279/.471/.750. I hope this isn’t what we’re looking for from O’Neill. Unless all we care about are dingers.

    #125213
    Avatarforsch31
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    Well, we have a lot of posters claiming Tommy Edman as the next great player with only 326 major league ABs. Not only that but he is “proven”, evidently.

    #125215
    Avatarbccran
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    In 349 plate appearances in 2019 with the Cards, Edman had 17 doubles, 7 triples, and 11 home runs.
    Struck out only 17% of the time.
    Also had 15 stolen bases. Slashed
    .304/.350/.500/.850.

    At Memphis, before being called up, he was .305/.356/.513/.869.

    In 2018, he was .301/.354/.402/.756

    #125216
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Mike – Tyler O’Neill has struck out 110 times in 293 plate appearances in his time with the Cardinals. That doesn’t bother you?

    I’m not Mike, but it doesn’t bother me in the least. Carson Kelly looked awful in his limited playing time with St Louis too, and he turned out fine. Given a full season of at bats, O’Neill will put up a line at least 15% above league average with the bat and play above average defense. That is a quality left fielder, and I consider that his mid point outcome. He has a higher ceiling than any of the outfielders in the system.

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