Outfield Dilemma …

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  • #125217
    Avatarbccran
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    At least 15% above league average with the bat, 25? That would be great. Please show how you arrived at that. Thanks.

    #125219
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    bccran said:

    BW – Are you sure you want to use Austin Riley as an example of a “pretty good MLB hitter”? I have him as a rookie in 2019, with only 297 plate appearances. His line was .226/.279/.471/.750. I hope this isn’t what we’re looking for from O’Neill. Unless all we care about are dingers.

    Well, given that nit picking is the only reply you have to my detailed post about O’Neill and Grichuk, it appears that you accept the big picture point made.

    While Riley is not a proven MLB player yet, he was the no. 22 prospect in MLB prior to last season (per BA), which is more than we can say about any Cardinals hitter in recent years not named Dylan Carlson. (In fact, Riley’s ranking one year ago is very comparable to how Carlson is ranked currently.)

    As I have said before, there is more to player scouting, analysis and projection than just citing slash stat lines at different levels and drawing career comparisons and conclusions based on that.

    #125221
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    At least 15% above league average with the bat, 25? That would be great. Please show how you arrived at that. Thanks.

    O’Neill had wRC+ of 124, 128, 152, 110, 106, and 170 at his full season MiLB stops since 2014 while being young for his level at every one of them. He had a 116 wRC+ as a rookie. Only if you cherry pick his 2019 stats do you come to the conclusion that he’s not going to be at least an above average hitter.

    #125223
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    I’m still trying to figure out how TO is going to be 15% better than the average major league outfielder with the bat.
    That would be great, but I have a hard time seeing it. It’s such a subjective projection.

    #125224
    Avatarbccran
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    MLB – .258/.307/.454/.761/37.5% K rate
    AAA – .267/.339/.554/.894/27.1% K rate
    AA – .287/.366/.506/.871/26.5% k rate
    A+ – .260/.316/.558/.874/30.5% k rate
    A – .247/.322/.460/.788/ 32.2 K rate

    He might settle into MLB with those AAA numbers some day.
    That would be fine, I guess.

    #125238
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    I’m still trying to figure out how TO is going to be 15% better than the average major league outfielder with the bat.
    That would be great, but I have a hard time seeing it. It’s such a subjective projection.

    He was better than that at almost every stop along the way in the minors. There’s a better chance that O’Neill is a batter that good than Carlson is, if you go by their careers so far. How do we know that Carlson isn’t a one year flash in the pan?

    #125241
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    There’s only one thing to do with O’Neill. Start him in left field and let him pay 50 games no matter what he does.

    #125244
    Avatarbccran
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    25 – if you think O’Neill and Carlson are in the same class we don’t have anything to talk about. Not even close.

    #125245
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    25 – if you think O’Neill and Carlson are in the same class we don’t have anything to talk about. Not even close.

    I really can’t understand why you are so down on O’Neill. Or…perhaps you think that Carlson is a surefire superstar. Either way, O’Neill was a top 50 prospect in his own right and has all the tools you’d want in an outfielder…power, speed, and has the ability to actually take a walk (which is a huge difference from Grichuk).

    Carlson looks good but in reality, his most likely outcome is the same as O’Neills…a solid starting outfielder. To expect much more is setting yourself up for disappointment. I personally think an OF of O’Neill-Bader/Thomas-Carlson for the next 4-5 years will produce a few All Stars and some nice defense that should make our pitchers and fans nice and happy. 😁

    #125248
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    I agree. Let’s play him, give him the opportunity he’s been waiting for. He worked on getting his body into baseball shape rather than just ‘shape’ over the offseason. Now we need to find out how it helped him. Mozeliak and the field personnel have all sounded like they are expecting a lot from O’Neill.

    #125253
    Avatarbccran
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    AAA stats last season –

    Player 1.) .337/.401/.635/1.036
    Player 2.) .358/.435/.593/1.028
    Player 3.) .361/.418/.681/1.099
    Player 4.) .268/.352/.460/.812
    Player 5.) .265/.325/.517/.842

    Who’s who?

    #125258
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Fun with slash stat lines.

    I picked a random year in the past for Triple-A Memphis (before the juiced ball).

    Here were the Redbirds hitting leaders that season, listed by OPS (min 200 at-bats).

    Player 1: .323/.422/.579/1.001
    Player 2: .345/.439/.472/.911
    Player 3: .284/.382/.501/.883
    Player 4: .300/.417/.463/.880
    Player 5: .299/.366/.455/.822
    Player 6: .270/.329/.488/.817
    Player 7: .266/.354/.448/.803
    Player 8: .277/.368/.415/.783

    The season? 2011.

    The players?

    Player 1: Tyler Greene
    Player 2: Mark Hamilton
    Player 3: Andrew Brown
    Player 4: Matt Carpenter
    Player 5: Shane Robinson
    Player 6: Nick Stavinoha
    Player 7: Aaron Luna
    Player 8: Adron Chambers

    Q: What does this tell us about their MLB careers then still ahead?

    A: Nothing.

    #125261
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    At least your stats are based on a whole year, Brian. Bccran has picked some guys who played a few games and tried to paint the rest of their career with that brush.

    #125262
    Avatarbccran
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    Gary Laroque has told us that the time for minor leaguers to start showing results is at the AA level. That’s the level they need to start showing their spots. So if we don’t pay attention at least somewhat to how well minor leaguers are doing at Springfield and Memphis, what kind of barometer should we use? Sure, a lot of guys are AAAA type players. But what about the guys who have produced at the AAA level that finally got a chance and did well at the ML level? Some guys who come to mind like Ludwick and Jose Martinez.

    Ludwick was drafted in 1999 and in 2007 was at AAA with the Cardinals at 28 years old. He’d enjoyed two very short stays at the major league level with the Indians and hit .220 both times. He then did well for a year in the Tigers system AAA ion 2006 – hit 28 home runs and drove in 80 in But in 2007, he started out well with Memphis, and the Cardinals gave him a shot with the big club. He came up and hit 14 home runs and drove in 52 in only 339 plate appearances. Then in 2008, he stole the spotlight. Hit .299, homered 37 times, and drove in 113.

    We all know the shortcomings in the field of JMart. Drafted in 2006, he was still in the minors in 2015. Then he finally got a shot with the Cardinals in 2018 and put up a .305/.364/.457/.821 season. Why did he get a shot? Because of how well he did at the minor league level just be fore he came over and after he came over.

    Am I saying that Austin Dean, Randy Arozarena, and
    Dylan Carlson are sure fire successes? No, but it would be interesting to see how they do if they get a real chance. Just like you want for Tyler O’Neill. And Harrison Bader. And Lane Thomas.

    #125263
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Am I saying that Austin Dean, Randy Arozarena, and
    Dylan Carlson are sure fire successes? No, but it would be interesting to see how they do if they get a real chance. Just like you want for Tyler O’Neill. And Harrison Bader. And Lane Thomas.

    I preferred Arozarena to Bader and Thomas, although the team saw it differently. And for what it’s worth, I think Bader and Thomas are average to slightly above players, at best. Dean is a backup, period. Carlson’s ceiling is perennial All Star. O’Neills ceiling is MVP candidate. That’s why he needs a “real chance.”

    #125264
    Avatarbccran
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    Here’s a better picture, 25. Hope this is more objective.
    Comments are welcomed.

    O’Neill –
    AAA – .267/.339/.554/.893
    AA – .287/.366/.506/.872
    A+ – .260/.316/.558/.874

    Tremendous power. Father was Mr. Canada. Tyler grew up lifting weights, so he’s very strong. Now trying to stretch things out and become more pliable. If he cuts down on Ks and hits to all fields he can become a solid MLB starter.
    His power plays to all fields.

    Bader –
    AAA – .275/.345/.465/.810
    AA – .283/.351/.497/.848
    A+ – .301/.364/.505/.869

    Excellent fielder. Struggles at the plate with pitch recognition. Only hit .205 in 2019. Needs to just make contact and hit to all fields to take advantage of his speed.

    Thomas –
    AAA – .270/.342/.472/.815
    AA – .260/.337/.487/.824
    A+ – .252/.318/.375/.693

    2018 was outstanding. Settled back into fairly average
    mode in 2019 after an excellent 2018. MO is high on him, but perhaps too high. Is a fairly skilled all around player – good speed and defense. Has showed some power. Ceiling probably a #4/#5 outfielder.

    Dean –
    AAA – .331/.398/.546/.944
    AA – .269/.327/.419/.746
    A+ – .268/.318/.366/.684

    Improved every year. Could be a decent asset if given a solid chance.

    Arozarena –
    AAA – .292/.379/.466/.845
    AA – .305/.404/.496/.900
    A+ – .275/.333/.472/.805

    Polished Cuban player. Solid in all aspects of his game.
    High energy player. Spark plug type. We will probably miss him.

    Carlson –
    AAA – .361/.418/.681/1.099
    AA – .281/.364/.518/.882
    A+ – .247/.345/.386/.731

    Texas League player of the year in 2019. Selected as one of the best 3 OF prospects in all of MilB by BA (made post season Milb all level All Star Team).

    #125265
    Avatarbccran
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    25 –
    Also, you say the team saw it differently re Arozarena being better than Bader and Thomas. Maybe not. Maybe the Cards saw a tremendous opportunity to land Liberatore and the Rays wouldn’t do the deal unless Arozarena was the one included with JMart.

    #125267
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    the Rays wouldn’t do the deal unless Arozarena was the one included with JMart.

    Agree… I think it wasn’t the Cards offering Arozarena, but rather the Rays choosing him as the guy that they wanted. The Rays gave up a lot in Liberatore and wanted what they got back.

    #125272
    Avatarmudville
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    The Rays were also looking for a RH bat and JMart is one that fits within the Rays budgetary constraints. He fills a hole for them for cheap. IMO, it was a trade that helps both sides.

    #125274
    Avatarbccran
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    It was a trade that helped both sides, but it cost us our best young outfielder not named Carlson.

    #125435
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    I thought that this was an interesting preview of Fowler and worth a read.

    https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2020/3/26/21193377/2020-cardinals-player-preview-dexter-fowler

    #125447
    Avatarbccran
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    Good article. So if DF is no better than a backup outfielder now, who’s going to provide veteran leadership out there in 2020?

    #125450
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Willie McGee.

    #125456
    Avatarbccran
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    Wouldn’t that be great if he was still playing! Since he’s not, we still need a veteran outfield anchor between the lines.

    #125457
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    I guess what you are saying is that you value Fowler’s veteran leadership in the field. Interesting since you are one of those questioning his commitment level. So which is it?

    Or is it Ozuna’s “leadership” on defense that is now missing? I guess we could say he showed the others what NOT to do!

    Seriously, all of them are briefed on how to play the hitters and carry printed cards to remind them. Also, they have coaches waving at them where to position themselves. Please explain why veteran-ness is “needed”. Do the less experienced outfielders not yet know how to play proper defense?

    It seems amazing these young outfielders can even walk and chew gum! They can’t hit and they can’t field, either! 😉

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