Outfield Dilemma …

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  • #125538
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    bc, what site has Qzuna as a 3.2 WAR and Fowler as 0.4 WAR in 2019?

    #125539
    Avatarbccran
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    Fangraphs.

    #125540
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    If that’s overall, it’s not right. Are you sorting by a specific category?

    #125541
    Avatarbccran
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    Sort by position.

    #125542
    Avatarbccran
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    For much of it, I also use ESPN, sorted by position.

    #125543
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    by position doesn’t change the war total in 2019

    #125544
    Avatarbccran
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    In some charts, it shows the player’s full year WAR playing all positions they played. In other charts, it shows what their WAR was when playing each of the positions they played.

    #125545
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    no, better look again, the numbers you quoted are wrong. Ozuna has never been a 3war Cardinal and Fowler didn’t have a 0.4 war season in 19′

    #125546
    Avatarbccran
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    Happy to do that after watching a long video of a 2017 interview of David McCullough talking about American values.

    #125547
    Avatarbccran
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    jj -google “ranking the left fielders fangraphs”. The Cardinals are ranked 5th, and they list Ozuna’s WAR as 3.2.

    #125548
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    I have no idea what you are looking at.

    Fangraphs’ WAR for Ozuna last season was 2.5. He did not play anywhere other than LF. So please explain how 3.2 makes any sense in that context.

    https://www.fangraphs.com/players/marcell-ozuna/10324/stats?position=OF

    It is also 2.5 when sorting by left fielders across MLB.

    https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=lf&stats=bat&lg=nl&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31

    What sent us down this rabbit hole was a disagreement with my statement that Fowler’s 2019 was “not bad”. I made no distinction whatsoever about which position he played in the field, because it was not relevant to the point I made.

    Considering everything, Fowler’s WAR last season was 1.5. That is the value he delivered to the Cardinals. Again, that is 1.5, not 0.4. The difference between “not bad” and “bad”.

    https://www.fangraphs.com/players/dexter-fowler/4062/stats?position=OF

    Same for Fowler when listed among right fielders – 1.5.

    https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=rf&stats=bat&lg=nl&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31

    In the bigger picture, I don’t get what this whole idea of trying to parse out any individual player’s WAR by defensive position is supposed to show, other than to make him look worse (Fowler) or better (Ozuna) than he really was.

    I ask anyone to go to any major stats provider (not just Fangraphs) and show me any player’s season splits page that breaks out his WAR by position played. I checked the sources noted in this discussion and found no evidence of this breakdown – FG, ESPN as well as B-R. I’ve never seen it before, but I am willing to learn. (Please provide the actual link.)

    P.S. Speaking of links, sorry to tease everyone with my admin ability to post multiple links in one post. You all are restricted to one per post. This is necessary to slow down spammers while keeping this an open board. Someone from Pakistan got through just yesterday, but he was bounced within 30 minutes.

    #125549
    Avatarbccran
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    2019 rankings by position fangraphs left field. Google it. Cardinals are ranked #5. Under the Cardinals, the following are listed the WARS –

    Ozuna 3.2
    O’Neill 0.1
    Munoz – 0.0
    Williams 0.0
    Garcia – 0.0

    This isn’t worthy of the time. Let’s put it to bed.

    #125550
    AvatarCardsFanInChiTown
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    Is that a total WAR for all LFers, not just Ozuna? That could be the disconnect.

    #125551
    Avatarbccran
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    Just for Ozuna.

    #125564
    Avatarbccran
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    Have no idea why Ozuna’s seasonal WAR and seasonal position WAR are different. Here’s how they list the seasonal WARs of all the position players –

    DeJong – 4.1
    Wong – 3.7
    Edman – 3.2
    Goldschmidt – 2.9
    Ozuna – 2.5
    Bader – 1.8
    Fowler – 1.5
    Carpenter – 1.2
    Molina – 1.2 (undervalued)
    Thomas – 0.7
    O’Neill – 0.0

    And the pitchers –

    Flaherty – 5.0
    Mikolas – 2.5
    Wainwright – 2.2
    Martinez – 1.2
    Hudson – 0.7 (undervalued)

    Gallegos -1.6 (undervalued)
    Brebbia – 1.3
    Gant – 0.9
    Ponce – 0.5
    Hicks – 0.5
    Helsley – 0.2 (undervalued)
    Webb – 0.1 (very undervalued)

    #125583
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    My conclusions/suggestions:

    Don’t rely on positional WAR values. No one understands them and only one of us can even locate them.
    On a general point, please copy and paste the appropriate link rather than telling people to Google the results.
    Let this particular discussion go, as suggested yesterday. Its point was lost some time ago.

    JMO.

    #125585
    AvatarMinuteman3
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    Let this particular discussion go, as suggested yesterday…

    Amen. There appear to be no winners.

    #125588
    Avatarbccran
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    But it does open up a discussion. Why is the WAR number sometimes at odds with the old fashioned raw stats and some fans “eyes on” through the season? I don’t understand that. Like Webb. His numbers (especially BAA) were outstanding.

    ps – would be happy to cut and paste, BW, if that was in the know how category. Some posters like moi are less sophisticated. Like listening to David Mccullogh yesterday. One of the greatest writers of our time still writes his books on an IBM typewriter. Personal choice I guess.

    #125589
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Happy to help with the basics, bccran. Since you are clearly Google proficient, here is the Google result for searching on “How do I copy and paste?”.

    https://www.google.com/search?q=how+do+i+copy+and+paste%3F&oq=how+do+i+copy+and+paste%3F&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l7.5957j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    The short answer is to highlight the text, then use Control+C to copy it, then Control+V to paste it in the new location. That is it.

    (The only reason I brought it up here is that it was almost impossible to have a good discussion when only one of us could locate the information being cited.)

    On your general comment, I recommend using some of this shared downtime to read any number of good internet articles out there on WAR. The measure includes comparisons to others as well as defense, which may be at least partially why some numbers don’t seem to align with the traditional offensive and pitching stats standbys.

    #125590
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    And while I’m calling out mis-information, replacement level is 0.0, not 1.0; fowler was a win-and-a-half above replacement in 2019.

    It’s not about finding those numbers bccran provided above, because you can’t, because they are false.

    #125591
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    That is correct, jj. My mistake. I will correct it above.

    #125594
    Euro DandyEuro Dandy
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    I read through this thread this morning and the discrepancies piqued my interest. I think I’ve figured it out. bccran is looking at Fangraphs projections for 2019 — not actual performance for 2019. The info he is referencing was published in March 2019. Below is a link to the intro of what he is referencing. Further if you click on the “LF” box in the intro, you will go to the position data bccran has listed and you will see they do PROJECT a 3.2 2019 WAR for Ozuna. The LF projection article shows a date of March 20, 2019.

    2019 Positional Power Rankings: Introduction

    Here is a relevant excerpt from that intro:

    We will have a post for each position, with starting pitchers and relievers divided into two posts a piece to allow us to write all the many words we need to without taxing your patience or time spent reading this while you should be doing your day job (For shame!). Each post will start with a brief summary of the position, and then proceed to rank each team’s group of players from the best all the way down to the worst based on projected WAR. Those WAR numbers are arrived at using a 50/50 blend of ZiPS and Steamer projections, and our manually maintained team depth charts, which include playing time estimates for every player.

    #125597
    Avatarbccran
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    Please be careful accusing others of falsehoods, JJ. Especially when they aren’t falsehoods. Thank you.
    If I had your email address, I would email you the
    3.4 WAR that shows up on Fangraphs. It’s the way I do it. Sorry if it doesn’t sync with the way you do it. As I stated, one of the greatest writers of our times still uses an IBM typewriter. Different strokes.

    #125598
    AvatarMinuteman3
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    ED wrote:

    I think I’ve figured it out. bccran is looking at Fangraphs projections for 2019 — not actual performance for 2019. The info he is referencing was published in March 2019.

    Thanks ED. Hopefully you have discovered the root of the differences. As a non-stat geek, I have been wandering around here in never/never land trying to find something to read while quarantined and the OF Dilemma was the best I could find until I figured out I didn’t know what they were arguing about…..LOL

    Somehow I figured out how to put shaded quotes on the whole darn post.

    grrrrrr.

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 3 weeks ago by AvatarMinuteman3.
    • This reply was modified 1 month, 3 weeks ago by AvatarMinuteman3.
    #125601
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Thanks to Euro for clearing this up. Good detective work!

    I do not believe that bccran intended to present data that did not fit the context of the discussion. He just missed the date and the fact he was citing pre-season projections, not full season actual results.

    What I conclude from this (other than a reminder to “know your data”) is that Fowler performed 1.1 fWAR better in 2019 than the projections and Ozuna under-achieved vs. the projections by 0.7 fWAR.

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