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“I know nothing about Carlson’s arm, but could it be that it is not strong but it is very accurate?”
I can’t speak to the particular qualities of Carlson’s throwing arm, Forschy, but there’s this snippet from Monday’s McLaughlin/Mozeliak mini-podcast:
Dan: “What is his (Carlson’s) best position, or is there one?”
Mo: “If you’re asking me long term, because of his arm strength and his power you could naturally see him profile into the right field position long term.”
The Carlson material starts at the 3:07 mark. Link: https://www.scoopswithdannymac.com/mondays-with-mo-march-2-2020/
Yes, there is quite a gap in the reporting on Carlson’s arm. Mo’s comment aligns better with the Pipeline grade.
All these scouting grades are fine but what about the eyeball test of TCN members? I’ve seen O’Neill at the MLB level some and Carlson very, very little. Any forum members here who have seen both play that want to weigh in on who has the better RF arm?
Don’t know about the arms of Carlson and ONeil but Jose Martinez had a great arm. Nailed runners at 3b and HP from RF.
As far as hitting goes (OPS) we have a new leader in the clubhouse in tbe OF competition. Dean now has the leading OPS among OF’s with a 1.037. Ahead of Carlson, O’Neill, and Ravelo. And he started slowly.
For those on the Dylan Carlson watch for Opening Day, the talented outfielder has started just two games in the last week and went 0-for-7. Lineups suggest that the #stlcards are giving others closer looks in the final days of camp.
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) March 12, 2020
2H camp surge from #stlcards OF Lane Thomas. Reached base in 9 of last 16 plate appearances, including 2 HRs, double, 5 BBs. For the spring, 2nd on team in HRs (3) and RBI (tied w/6), and 1st in walks (8). Thomas has a .963 OPS (Carlson is at .916).
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) March 12, 2020
It is funny that u only pull up the two outfielders that have a few stats slightly above Carlsons. Before when Carlson was had the best stats in all of MLB u made a point of the quality of pitching he was facing. Do u bring that up now when comparing stats? Did u bring up he has not getting one AB against the Mets at their hitting friendly stadium? Stats are stats and u can spin them how every u want to make your point. I just don’t understand the negativity toward Carlson. You seem to knock him down when every time someone makes a point he needs to be on the roster. You even made a point to say a scout said he has a 40 arm trying to knock him down. It amazes me that the Cardinals would play this kid in RF with a 40 arm.
Nothing against Carlson at all. He is the clear no. 1 prospect in the system. His results speak for themselves. I called him talented and of course, the .916 OPS that I noted is really good. However, he is playing less lately and it was worth remarking about, IMO. (I don’t think 0-for-7 is the reason.)
Some of my comments are to moderate those who are expecting him to be starting on Opening Day. Other outfielders are doing well, too, and jobs are not decided. Even if it is not on March 26 for Dylan, it will be soon enough, however. I imagine no one doubts that.
My experience in many years doing this is that some folks attach great importance to results early in camp but can lose sight of changing trends later on.
To your closing comment, the 40 scouting grade on his throwing comes from Fangraphs. As others noted and I acknowledged in the discussion, it is not consistent with other views.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/dylan-carlson/sa917940/stats?position=OF
For completeness, here are the Cards outfielders’ spring OPS coming into Thursday:
Thomas .963
Dean .931
Carlson .916
O’Neill .796
Bader .791
Ravelo .724
Williams .553
Fowler .225Infield-outfield
Miller .929 (just 14 PAs)
Edman .669Fowler went 1-for-2 with no walks or Ks today. His third hit of the spring was a single.
About the ugliest single I have seen this season. rolled by one player and the second guy flat muffed it but enough to be called a hit I guess.
That “single” Fowler hit shouldn’t even count, he hit the ball very weakly both times up. At least he didn’t strike out!
Maybe after a month off he will decide to just retire?
After watching multiple games at Spring Training, it appears that we really don’t have a major league outfield. 3 “unprovens” and a guy who’s in the twilight and seems to be just going through the motions.
How do unprovens become proven if they don’t get a chance to play?
Spring OF OPSes:
Thomas .963
Dean .931
Carlson .905
O’Neill .796
Bader .729Stopping right there, even putting Carlson aside, an outfield of O’Neill-Bader-Thomas looks ok. Dean has been good, too.
Isn’t the real concern Fowler?
Fowler is undoubtedly the concern. My biggest worry is them sticking with him, for even a month. The division is going to be extremely tight, and this year with a likely shortened season, maybe more than ever one game could mean the difference between winning the division, getting stuck in a play in game or missing the postseason entirely.
If they truly go with the best 3 options, Fowler won’t be in it. If they use “history” as the excuse, his OPS the past three years with the Cards is .745. It would be impossible to convince me O’neill, Bader and Thomas wouldn’t put up a better OPS number than that with far superior defense.
That trio would also likely be the best OF defensively in the majors. We talk about O’neill as the LFer, but he has a cannon and that would play in RF very nicely.
Here are the real numbers (and the eyes on test verified my thinking that we really don’t have an outfield – i.e. 3 unproven young guys and an over the hill veteran).
Bader in 2019 –
406 Plate appearances
.205 BA
.314 OBP
.366 SLG
.680 OPS
117 Ks (29%)At Spring Training, after working on contact rate over the off season, he struck out 15 times in limited plate appearances. I saw him K twice up close and personal in 3 PAs last Thursday. It was sad. He didn’t come close to putting the ball in play. He led the entire team in Ks during the abbreviated ST. He’s now had 925 regular season major league plate appearances. I’d say he is still unproven. Both in his major league career and during this short ST.
O’Neill –
In 2019, he hit 5 home runs in 151 plate appearances. Struck out 53 times. That’s a 35 % rate. This Spring, he was second on the team in Ks with 14. Right behind Bader.
He is a young, unproven player.Thomas –
People were raving about Thomas when he hit 27 home runs between Springfield and Memphis in 2018. In 575 plate appearances. In 2019 at Memphis, he dropped off to 10 home runs in 304 plate appearances. Hit .268 at the AAA level.
He did well when he was called up to the Cardinals, but it was a small sample. He’s still unproven.Fowler –
Suffice it to say he had a horrible 2018, a below average 2019, and was brutal at ST. He’s not the proven veteran with decent production that they’re paying for.So, again, it’s a poor veteran player and 3 unprovens in our OF. How long has it been since you’ve seen that?
Tough way to compete for a World Championship.
So, again, it’s a poor veteran player and 3 unprovens in our OF. How long has it been since you’ve seen that?
But we haven’t lost a game yet.
MM –
Every single year for the last 20 years, the Cardinals have had a least one producing veteran outfielder.
Here are the OFs over the past 20 years –
2000 – Lankford, Edmonds, Drew, Pujols
2001 – Lankford, Edmonds, Drew, Pujols
2002 – Pujols, Edmonds, Drew, Perez
2003 – Pujols, Edmonds, Drew, Mabry, Walker
2004 – Lankford, Edmonds, Sanders, Mabry
2005 – Sanders, Edmonds, Walker
2006 – Taguchi, Edmonds, Encarnacion, Duncan
2007 – Duncan, Edmonds, Encarnacion, Ludwick, Ankiel
2008 – Schumacher, Ankiel, Ludwick, Duncan
2009 – Holliday, Rasmus, Ludwick, Ankiel, Duncan
2010 – Holliday, Rasmus, Ludwick, Jay
2011 – Holliday, Rasmus, Berkman, Jay, Craig
2012 – Holiday, Jay, Beltran
2013 – Holliday, Jay, Beltran
2014 – Holliday, Jay, Craig, Taveras
2015 – Holliday, Bourjos, Heyward, Jay, Pham
2016 – Holliday, Grichuk, Piscotty, Pham
2017 – Pham, Fowler, Piscotty, Martinez
2018 – Ozuna, Pham, Fowler, Bader
2019 – Ozuna, Bader, Fowler, Martinez
2020 – O’Neill, Bader, Fowler, ThomasRight now we have, in my estimation, the weakest hitting outfield that we’ve seen in the past 20 years. Not one experienced producing veteran is anchoring it.
Maybe the FO decided they were tired of paying Ozuna an AAV of 10.5mil for a 106 ops+, and wall climber D? Bader has already posted a 106 ops+ (2018), it’s not a stretch to think he can do it again, with ELITE D. After an injury riddled season, O’Neill has still managed a career 101 ops+, and has a 115 season in the books.
We know O’Neills numbers are small sample sizes, and they will continue to be until we play him. I don’t want to be the Pirates and their handling of Austin Meadows.
This team has so many great young options that I am really looking forward to the start of the season.
BTW, bye bye Dexter.
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