Outfield Dilemma …

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  • #123134
    sheepdawgsheepdawg
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    I saw both O’Neil and Pham in Memphis. I don’t think Pham was any faster, O’Neil can fly and is a plus defensively. He just strikes out too much.

    #123135
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    So if he settles back into a 27% rate will that be okay?

    If Tyler maintains his BB% (6.6%) and K% (35.1%) from last season, raises last seasons .411 slg% back to his 2018 .500 slg%, he’s Brandon Lowe-ish with a 125 wRC+ from 2019. That’s very productive.

    It’s very possible to be an above avg bat with a K% in the 30 percentile, if you slg% well. Gallo 38% K% (144 wRC+), Sano 36% (137), Judge 31% (141); but, if Tyler slugs in the low .400’s again, he finds himself in the Will Myers, Jake Marisnac and Justin Upton below avg range with his and their K%.

    So to answer your 27% rate question, the other 73% of his PA’s will determine his bats production. I’m just as interested in his BB% and SLG%, as you are with his K%.

    #123152
    Avatarbccran
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    Ranking the offensive ceilings –

    1.) Carlson
    2.) Williams
    3.) O’Neill
    4.) Thomas
    5.) Bader

    Look about right?

    #123153
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Wow, you are really high on Williams. Is that based on the one good month you cited, because if so, I had pointed out in his prospect write-up that during that time, Williams was still just the fifth-best hitter in the Memphis outfield. Others with a higher OPS were Bader, Garcia, Carlson and Arozarena. Non-OFs Knizner and Nogowski were not far behind. Point being that the entire Memphis lineup hit out of their minds in the final month. I wouldn’t make career ceiling assessments based on that.

    #123154
    AvatarMinuteman3
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    Look about right?

    Ask me in September.

    #123161
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Ranking the offensive ceilings –

    1.) Carlson
    2.) Williams
    3.) O’Neill
    4.) Thomas
    5.) Bader

    Look about right?

    I’d go:

    1. O’Neill (you can’t teach the kind of power this kid has)
    2. Carlson
    3. Thomas
    4. Bader
    5. Williams

    The knock on Williams has always been that he doesn’t elevate the ball enough. If he can straighten that out you’d probably bump him past Bader to #4 on the potential list.

    #123179
    AvatarSimba9
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    Ranking the offensive ceilings –

    1.) Carlson
    2.) Williams
    3.) O’Neill
    4.) Thomas
    5.) Bader

    Look about right?

    I would put it at
    1) Oneil- most power
    2) Carlson-best avg and power combo
    3) Bader- not alot of power but expect on base pct. to be better
    4) Thomas-not a believer of his MLB flash being sustained
    5) Williams-Im not as up to date on him

    #123180
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    FWIW, Mark Saxon wrote about Williams today.

    #123181
    Avatarbccran
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    Just have a feeling about Williams. The only thing holding him back has been elevating the ball and his health. He seems to be coming on now, after being drafted as a 17 year old in 2013.

    In 2017, he played the entire season at AA as a 21 year old and slashed .301/.364/.489/.853. Had 14 home runs and 72 RBI in only 406 PAs. In 2018 he took a bit of a drubbing adjusting to AAA as a 22 year old. In 2019, he had that injury incident but had that great spell at Memphis like you said, hitting 7 home runs in only 119 plate appearance.

    He may be on the cusp of breaking out, and he has that one other thing working for him – he hits from the left side.

    #123187
    Avatar1982 willie
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    Oneil can fly, he is super fast. probably on par with bader, maybe faster. great with baserunning. problem is defensively though it doesn’t help him much. he takes bad lines and he tends to drop the ball, maybe because of the speed, I don’t know. I have actually seen bader drop the ball a couple of times but for the most part he catches them.

    #123188
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Williams is our no. 14 prospect, so surely not anyone to forget. However, putting him ahead of O’Neill and Thomas in ultimate potential feels overly aggressive right now, IMO. We shall see.

    As far as his left-handedness, it is not as big of a deal now, compared to when he was first acquired. The roster has changed since then. My projected five-man bench already has three hitters who can bat from the left side in Edman, Miller and Wieters – and two of them can play in the outfield.

    #123205
    Avatarbccran
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    The Understand about Edman, Miller, and Wieters, but I’m thinking about that long term left handed outfield bat we’re been looking for.

    #123207
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    I know a guy, if you don’t mind a switch hitter.

    #123211
    bicyclemikebicyclemike
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    If Williams crowds his way into the picture, I love the problem we have.

    In talking about O’Neill and Pham with speed, I should have clarified. I do not see O’Neill as being the base runner Tommy is. Pham will steal you a base 25 times a year. Not sure Ty will do that.

    #123212
    Avatarbccran
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    Understand that, jj, but we need 3 outfielders going forward after Dexter is no longer with us. I don’t see any that are close besides Bader, O’Neill, Carlson, Thomas, and Williams. That makes Williams fairly important factoring in possible underperformance and injuries.

    #123213
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Dean is a relative unknown, but should not be forgotten, either.

    Fowler has two more years. Trying to see in the future to spring 2022 and beyond is a sketchy endeavor. To that point, two years ago, Williams wasn’t even in the organization. We were talking about guys like Garcia and Arozarena back then.

    #123216
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    “….long term left handed outfield bat we’ve been looking for.”
    That’s Carlson for me, not Williams.

    #123219
    Avatarmudville
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    Dean is my sleeper to impress this spring.

    #123221
    Euro DandyEuro Dandy
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    Pham will steal you a base 25 times a year. Not sure Ty will do that.

    And related to O’Neill’s injury proneness, he probably shouldn’t try stealing very often. He reminds me of some of the massive, muscular football players who play speed positions. Some have great explosion, but are frequently tweaking muscles/soft tissue during the season. I guess they can be too explosive for the weakest links of their bodies.

    #123225
    AvatarChristopher Jeske
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    @bccran – Have you been reading too many of my posts? I thought I was the high one on Williams.

    I would rank them 1. Carlson, 2. O’Neill, 3. Williams, 4. Bader.

    Not sure how I would rank them including defense. One thing to consider is that Carlson’s Fielding Runs Above Average (Baseball Prospectus) last year at AA (108 games) was a terrible -11.1. This doesn’t match up to the accounts of him looking like a plus center fielder defensively that others have touted. I suppose he could have made big strides toward the end of the year and was just poor there early on.

    On the other hand, Williams’ Fielding Runs Above Average at AAA across 2018 & 19 (151 games) was +23.8. For comparison, Adolis Garcia was +17.6 in 132 games last year. Although I’d be shocked to learn that Williams can run with O’Neill and Bader, he still looks to be very strong defensively.

    As bccran notes, Williams’ 2017 AA was outstanding. If he wouldn’t have missed a few games, he probably would have won the Southern League MVP. (Same as O’Neill in 2016 and Carlson in 2019).

    And I don’t think he needs to make a big swing adjustment to be successful. Sure it will help, but he has a lot of similarities to an early career Christian Yelich who provided a lot of value despite high GB% (63.2% in 2013, 61% in 2014, and 62.5% in 2015). And Jason Heyward hit for a 121 wRC+ during his year in STL despite an awkward looking swing (I think it’s been called an arm or elbow bar). These are the two most common concerns I hear about Williams.

    According to Fangraphs, his average exit velocity is 92 (max is 110). Both are the best recorded among STL prospects and among the best of all minor leaguers.

    Anyhow, games are almost here. We will find out soon how they do this year.

    #123226
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    I tend to agree with you, Euro. If O’Neill could stay healthy enough to strike out less while hitting a lot of homers and driving in many runs, others can steal the bases. He ran much more with Seattle earlier in his career than since he joined the Cardinals. That is ok with me. He doesn’t have to do everything.

    #123227
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Christopher Jeske said:

    One thing to consider is that Carlson’s Fielding Runs Above Average (Baseball Prospectus) last year at AA (108 games) was a terrible -11.1. This doesn’t match up to the accounts of him looking like a plus center fielder defensively that others have touted.

    SOME others touted that, but not all of us…

    #123228
    sheepdawgsheepdawg
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    1982 willie, which Tyler O’Neill have you been watching? He’s a big improvement defensively over Ozuna.

    #123229
    Avatarbccran
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    O’Neill is the son of Terry O’Neiill, a former Mr. Canada. The Mr. Canada title is given to Canada’s top weight lifter. Tyler is what we used to call being muscle bound. Apparently he did a bunch of stretching and flexibility training over the off season. Hope it helps.

    #123230
    sheepdawgsheepdawg
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    He was here in Memphis for a Cardinal caravan two years ago. I asked him about his dad being Mr. Canada. He talked with such pride and said his dad was still put together at 69. I asked him if he arm wrestles him and he said his dad never loses.

    Perhaps that’s why I pull so much for Tyler. I’ve met him a few times and he’s a real well mannered, nice kid.

Viewing 25 posts - 251 through 275 (of 481 total)
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