Outfield Dilemma …

Home The Cardinal Nation Forums Open Forum Outfield Dilemma …

Viewing 25 posts - 226 through 250 (of 481 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #123008
    Avatar1982 willie
    Participant

    Free

    where are the elite hitters that are playing now. I really haven’t seen any for a while. trout has impressive war stats for those that are impressed by that but elite in being a pure hitter, no.

    #123018
    AvatarChristopher Jeske
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Just following up on a post and brief conversation I started on page seven of this topic.

    I was doing some more research on KATOH-like prospect projection systems and found Alex Isherwood at Pitcher List has essentially built a customized version of KATOH.

    In the last update from the 2019 season, it spits out Dylan Carlson as the number 2 hitting prospect overall. Keep in mind this is a 100% stats-based system.

    Here is his last update as of 11/30/2019: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oEboGxBUZgKNgAx-BIC_3suN_GRZJKBL3Md1vODISCo/edit#gid=0

    You can also see Arozarena at 51, Malcolm Nunez at 71, Justin Williams at 74, Lane Thomas at 93, Elehuris Montero at 97, and Nolan Gorman at 99. Keep in mind this list is only of hitters. Also, given Nunez and Montero’s inclusion it presumably uses multiple years of data.

    The spreadsheet also includes beta projections for pitchers. (Oviedo at 23, Cabrera at 34, Rondon at 39, Woodford at 61, Sanchez (from SEA) at 83, and Helsley at 86). Again, keep in mind this list is only of pitchers.

    Here’s the framework: https://www.pitcherlist.com/projecting-minor-league-hitters-using-statistics/

    #123027
    Avatarbccran
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    25 – I’d factor in dilution.
    There weren’t as many teams back then. You had to be really good to make a major league rotation.

    #123028
    sheepdawgsheepdawg
    Participant

    Free

    Yeah, Koufax, Feller, Hubbell and Walter Johnson would be #3 starters or might even wind up in Triple A today……Right.

    #123030
    Avatarbccran
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Plus, some guys back then didn’t have to throw the ball through the
    wall to be effective. They were masters at command and control, changing speeds, etc. Very rarely left a ball over the middle of the plate. John Tudor drove batters crazy. Rarely touched 90 on the gun. How about that 1985 season for the Cardinals –

    21-8
    1.93 ERA
    275 innings pitched
    Only 209 hits given
    14 complete games
    10 (yes 10) shutouts

    And the hitters weren’t diluted back then. Fewer teams.

    Tudor would carve up today’s batters who are looking for a straight 92-95 MPH fastball in the fat part of the plate to drive over the wall.

    #123033
    stlcard25stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    25 – I’d factor in dilution.
    There weren’t as many teams back then. You had to be really good to make a major league rotation.

    The growth of the game in Latin America, Asia and the full inclusion of African American players far more than accounts for any dilution. The average pitcher from the 50s throwing 80-85 wouldn’t make the major leagues today. Of course there would be outliers but that’s what they are… exceptions.

    #123035
    AvatarOquendo11
    Participant

    Free

    Trying to state what a player would do (would have done) in a different era is a waste of time.

    Yes competition level is different.

    But so is the training and equipment.

    Even the rules are different.

    #123040
    Avatarbccran
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I don’t think the average pitcher in the 50s only hit 80-85 on the gun. I was a fan at that time.

    #123044
    Euro DandyEuro Dandy
    Participant

    Free

    Trying to state what a player would do (would have done) in a different era is a waste of time.

    Bingo, it’s a futile endeavor. Way too many variables to list. Differences in the mental aspects of hitting/pitching approaches and less situational hitting today. Hitters used to be embarrassed by strikeouts, but not nearly as much today.

    Some of the older greats would probably adapt very well to today’s more power-oriented game, others maybe not as well. It’s very dubious to project performance a generation or two ahead on a per individual player basis. You’re quite a genius if you can. Heck, the smart front office execs can’t even project performance ahead one year with all the terrible contracts we see.

    #123051
    stlcard25stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Trying to state what a player would do (would have done) in a different era is a waste of time.

    Yes competition level is different.

    But so is the training and equipment.

    Even the rules are different.

    So would you then say it’s a “waste of time” to use old stats like K rates from the olden days to bash today’s players categorically?

    #123052
    AvatarOquendo11
    Participant

    Free
    #123053
    AvatarOquendo11
    Participant

    Free

    I fell in love with baseball because of Whiteyball. I would LOVE to see how a Cardinals team built on contact (switch) hitters, exceptional speed, TERRIFIC defense and outstanding pitching would do now.

    I dislike strikeouts so I fear O’Neill’s strikeout rate. I hope O’Neill can improve.

    #123054
    AvatarOquendo11
    Participant

    Free

    Pitchers today (on average) throw much harder for much fewer innings. And then a series of relief pitchers come in, many throwing close to or over 100 MPH (e.g. 105.2 MPH).

    #123062
    Avatarbccran
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    A major league hitter can crush a mid 90s straight fastball down the middle of the plate. The well placed change up, slider, curve, etc. can be a problem. Just like it always has been.

    #123073
    AvatarOquendo11
    Participant

    Free

    A major league hitter can crush a mid 90s straight fastball down the middle of the plate. The well placed change up, slider, curve, etc. can be a problem. Just like it always has been.

    How about a high 90s – low 100s fastball with movement?

    #123077
    bicyclemikebicyclemike
    Moderator

    Paid - Annual

    The one thing about comparing players of different eras you can say is that the stars of yesterday would star today, and vice versa. If a guy was 10% better than league average in 1950, he would be that in 2020.

    The greatest of the great would be great no matter what the era. There are a few examples that show that. Ted Williams was great in the late 1930s, and was great in the late 1950s. Stan was great in the ‘40s, and still had enough to pull the ball for a single in his very last at bat against the hard-throwing Jim Maloney in 1963.

    The game has changed. Williams and Musial would strike out more today, but they would be the Mike Trout’s of baseball today if we could warp time in some manner and have them born some 60-70 years later. Likewise Trout would be the Babe Ruth/Jimmie Foxx of the ‘20s and ‘30s.

    Although you cannot truly find a comparable Babe. He may never be duplicated – he started out as a Randy Johnson/Steve Carlton type and transformed into a Barry Bonds.

    #123085
    stlcard25stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I’m in agreement with you, BikeMike! Most stars would be good in any era with the expected changes in competition, equipment, training, etc.

    #123086
    stlcard25stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    How about a high 90s – low 100s fastball with movement?

    That’s the real trick. Not to mention such exacting analytics that exploit any weakness very thoroughly.

    #123106
    Avatar1982 willie
    Participant

    Free

    while I agree that some stars might excel the same, im not sure about all. I think in different eras, you have to have different mindsets. A lot of players today don’t have the mindset to play the game the way it was played early on in the twentieth century. sure the physical skills would be fine, the mental is the difference. Being able to stay in the box and accept that a pitch may get intentionally thrown at your head and no whining about it after the fact is gonna get you any sympathy. I look at it the same way with other sports like nascar and football. In todays sports, its all about skill set, things are mostly safe and easy. Back in the day, just having the skill to hit or field wasn’t enough. you had to have the mindset and grit to deal with things hardly seen in todays sports. I see how baseball players react when a ball comes a little too close or actually hits them or how quarterbacks whine if somebody just breaths on them in the slightest, I think a lot of those players wouldn’t have what it takes if the games just changed back to the way it was overnight. Its also one of the reasons you see players playing well farther up into age, at least one of the reasons.

    #123113
    Avatarbccran
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    One of my favorite quotes from Stan Musial. He was asked how he would do today against players who are bigger, stronger, faster, have better equipment, see sports psychologists, have year around workout routines, etc.

    He said – “Well, I had a career batting average of .331, but if I were playing today I probably wouldn’t hit more than about .280 or so. Of course I am 82 years old now.”

    #123114
    Avatarbccran
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    The main thing is to see if a guy like O’Neill can level out. He’s been in professional baseball for 7 years. Here are his K rates as he came through the minors and in his limited time at the major league level –

    Rookie – 24%
    A – 32%
    A+ – 31%
    AA – 27%
    AAA – 27%
    MLB – 38%

    So if he settles back into a 27% rate will that be okay?
    In his time at AAA his OPS was .894.

    #123116
    stlcard25stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    So if he settles back into a 27% rate will that be okay?
    In his time at AAA his OPS was .894.

    Yes, I think he will be more than ok there. Also, I think it’s at least a little unfair to use his entire AAA experience against him. His 2018 included a stellar 1.078 OPS (before the rabbit ball even) and his OPS with the Cards at Memphis has been .943, which is pretty good. He was talked about on the Danny Mac podcast this week as a potentially excellent defender.

    #123127
    bicyclemikebicyclemike
    Moderator

    Paid - Annual

    If O’Neill stays healthy, he should be able to increase his contact rate and hit for power. Tommy Pham was similar. He was striking out at an alarming rate early in the majors because he was playing sparingly, and tended to be injured a lot.

    O’Neill reminds me some of Pham, with more power but less speed. Just needs the reps, which hopefully come if he is healthy.

    #123130
    Euro DandyEuro Dandy
    Participant

    Free

    bikemike, health is perhaps the biggest key for O’Neill. Hope he stays on the field.

    Reference his speed, The Statcast Sprint Speed Leader Board had O’Neill as the fastest Card in 2019. Yes, he was ahead of Bader and way ahead of Pham.

    #123131
    Avatarbccran
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Should we be talking more about this 23 year old Memphis last season?

    .353/.437/.608/1.045

    Only 36 games, but wow.

Viewing 25 posts - 226 through 250 (of 481 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.

First-hand news and commentary on the St. Louis Cardinals™ and their minor league system for 20 years