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  • #145133
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    If O’Neills 2022 arb1 amount is a financial factor, then some club gave him 600 PA’s next season. Tylers PA’s would then be similar to Baders current arb1 amount and PA’s.

    #145134
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    But how long is a fair test? I think most would agree O’Neill was not rushed to StL like Carlson was. O’Neill first came up three seasons ago and now has 450 MLB plate appearances.

    He had a solid debut in 2018, then IIRC looked decent filling in for Ozuna last year, then got hurt and never really played at the big league level the rest of the year. I’m willing to basically throw every outlier out from this year, high or low, in the wacky schedule and small sample size. I’d probably say if he’s still not hitting decently by mid season next year, I’d explore a trade for an OFer to permanently move him to the bench or trade Tyler himself.

    #145140
    Avatarbccran
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    When did the 2019 community voting take place. Over what month(s)?

    #145141
    Avatarbccran
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    Finally found that 2019 TCN community vote, going all the way back 30 pages on here. It was in November and December of 2018. Well before Arozarena’s 2019 breakout season.

    But on that page, BHC posted the same type top 50 pole he conducted on another forum – Cards Talk. Even before Arozarena’s 2019 breakout season, that pole shows Arozarena as the #6 prospect. Carlson is #11. Williams is #14. Thomas is #15.

    All of this shows 2 things –

    1.) To try to make a case out of how some poster on TCN ranked Arozarena before his 2019 breakout season makes no sense.

    2.) In another widely viewed forum, however, the pole taken by BHC shows that in those posters minds, even at that point, Arozarena was rated even higher than Carlson. They didn’t “miss it”.

    #145142
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    bccran wrote:

    I don’t know if you had O’Neill as a better prospect than Arozarena, 25, but I sure didn’t.

    bccran, please focus on your sentence above. You are again trying to shift the dialogue because the point you made does not appear to be accurate. 2019 was the most recent time the two were both prospects so they could be compared directly. At that time, O’NEILL was considered the better prospect of the two, even by your own vote. That wasn’t just here, but on national lists as well.

    Elevating your view of Arozarena later because of his 2019 season is understandable, but by then O’NEILL was no longer a prospect. I checked the 2020 voting thread here at TCN and you did not participate in that part. However, the community overall placed Randy 4th, which was lower than O’NEILL’s third the year before.

    None of these data points (and more than I can provide) support your contention that Arozarena was a better prospect than O’NEILL.

    P.S. One should not have to search for the 2019 community vote thread. I provided the link in this discussion when I cited it yesterday. It is also included in the very first post of the 2020 voting thread, which is conveniently pinned to the top of this forum.

    #145143
    Avatarbccran
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    My personal data points were Arozarena’s performance at AAA vs. O’Neill’s. At the time of the trade, I said that I would have traded any outfielder except Carlson and Arozarena. You use your data points for performance, and I’ll use mine. And in my mind Arozarena was a better overall ball player than O’Neill and Bader. Personal choice then, and personal choice now.

    #145145
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    A general observation. The dogged use of Triple-A slash lines as the best answer for seemingly every comparative question is likely why there is often confusion about and/or disagreement with comments you make, since it does always jibe with other data points.

    If one could just use a spreadsheet to accurately rank prospects by OPS or ERA (or whatever measure chosen for pitchers), scouting and prospect evaluation could be so much simpler and in fact, done by machines.

    #145146
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    My personal data points were Arozarena’s performance at AAA vs. O’Neill’s.

    2018-19 stat line in Memphis:

    O’Neill .294/.362/.626/.986 37 HR, 89 RBI

    Arozarena .292/.379/.465/.844, 17 HR, 56 RBIs

    They were on the same team for both of these years, and Arozarena had 594 PA while O’Neill had 439. If you prorated Tyler’s stats to the same plate appearances he would project to 50 HRs and 120 RBIs.

    #145147
    Avatarbccran
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    Try Arozarena’s stats in 2019, when he was coming into his own.

    #145148
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Try Arozarena’s stats in 2019, when he was coming into his own.

    Why not O’Neills stats from when he “came into his own” in 2018 rather than his back and forth, injury shortened 2019?

    .311/.385/.693/1.078

    Any way you cut it, better than Arozarena. You didn’t use stats to make your claim. You used some 20-20 revisionist thinking. Well done.

    #145149
    Avatarbccran
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    Do you want to compare O’Neill’s stats when he was coming into his own vs. Arozarana’s stats when he was coming into his own? Have at it.

    #145150
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Do you want to compare O’Neill’s stats when he was coming into his own vs. Arozarana’s stats when he was coming into his own? Have at it.

    I just did.

    2018-19 stat line in Memphis:

    O’Neill .294/.362/.626/.986 37 HR, 89 RBI

    Arozarena .292/.379/.465/.844, 17 HR, 56 RBIs

    They were on the same team for both of these years, and Arozarena had 594 PA while O’Neill had 439. If you prorated Tyler’s stats to the same plate appearances he would project to 50 HRs and 120 RBIs.

    #145151
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Or do you mean when O’Neill hit .311/.385/.693/1.078 in 2018, and Arozarena’s “coming into his own” was 50 points of OPS lower?

    #145160
    Avatarbccran
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    How about comparing O’Neill at Memphis in 2019 to Arozarena at Memphis in 2019. Fair comparison? Apples to apples.

    #145165
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    A very interesting article by Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline is up. He reports the Rays and Cardinals had been talking about a multi-player trade in 2017, about which he mentioned this:

    “One thing for certain was that Arozarena would have been a smaller piece in that deal had it gone through.”

    Mayo talks with the Rays pro scouting director, who outlined in detail how they had tracked Arozarena for multiple years. So, the speculation that the Cardinals could have included O’Neill or Bader or Thomas or whoever and still made the 2020 trade is almost certainly wrong.

    P.S. Also note that the Rays exec said they did not expect Randy to be an Aroldis Chapman-kind of acquisition, but they liked his future value.

    #145171
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    What O’Neill & Arozarena have most in common was they were both blocked at MLB by Fowler, Bader, JMart and Ozuna.

    Arozarena eventually was traded, when we got to the point where we had eight outfielders on the 40man. O’Neill may also be moved if we get the LF upgrade the majority of the message board wants this offseason. The matrix currently shows 7 outfielders on the 40man, not counting Edman or Ravelo.

    O’Neill may be the next Arozarena that “got away”, but that’s the price any org pays when they acquire proven, rather than gamble regular starter status on unproven. We’re not the Pirates who can give O’Neill 600 PA’s next season, we’re supposed to contend, and that will continue to drive the FO decisions.

    #145172
    Avatarbccran
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    Let’s take a look at some comments on here at the time of the trade –

    Rats – “I’d be glad to send Tyler O’Neill and all of his strikeouts to Memphis”.
    (Before he knew which player was included in the trade besides Martinez).

    Black Hills – “Sad to see Arozarena go because I think he’ll be a better MLB player than O’Neill”.

    Forsch – “If, big if, it was the Cardinals choice on either Arozarena or O’Neill to the Rays, count me as disappointed. The Cardinals do not need to keep hitters who strike out a bunch just because they can hit home runs. We need hitters who get on base and Arozarena is that type of hitter. He will also hit around 15 home runs a year.”

    25 – I really liked Arozarena and think he will do well in Tampa. Overall I think the chances of getting a star from O’Neill and Thomas are higher, so I’m OK with keeping those two.”

    BikeMike – “Glad O’Neill is still a Cardinal. Arozarena will get a shot to play more.”

    gscottar – “Sorry to lose Randy but keeping Thomas is the right move.”

    1982willie – I liked Arozarena, would rather let O’Neill go unless unless we are using him to get someone better.”

    Minuteman – “I know that we have a flood of outfielders, but I will admit that I was hoping it would be the human windmill that would be traded – Tyler O’Neill.”

    #145173
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    How about comparing O’Neill at Memphis in 2019 to Arozarena at Memphis in 2019. Fair comparison? Apples to apples.

    2018-19 stat line in Memphis:

    O’Neill .294/.362/.626/.988 37 HR, 89 RBI

    Arozarena .292/.379/.465/.844, 17 HR, 56 RBIs

    They were on the same team for both of these years, and Arozarena had 594 PA while O’Neill had 439. If you prorated Tyler’s stats to the same plate appearances he would project to 50 HRs and 120 RBIs.

    #145175
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    It escapes me why this “O’Neill vs. Arozarena” narrative is still being pushed. I just showed clear valdation that the Rays had been pursuing Randy for multiple years. So it wasn’t a choice in making the trade. They knew who they wanted.

    #145176
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Interesting article on the trade. If the 2017 deal was considered a “blockbuster,” it must have either been for Evan Longoria or Chris Archer. Glad we missed out on that one.

    #145177
    Avatarbccran
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    BW – the discussion is only because it was trading offense for a very attractive left handed pitching prospect. At a time when we had ranked way down in offense in the 2019 season. And relying on unproven youngsters like O’Neill, Bader, Thomas, etc. going into 2020 to somehow come through. That compounded by no moves at the deadline this mini season. So it’s an appropriate conversation at this point to see if Mo is going to roll the dice with the same guys – especially O’Neill and Bader – going into next season. The fact that O’Neill did get one plate appearance in the Padre series seems to say a lot.

    #145178
    Avatargscottar
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    Two or three years from now when Randy has comeback down to earth and settled into a slightly better than average player and Liberatore has established himself as a number two or three in our rotation a lot of the hyperbole on this subject is going to look foolish. I hope someone a little more tech savvy than me is able to search for these threads in the future.

    #145180
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Agreed, gscottar. I really like the way the Cards’ pitching shapes up for the next 3-4 years. Who wouldn’t like the thought of a rotation of Flaherty, Hudson, Reyes, Liberatore and Thompson/Oviedo in 2023?

    The offense can always be augmented through free agency, where the team should have plenty of money to spend in 2022-24. Next year is a year that we are not going to win the Series anyway, so why not hold on, see what we’ve got in O’Neill/Thomas/Carlson and hopefully have a look at Gorman in 2021 as well? You may have two or three #2-6 hitters already in that group and be able to supplement with Lindor, Seager, Correa, Conforto, Judge, etc.

    #145181
    Avatarforsch31
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    bccran, using my statement about the trade clearly points out that I would only be disappointed if the CARDINALS chose to send Arozarena rather than O’Neill. I believe I also have a statement that says I was still OK with the deal. There seems to be a lot of information that shows the Rays WANTED Arozarena. At this point, everything else is just noise. If we could go back and redo the deal, I would guess that there would be no deal without Arozarena and we still would have had a logjam of OFs. I doubt Arozarena alone would have made enough difference for the Cardinals this year.

    BTW, you cited 3 posters who clearly ranked Arozarena higher than O’Neill. 2 posters only showed dislike for O’Neill. 2 posters clearly ranked O’Neill higher than Arozarena. 1 poster ranked Thomas higher than Arozarena.

    #145183
    Avatarbccran
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    Forsch – I’m not complaining so much about the trade as I am about not doing anything after the trade. When the Cards traded Arozarena and didn’t extend Ozuna I said oh oh. Now we need another good bat. And I’m saying the same thing right now.
    I really wish I could get on board with Bader and O’Neill. I am on board with Fowler (unfortunately), Carlson, and a good addition for left field. The same I think with with most posters.

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