Our Younger OFers

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  • #147859
    Avatarbccran
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    Tough not to criticize when the results simply aren’t there, Brian. We went into 2020 with two slots in the outfield filled by unproven players. And our situation hasn’t changed, except that Carlson has arrived. We now have an aging and declining right fielder who has stats nowhere near what a RFer should have. A budding star in CF. And 3 stumbling guys to try to fill the slot in LF. Where I think you will find the Cards getting a solid veteran in the off season.

    #147864
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    “Our Young Outfielders”

    Play them. No more Ozuna blocking Arozarena scenarios. “That’s on me” is not what you want to hear from Mo.

    Feels like Baders time as a Cardinal is getting short.

    #147877
    Avatarmudville
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    I agree. Play them. But, also, keep trying to acquire a promising outfield prospect. I hope MO doesn’t clog up the roster with an uninspiring retread.

    IMO, Arozarena is still unproven. This wouldn’t be the first time that a rookie came on red hot, then cooled way down after the adrenalin rush settled down and the league figured out how to pitch to him. For now, I still like the trade.

    #147879
    Avatar1964cards
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    This may hurt the clubs chances in 2021. However, I believe the Cards need to play the guys they have to determine what they really have with O’Neill, Thomas and Williams. I think the Front Office has a good idea of what they have in Bader – good to great defender with holes in his offensive game.

    The question becomes can they get enough offense out of the other two outfield spots so they can afford to keep Bader in center.

    #147881
    AvatarILcardfan
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    Once fowler is off the books, I was thinking carlson projected to be in right if memory serves me correctly. I think the hope would be O’neil comes on and takes the left field job, Bader holds down center, and Carlson in right from 2022 forward.

    #147883
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    Just for some fun I went back to my 140 pages of comments which goes back to mid-season of 2017. Notice the date. I mentioned six “Young Outfielders”…. four are gone… as seasons go by the names change but the results remain about the same. Right now only two remain… Bader is still very IFFY and Carlson seems to be the guy who will come through for us.

    July 5, 2017 at 10:08 am in reply to: Minor league thrmeead – Tue Jul 4#26656REPLY

    14NyquisT:

    Sierra is ready, Bader is very close to ready, Mercado still DLed(needs to be watched), JAGarcis and Arozarena are at least one year away. The guy to keep an eye on is 18 year old Dylan Carlson, who the organization challenged with a position at Peoria. He started slow but is now showing some good positive numbers and patience at the plate. I give him possibly ’20 as ETA in St.Louis.

    #147887
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    Poll:

    Of Bader, Carlson, O’Neill, Thomas and Williams….

    1) Rank them descending by best CF defense

    2) Rank them descending by best RF arm

    #147888
    Avatarbccran
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    O’Neill – .173/.261/.360/.621
    Thomas – .111/.200/.250/.450
    Fowler – .233/.317/.389/.706
    Bader – .226/.336/.443/.779
    Carlson – .200/.252/.363/.616

    Ladies and Gentlemen – your 2020 St. Louis Cardinals outfield. And some of you want to go into 2021 without adding someone?

    #147896
    Avatargscottar
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    Poll:

    Of Bader, Carlson, O’Neill, Thomas and Williams….

    1) Rank them descending by best CF defense

    2) Rank them descending by best RF arm

    CF Defense:
    1. Bader
    2. O’Neill
    3. Thomas
    4. Carlson
    5. Williams

    I think Carlson projects as a corner OF. The only reason we play him in CF is because Bader can’t hit consistently.

    I am really not sure about RF arm.

    #147902
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Poll:

    Of Bader, Carlson, O’Neill, Thomas and Williams….

    1) Rank them descending by best CF defense

    2) Rank them descending by best RF arm

    1. Bader, Thomas, O’Neill, Carlson, Williams

    2) O’Neill, Bader, Carlson, Thomas, Williams (he’s the only one I don’t know so I put him last by default)

    #147903
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    And some of you want to go into 2021 without adding someone?

    Yes. They’ll be the best defensive outfield in the majors, especiall if they purge Fowler and make him a backup/DH.

    Also, three of the five are locks to hit better than this weird year, probably by around 200 points of OPS each. Bader and Fowler may be about the same as 2020.

    #147912
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    So Carlson profiles best in LF among our options, Bader in CF, O’Neill’s arm in RF. Thomas ability to play CF well fits the roster well as a 4th outfielder. The 2020 postseason alignment, with Fowler in RF, still.

    #147913
    Avatarbccran
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    Is signing Ozuna or Brantley going to mess this up?

    #147914
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    25, I hadn’t considered the Fowler DH option, which would open up outfield starts significantly. Good thought, currently there is more depth behind Fowler than there is behind Carpenter at 3B.

    #147919
    Avatarbccran
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    O’Neill career –

    2018-2020
    171 games
    450 PAs
    .229/.291/.422/.713
    K rate – 34%

    Bader career –

    2017-2020
    348 games
    1.058 PAs
    .234/.322/.399/.721
    K rate – 29%

    #147924
    Avatarforsch31
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    bccran

    …. A budding star in CF…

    bccran, I never thought I would see you call Bader a budding star.

    #147925
    Avatarbccran
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    I think you know I’m referring to Carlson, Forsch. Bader could be an asset to the Cards if he gets out of his own way.

    #147937
    Avatargscottar
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    Carlson has much more value as a corner OF. We need a plus defender in CF.

    #147938
    Avatargscottar
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    Is signing Ozuna or Brantley going to mess this up?

    No because we won’t be signing either one.

    #147939
    Avatarbccran
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    I wouldn’t rule out anything, Scotty.

    #147940
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    I’ll rule it out. If Mo signs a big money, older free agent outfielder this off-season, he should be fired. There’s 0 reason to spend big money on what would be a very short term fix at best. This team is not a WS contender, with or without those guys.

    #147941
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

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    If Mo signs a big money, older free agent outfielder this off-season, it will only be because Bill DeWitt Jr. thinks it is a good idea. I guess if it fails later, he could fire Mo, anyway, though.

    While no move of any kind can technically be ruled out until it does not happen, one should be realistic about the chances of it actually occurring.

    To be specific about the two free agents cited, here are their new contracts as estimated by MLB Trade Rumors:

    #4 MLB free agent Ozuna – 4 years/$72 MM
    #13 free agent Brantley – 2 years/$28 MM

    I am very open to any evidence that even hints that the Cardinals will be shopping in those aisles this winter.

    #147942
    Avatarbccran
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    1.) The only reason I mention Ozuna is because they know him and that’s their modus. With the exception of Carlson and Gorman, a big bat within the organization is way far off. Maybe Walker.

    2.) Brantley, a 34 year old in a market with team’s revenues way down, may be a lot more affordable than 2/$28.

    #147943
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    We shall see what the real signings turn out to be, but MLBTR puts a lot of thought and research into their estimates. I will go with them until proven otherwise.

    In fact, the examples we have so far of their estimates vs. actual salaries for 2021 were all too low, not the other way around:

    Robbie Ray – $6 MM estimate, got $8 MM actual
    Marcus Stroman – 4 yr/$68 MM estimate ($17 MM/yr), $18.9 MM qualifying offer accepted
    Drew Smyly – $5 MM estimate, got $11 MM actual

    This very early data suggests MLBTR may have taken the 2020 financial losses into too great of an account.

    #147944
    Avatarmudville
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    I have high hopes for Eluheris Montero, and I’m with those who haven’t yet given up on O’Neill and Thomas. IMO, O’Neill is still developing and Thomas really hasn’t gotten his chance yet. I hope the are able to sign one of the elite shortstops that are free agents next offseason. Of course, a lot changes if Sosa emerges as a viable shortstop or second baseman.

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