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I felt the same as stlcard25, not so much that Carlson would fail, but was hoping he would get a chance for more minor league play before being pushed to the top level. It just seemed like people were thinking of him as the new Bryce Harper (OPS of 100+ as a teenager), but those guys come along once in a generation for a team.
I do believe carlsson was called up too soon and if it was a normal year, he would have been getting lots of at bats at triple A. I think he needs more time there next season assuming things return to some normalcy. From my perspective, I see him as above average when he reaches his potential but i dont see a star player or a game changer, someone that really makes a difference. I think offensively he will be an upgrade over what we have but im not sure its enough to where we wont be talking abvout the offensive struggles of the outfield. He actually might be worth more in a trade if ownership would get serious about getting an impact player.
The organization has always pushed Carlson. His 18 yo season was spent at GCL and there were no great shakes. In ’17… his 19 yo season they pushed him to full season-A Peoria. Only a few Card’s prospects make that jump. And only after 13 games with Peoria they challenged him again with a bump up to Adv-A. ball.
He started last season at AA and at 20 he started to show good power numbers. He started driving the ball and 51 of his 117 hits were for extra bases. His plate discipline was better (4.2 P/PA) although his BB/K ratio was declining. Again the organization bumped him up to AAA and he was mashing the pitching there.
So now in 2020… ’nuff said, in his age 21 season (he’ll be 22 next month) when he should have been playing AAA ball, he was almost forced into being sent up to the big-time. He was over aggressive at the plate and it showed…. he couldn’t nail down a starting job. MLB pitchers seemed to pick up on his approach. I’m hesitant to call this a failed season for him. He got a good look at what he’ll be up against and will have time to work on it. He picked up a world of experience.
What I’m seeing is a 6’2″ corner OFer that can show some pop and is still growing into his potential. He
is still our #1 prospect and because he is a good student and a hard worker (a couple of things that don’t show up in his numbers) I think that were’re looking at a solid starter for a good number of years in St. Louis. An All-Star? uhhhh….. could be.The organization has always pushed Carlson.
Yep. As I have said before, for an organization that can be so passive in many ways (trade deadline and free agency), they can be very aggressive when it comes to prospects. Overly aggressive IMO. I am sure they felt covid forced their hand with Carlson this season, but unless he looks dominant in spring training next year, I hope he gets to start the season In Memphis.
"We all Missed on Randy Arozarena, but @BaseballHQ was Closest"
Reviewing how national analysts viewed emerging star outfielder Randy Arozarena when the outfielder was a prospect with the #stlcards. We at The Cardinal Nation missed, too! (free) https://t.co/tTQaQbvM0P pic.twitter.com/7BRhCLTDNC
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) October 20, 2020
For my own part, here is what I said when I voted for Randy twice in the 2018-19 off season.
#9-Randy Arozarena. People will look at the less than great line in Memphis and dock him, but this is only his second year in the US. He DOMINATED in his stints at Springfield this year and I honestly expect that he’ll be above average next year in his second pass with the Redbirds. His walk and K rates are oddly fluctuating, but the Ks are never super high. I see 20-20 potential, or a 4th OF at worst who can play all three positions. Call him Tommy Pham Lite, perhaps without the attitude.
#11-Randy Arozarena. I think he’s going to have a big (130ish wRC+) year in Memphis next year and make people feel silly for not placing him in the TCN top 10.
I am very happy for Randy. While I understand the angst of our fans we still don’t know if he can sustain this level of play long term or if he is just shining at the absolute best time for him? Time will tell.
If it is any consolation how do you think Cub fans feel when they see guys like Gleybar Torres, Jorge Soler, and Eloy Jimenez rip the cover off of the ball for other teams while the current Cub core continues to gasp and wheeze at the plate? It happens.
This morning, I have already heard from Mets fans upset about them losing Jarred Kelenic and Travis d’Arnaud and them acknowledging that none of them saw Jacob deGrom coming. This thing happens often across baseball, but each individual team’s fans are understandably hyper-focused on their own team’s misses.
September 10, 2019 at 9:25 am in reply to: Vote here for 2020 top-50 Cardinal prospects#105744REPLY
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gscottar
ParticipantPaid – Annual
4. Arozarena
5. Nunez
6. MonteroThe post above was from September 2019. I had Randy ranked 4th in our system. I did think highly of him but I still can’t fault the organization for the trade when we have yet to see Liberatore yet. I hope all of this doesn’t put undue pressure on Liberatore. He should just be himself instead of checking the box scores each day to see what Randy did.
I truly feel Mo quietly preferred Arozarena over O’Neill, Bader, Thomas, and Williams. But he got Liberatoreitis.
Interesting that of the 4 outfielders mentioned above, only one was drafted by the Cardinals.
But he got Liberatoreitis.
Over the next 6-7 years, you will be getting this too. Liberatore is the best Cardinals lefty prospect since Ankiel. I think he may be the lefty Waino to anchor the rotation for a long time.
Could be, 25, but we’re woeful on offense and deep in pitching
Yes, so deep that we would have been starting Jack, 39 year old Waino, 31 year old rookie KK Kim and Austin Gomber or Daniel Poncedeleon against the Dodgers if our bullpen had held up in game 2 of the WC Series.
Plus, what’s more available on the free agents market the next couple of years?
When you have a chance to get an elite starting pitching prospect, you do it.
That starting pitcher would be fine if you didn’t have a queue of starting LH pitchers in the system already and you didn’t rank in the lowest 25% in MLB in runs scored per game in 2020. And Arozarena wasn’t one of your 2 top young outfielders with a very large donut hole beneath them.
There’s not a queue of LH starting pitchers, if you understand the need for starters that happens every year. Thompson is the only one I’d peg as a shot at being an average or better starter.
Arozarena was not one of the top 2 young OFers. He was third at best after Carlson and O’Neill. I understand that it may seem like a good time to revise history, but almost no one had him better than Tyler.
O’Neill at Memphis before being called up – .265/.325/.517/.842
Arozarena at Memphis before being called up – .358/.435/.593/1.028
I don’t know if you had O’Neill as a better prospect than Arozarena, 25, but I sure didn’t.
Lefties who can start (in the queue) –
Kim
Cabrera
Gomber
ThompsonO’Neill at Memphis at a year younger than Arozarena: .311/.385/.693/1.078
2018-19 stat line in Memphis:
O’Neill .294/.362/.626/.986 37 HR, 89 RBI
Arozarena .292/.379/.465/.844, 17 HR, 56 RBIs
They were on the same team for both of these years, and Arozarena had 594 PA while O’Neill had 439. If you prorated Tyler’s stats to the same plate appearances he would project to 50 HRs and 120 RBIs.
Lefties who can start (in the queue) –
Kim
Cabrera
Gomber
ThompsonKim was signed for two years, so he could well be gone before Liberatore reaches the big leagues. Cabrera is not a starter. Gomber had missed the much of the 2019 season at the time of this trade. Thompson was a rookie who had pitched 15-1/3 innings at the time. Hindsight sure does a number on your prognostication skills, doesn’t it?
bccran wrote:
I don’t know if you had O’Neill as a better prospect than Arozarena, 25, but I sure didn’t.
According to this community of prospect voters in 2019 (O’Neill’s last year eligible):
3. O’Neill
13. Arozarenahttps://thecardinalnation.com/forums/topic/2019-st-louis-cardinals-top-prospects-voting/
bccran, your support of Randy over O’Neill was not visible in our 2019 community voting. I checked the above thread. Here are the players you voted for at various spots. Note that Randy was chosen at #13 due to others’ votes, as he was not among your favored players through at least #15.
You did not participate in all early rounds, just the following. So you did not comment one way or another about O’Neill at #3. I do see that Thomas appeared on your list ahead of Randy.
Gorman 2
Helsley 78-9-10
Helsley
Nunez
Cedeno11-15
Woodford
Thomas
Edman
Baker
GingeryThose who have followed Randy will note three prolonged hot streaks that have defined him. The first was the stint in Mexico. The second his work in Memphis after being average in Springfield. Now the spotlight is brighter.
These streaks have been intertwined with numbers that project a lower ceiling than the superstardom many are awarding him.
I have always used the Bernard Gilkey comp, and it rings truer than ever. By the way, I trade Gilkey for Ankiel any day of the week.
Along with the athleticism, those Memphis stat lines show us that we cannot give up on O’Neill yet. He looks like a guy where it will come together, and his production will take off.
No guarantees, but the potential is there. Might be some rough going, but once it starts to click, look out. He has a chance to be a cult hero ala Mr Voit.
bikemike, one has to wonder if they would be gun shy trading O’Neill due that very risk – that it might backfire.
But how long is a fair test? I think most would agree O’Neill was not rushed to StL like Carlson was. O’Neill first came up three seasons ago and now has 450 MLB plate appearances.
P.S. 2021 will be his last season before he becomes eligible for arbitration and his salary starts going up. Without more consistent production, he could become a non-tender candidate 12 months from now. Obviously, that would be at the complete other end of the spectrum from what you noted could happen in 2021.
What follows is very interesting, as it seems to conflict with the common narrative that Ozuna was anxious to return to StL.
As a generic comment not specific to Ozuna, family considerations can be a big deal for some players. Yet most of the time, we never hear about it (nor should we, as it is not our business, IMO).
Included here is some discussion of whether or not Marcell Ozuna was happy in STL. Bottom line: he was much happier (and played better) when his family was around, and that didn’t happen often. Was it because of the city? I don’t know, but I know he wanted to be closer to Miami. https://t.co/owtg9PNBox
— Jeff Jones (@jmjones) October 21, 2020
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