- This topic has 312 replies, 23 voices, and was last updated 5 years, 7 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
I went into the Ozuna trade thinking this dude just had a career year, so I was skeptical after the trade was announced what his next two seasons production would be.
“Would you have traded those two for Marcell Ozuna?”
I didn’t know those two at the time of the trade like the many prospect gurus on this site. Sure I can read their player page numbers but I also need to lay eyes on their pitch types. I’m just now able to form my opinion on Oviedo, that I can feel comfortable with. So I just wouldn’t have known, had to trust the FO at the time.
Hitter stats I feel much more comfortable with, on prospects, especially if their spray charts are available. Did you like the trade at the time it was announced?
jj, here are a couple of my comments from right after the trade on here:
I liked watching Mags, but realistically he was a speed guy whose peak was probably an average hitter with little power and good defense. Alcantara is potentially good, but we don’t lack power arms in the system.
Ozuna is a clear upgrade over Piscotty from last year. The question is…is 2017 what we can expect the next two years?
I’m also curious what the OF rotation will look like. One of Piscotty and Grichuk seems likely to go, if not both…and there’s still Bader to look at. Hopefully Pham looks closer to his 2017 self than before and the Of should be pretty good.
This. Alcantara could turn into an ace, Sierra could be Kevin Kiermaier lite and Gallen could be a mid rotation starter while Ozuna looks no better than Piscotty would have, which could make this trade look silly. Or we could have just gotten a middle of the order bat and solid defender for a reliever, back end starter and reserve OF.
I was fairly high on Alcantara, less so on Gallen and I had a weird sense of not trusting Flaherty long term (earlier in that thread I had said I felt Flaherty was my most tradeable of Alcantara, Hudson and Flaherty). Guess my prospect sense isn’t perfect. Ha. But still, I was cautious about Ozuna’s 2017.
Dean is under control next season, so maybe he’ll get a shot next year (if not the latter third of this shortened season).
As part of the Martinez transactions, Dylan Carlson has been optioned out.
We have activated RHP Carlos Martínez from the IL and optioned OF Dylan Carlson to our Alternate Training Site.
To make room on the 40-man roster, RHP Ryan Meisinger has been designated for assignment.
RHP Daniel Ponce de Leon will serve as the 29th man for today’s doubleheader pic.twitter.com/GIwO921mBK
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) September 8, 2020
My take on Carlson netted out.
Two-edged sword with Dylan Carlson. He won't see the MLB-quality breaking pitches on which he needs to improve while back in Springfield, but there are only 20 days left in the season and the #stlcards can no longer afford his OJT in 2020. Carlson still has a bright future.
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) September 8, 2020
With this designation, and having been previously DFA’d, I believe Meisinger could choose to be a free agent, but that seems pointless with less than a month to go in which Ryan will be paid MILB $$. Also seems likely he’ll move on to another team after the season.
According to stat cast metrics Carlson should be hitting around 275 with 4 hrs. I think all the fans would be going crazy if a rookie was putting up these type of numbers. Carlson has ran into some bad luck and yes has done a poor job with bases loaded. But do you really think it is going to help him being in Springfield? Based on production of other guys it does not make sense to send down the rookie at this time. Did he looked over matched against The cubs ace?
And we just sent down the guy that leads the club in Defensive Runs Saved! A club that is filled with Gold glove guys a rookie is the best defender!Carlson looked overmatched to me many times, especially on the changeup. And he is not a better defender than Bader.
Thundering44 asked:
But do you really think it is going to help him being in Springfield?
Is that the right question? It is if Carlson’s development is the highest priority. But at what point do his struggles hurt his team (which as we know does not have an abundance of offense)? It wasn’t like Dylan’s recent trend was upward. Getting alternate camp at-bats is better than just a few down the stretch with St. Louis. He will be back, better in 2021.
Carlson had many check swings and dribblers to the pitcher. I kept hoping he would just swing the bat.
I’ve never seen his minors games but at MLB he didn’t seem to use the opposite field very much.
Not sure how stat cast works but I’d be curious how they have Carlson with a predictive 4 homers. It is not ĺike homers are the same as line drives hit right at someone.
To put the 21-year-old Carlson’s struggles into a context, here’s the age at which each of the following Redbirds first posted at least a 100 OPS+ (min. 200 AB’s):
Miller 23
DeJong 23
Edman 24
Bader 24
Goldschmidt 24
Fowler 25
Yadi 26
Carpenter 26
Wong 26And how about some former Cardinals:
Jon Jay 25
Jim Edmonds 25
Allen Craig 26
David Freese 27
Tommy Pham 29Baseball has seen a rash of spectacular phenoms over the past few years, but even the eventual star players aren’t usually successful MLB hitters at age 21. I won’t worry about Dylan Carlson unless he’s still struggling at age 23.
It would be a much more valid age comparison to measure Carlson against high school-drafted players. For example, Matt Carpenter wasn’t even drafted until he was 23 years old!
I get that Carlson is still very young and I agree. I just don’t think this particular comparison is apples and apples, as most of these guys were still collegians at the age of 21. Therefore, it would have been impossible for them to put up a 100 OPS+ season with 200 at-bats as a professional – let alone in the majors – until they were much older, as the data indicates.
I drew a parallel to a player at similar level of experience from the year before. When Tommy Edman arrived mid-season 2019, he was ready to rock. He was coming off two more months of seeing Triple-A pitching, plus having played in the PCL playoffs at the end of the prior season and in the Arizona Fall League, none of which Carlson was able to do. That experience facing the best pitching short of MLB matters.
Remember the 2nd-guessing last year, when Tommy Edman had a good spring but had just 17 career games at AAA? Some wanted him on #stlcards even with no jobs open. Instead, he took 2 months of daily at-bats before his call up. Some did not get the importance of that AAA experience.
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) September 9, 2020
“It would be a much more valid age comparison to measure Carlson again high school-drafted players. For example, Matt Carpenter wasn’t even drafted until he was 23 years old!”
This is a fair point. And in fact I did consider only comparing Dylan to high school draftees. But if I had done so (while using exclusively familiar Redbirds and ex-Birds) the sample size would’ve been awfully small.
And more importantly, by using only high school draftees the average age of the MLB hitting breakthroughs would have actually gone UP by a year, from just over 25 to slightly over 26. High schoolers:
Edmonds 25
Fowler 25
Yadi 26
Pham 29——————————-
Your point about Tommy Edman on the other hand warrants zero rebuttal, Brian. Very well said.
If there are cold Carlson doubters out there, I would offer that Kyle Tucker is a young player with an almost identical career trajectory and prospect profile to Dylan Carlson. Their skillsets, their national prospect rankings in the upper minors, and their AA/AAA track records — all incredibly similar. And Tucker also floundered badly at age 21 in his first taste of The Show.
K.T. 72 PA’s .141 average, .439 OPS
D.C. 79 PA’s .162 average, .458 OPSAt 22 Tucker was solid over another small sample size, and now at 23 he’s playing full time and doing this:
.272/.327/.570 for a 135 OPS+.
I don’t think it’s greedy to expect something quite similar from Dylan Carlson in a couple of years.
I added several thoughts outlined here to some others and came up with this.
My new #stlcards commentary at The Cardinal Nation. "Carlson Isn't Pujols or Maybe Even Taveras, but that is OK". (free) https://t.co/h9Df2ugofK pic.twitter.com/n7NfmNr2FB
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) September 9, 2020
My comp for Carlson has always been Andrew Benintendi, meaning a very steady, above average player who will be a consistent, positive force in the lineup. A spectacular MVP type? Probably not but that is ok.
2020 has been a down year for Benintendi due to injuries but if Dylan can replicate his career, and I think he can, Cardinal fans should be pleased.
That’s a really good article, Brian. Thanks for sharing. I agree that patience will be needed for Dylan. In fact, one of my preseason predictions was that Carlson would be called up and struggle, causing fan angst. Hopefully Dylan is taking daily at bats against the best offspeed stuff available in Springfield and working on what he needs to. Of course none are as advanced as most big league pitchers yet, but there are some good arms there like Thompson, Rondon and Liberatore.
Good piece BW. It seems that by Carlson being brought up to the big stage his stock has fallen in the minds of BW and many fans here. I’m going to be more optimistic and believe that he will over-perform when his next chance comes up in 2021.
Ny said:
…his stock has fallen in the minds of BW and many…
Thank you for the compliments. It is another example where discussion here helps me bring my thoughts together.
Ny, to your point above, that is not the case at all. If you go back and check my writing over time, I have been very consistent in tamping down superstar expectations. His scouting grade in the Prospect Guide is 6.5, which is between an above-average MLB starter and an all-star.
When forced to offer a player comp, which it seems like every radio host wants, I mention Nick Markakis, which came from a scout I trust greatly. The radio guys were expecting me to say Mickey Mantle, I think.
My take is that Carlson was called up before he was ready and it showed. His entire situation is just another fluke of 2020. Nothing more than that.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.