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After seeing Ozuna’s numbers in Atlanta this year and seeing how putrid our offense remains I am even more skeptical of our hitting coaches.
Good point, BHC. But is it also a talent differentiation issue? Plus Ozuna now has
some protection in that Atlanta lineup.Dylan Carlson’s strikeout rate has crossed the 30% line, to 30.8%. That is tops on the team.
Others:
Bader 28.6%
Carpenter 28.2%At the other end:
Molina 10.5%
Goldy 13.0%
Wong 15.5%O’Neill is in the upper middle at 23%. A significant improvement for him.
I bring this up because in the prior five games vs. KC and Pittsburgh, the Cardinals stranded 42 runners and batted .224 with runners in scoring position. In other words, they had lots of chances, but could not deliver consistently. Strikeouts are the worst possible result in such situations.
So if O’Neill has reduced his K rate but is slashing .172/.284/.344/.628 what does it tell us? That’s he’s getting robbed on some of his barreled balls hit?
O’Neill’s batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is a really, really low .182. And remember that he has very good speed on top of it. This suggests bad luck that should improve.
P.S. His hard hit rate is actually up this year from last – 36.4% to 40.4%.
So, O’Neill is striking out considerably less often and is hitting the ball hard more often. Even though the results don’t show it yet, I see good improvement from him.
My broader point is that one has to go deeper than slash stat lines from just 23 or fewer games to get a better look at what is really happening.
It is a smaller sample. You’re right, B. He had a better slash line last year, even though his K rate was higher.
To me a slash line shows production…. in getting hits, getting on base, and power. I guess it’s enough for a simplistic fan like me to go on. BABIP, exit velocity, etc. are nice indicators. But in the end it’s production that counts. Isn’t it?
From J. P. Hill-VEB
having depth is not having good depth. Having good depth is not as good as having great talent. Great talent is a step behind elite production. Do you follow me? The Cardinals, with a wealth of good-not-great players, have a dozen different ways to improve their roster, none of which they’re interested in making.
IMO, right now Edman and Carpenter aren’t hitting well enough to get regular starts. Nor is Bader… Carlson needs ABs to see if now is the time for him to face MLB pitching. We’ll need a spot for Thomas when he returns from the IL, he also needs to see MLB pitching to assess his progress. O’Neil is progressing slowly. Fowler is adding some punch. Miller, DeJong, Wong and Schrock… ‘Good-not-great players’. Goldschmidt is the only one that comes close to being great, and I count two others that have that ceiling.
Ny, good points. Thank you for sharing them. Help is not coming from outside. For 2020, the improvement has to come from within.
In my opinion, nothing would help more than for O’Neill to heat up. In his first 271 major league at bats he’s .258/.307/.464/.761. That’s actually not that bad for breaking into the major leagues.
bc…. DeJong and Carlson were the two I counted as having “great” ceilings.
I count nine hitters at Summer Camp that have the potential to be ‘great’ but have a ways to go to prove it.
I agree, Ny. I’m really happy with the potential of Goldy, DeJong, Carlson and Gorman (someday) in the middle of the lineup.
It would be great if O’Neill could join them. Who else are you looking forward to on the offensive side? Montero? Torres? Nunez? Fletcher? Walker?“IMO, right now Edman and Carpenter aren’t hitting well enough to get regulars starts. Nor is Bader…”
“right now” (the last 7 days), Bader is out hitting every Cardinal, and it’s not even close. Edman has tallied a very respectable .814 ops, and Carpenter .604
So on Carpenter, “right now”, I’d agree.
The team has hit .808 over the last 7 days, a 115 ops+, which ain’t too shabby.
Had mentioned Gorman. With you on Herrera in 2 years or so, and Winn a little longer term. Too early to tell on Pages for me.
Don’t underestimate Pages… I like his upside and IMO he has a chance to become a very good two-way catcher, ala Herrera.
oneil hasnt been hitting the ball hard or getting robbed. Ive been watching, i dont need a stat to tell me something.. Just because you strike out less, doesnt mean you will hit the ball hard. I want oneil to succeed but it takes more than just not striking out. He just seems to be struggling with offspeed pitching, trying to guess and such.
bccran, I understand your dissatisfaction with the offense. I think we all are dissatisfied to some degree but you never really offer any realistic solutions. Sure it would be nice if we just went out and got Arenado, Lindor, Machado, Harper, Stanton, and Betts but how does that work with the payroll budget?
“Well the Cardinals can afford to do whatever they want”. I would agree they could probably afford to do more than they are doing but every team has limits so I prefer to operate within the limits of the reality that I think the organization is going to operate in.
I wrote a post on this site some time ago about how I felt the Cardinals were kind of the Giants of the NLC, meaning that we were boxed in payroll wise by having too many over age 30 players with cumbersome contracts. I stated that we were probably boxed in until 2022. I still feel that way. I see nothing that has changed that outlook. Last year we were able to win with pitching, defense, speed, and a smart manager. We need to dust off that recipe and use it again until the burdensome contracts are gone and the promising prospects start to emerge.
In the meantime we are going to have to be patient. No doubt the front office created part of this situation but unfortunately it is going to take awhile to get out of it.
gscottar –
As I said previously. Stretch the payroll and sign Ozuna, or trade pitching for a proven hitter.
Ozuna didn’t solve this team’s offensive issue last year and would not this year either. The team is fundamentally flawed due to a few factors: 1) it’s built for pitching and defense. We have at least 3 players whose ceiling is basically average with the bat right now, who are providing most all their value with the glove (Molina, Wong, Bader). 2) The Cards haven’t developed a star hitter at least since Matt Carpenter, and no superstars since Pujols. It’s been a giant hole of guys who can’t hit great. Losing Oscar Taveras was a major loss in more ways than one.
I would contend that loading up on the bats would leave this team much like 2016 where the defense and pitching continually let them down. In a mid market climate, any payroll mistake is exacerbated and the Cards made a few blunders in the last few years (Fowler, Leake, Cecil, Holland) and some other questionable moves (Miller, Yadi, Waino in 2014, even Mikolas extension looks shady now) that leave them with basically no ability to add a big bat the only way they have been able to lately.
bcran-
Stretch the payroll? Well if that is all it took then I guess every team could be the Yankees.
Dewitt gives the front office a budget to work with. It is the job of the front office to build a competitive team with the budget they are given. Unfortunately they have made some mistakes the last few years with free agents and contract extensions that we are still paying the price for and will continue to for at least another year.
I don’t think DeWitt is going to allow the front office to try to fix their mistakes by just spending more money. He just isn’t going to do it.
Where was Stanton going to fit into the payroll?
Right where Goldy is occupying now. It’s not like they would have taken on both Stanton and Goldy.
I wonder how much input Matheny had for some of these bad signings. I’m not looking for somebody else to blame besides Mo. Just wondering about it. When he was here I remember thinking that MM doesn’t have the ability to evaluate talent meaning that he can’t tell a gifted player from a mediocre player. I don’t think there have been any more wasted signings since Matheny left.
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